The War in the Ukraine

drowingfish said:

no indication at all that russians suffered heavy casualties, or any units cutoff and surrendered en mass, which usually happens when you have a disorderly retreat under pressure. so far it seems to be orderly retreat to pre-dug positions.

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I mean, the territory taken is like 3km^2, you cant fit that many people there

drowingfish said:

the russian army likely did nothing, but pre-dug positions would have been constructed by wagners further back, thats why they are running that way.

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I think it becomes clear with these map:


Yesterday Prigozhin uploaded a video which is interesting as it explains quite well the AFU strategy as well as Wagner's original plans, which seem to have been cut by the Russian MoD.
Either way Wagner and the MoD according to Prighozin have very different approaches.
Wagner seems to focus on controlling heights, while the army focuses on localities. So they hardly tried to reinforce the heights by creating a defensive line in the cities.
Prigozhin insults them quite a bit in the video, it also seems to confirm that the army is still obsessed with the idea of creating "pockets".

You can watch it here with English subtitles.

KYli said:

With the entire Western powers supporting Ukraine against Russia and Russia self-handicapped by not mobilizing and not enacting wartime production, the outcome of recent defeats is all but certain.

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Russia is not in a war economy, but it is not in a peace economy either. There are some special regulations and laws, for example the defence industry has to go first in equipping raw materials and machines.
In general, it is neither a "war" nor a "peace" economy, it is a "SMO" economy, i.e. a half-hearted effort like everything around the "special operation" ...

Dark Father said:

A new military package for Kiev.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1657303247097405441

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Leopard 1 vs T-62
70s are back

The missile attack on Khmelnitsky by the Russian Armed Forces may have been aimed at the permanent deployment point of the 19th Missile Brigade, the only unit within the AFU.
This unit, most likely after exhausting its stock of Tochka-U missiles, is gradually being re-equipped with Himars and M270 MLRSs.
Therefore, there is a non-zero chance that the strike may have resulted in the destruction of a depot with ammunition for these systems.

(from Rybar )

Atomicfrog said:

Would be a long shot.. they are not able to use the datalink correctly between US fighters, imagine with Soviet ones... but for helping a patriot battery it could be something.

I would put my money on Russian flying without paying attention into a new sam system range.

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Most likely with AAM. Do you think it really is that far fetched?

There is no Su-35. They had the revised update. so this should be accurate.

pmc said:

There is no Su-35. They had the revised update. so this should be accurate.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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Says one Mi-8 and one SU-34 crashed. Crew of Mi-8 dead, crew of Su-34 still unclear. Was last updated at around 17:18 GMT yesterday.

Russians doing the FPV thing and sends one to a Ukrainian nest.


Using drones, Russians fired ATGM at a Ukrainian shelter.


Using drones for real time firing adjustment, T-80s and BMPs fire at Ukrainian positions in Spirne.


M777 gets nailed by Lancet.


Another angle at this big explosion. There appears two in fact.

siegecrossbow said:

View attachment 112601
Most likely with AAM. Do you think it really is that far fetched?

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If it was just helicopters and the Su34, then maybe an Ukrainian Mig29/Su27 got really lucky. But to take down a Su35 would he quite a stretch.

The only semi-plausible scenario where I can see any known in service Ukrainian fighter being able to do that would be if it used NATO assets for tracking so it could go full passive, maybe even use terrain masking to better hide from the Russians, and then spammed IR and passive homing R27s once in range.

If the Russians were just flying in a straight line and at constant speed in cruising mode, that would work. And firing at extended range might also have worked in favour of the Ukrainians, since the missiles would have long since exhausted propellants by the time they reached their targets, so should not he tripping any IR based missile approach sensors on the Russian flankers.

The only other possible scenario would be a stealth being used, but that would be such an extreme escalation it would need some extremely strong evidence to convince me, as that would basically be WWIII if an American/NATO stealth killed Russian fighters and helicopters over Russia.

Right_People said:

I mean, the territory taken is like 3km^2, you cant fit that many people there

I think it becomes clear with these map:
View attachment 112598

Yesterday Prigozhin uploaded a video which is interesting as it explains quite well the AFU strategy as well as Wagner's original plans, which seem to have been cut by the Russian MoD.
Either way Wagner and the MoD according to Prighozin have very different approaches.
Wagner seems to focus on controlling heights, while the army focuses on localities. So they hardly tried to reinforce the heights by creating a defensive line in the cities.
Prigozhin insults them quite a bit in the video, it also seems to confirm that the army is still obsessed with the idea of creating "pockets".

You can watch it here with English subtitles.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Russia is not in a war economy, but it is not in a peace economy either. There are some special regulations and laws, for example the defence industry has to go first in equipping raw materials and machines.
In general, it is neither a "war" nor a "peace" economy, it is a "SMO" economy, i.e. a half-hearted effort like everything around the "special operation" ...



Leopard 1 vs T-62
70s are back

Click to expand...

I wouldn't pay attention to anything coming from Wagner. It's still unclear what their purpose is. It seems even western propaganda have bought into the idea that Wagner are some elite unit. The leader of Wagner has no military background, and most of their forces are recruited directly from prisons.

Many nations have experimented with convict armies, the results are almost always not worth the effort. It's laughable that they can be better than the professional Russian army, or even LPR/DPR forces, who have 8 years of military experience and are fighting for their homelands.

At first I thought they were just a PR stunt to get more Russians to sign up, now I think they're maskirovka .

siegecrossbow said:

View attachment 112601
Most likely with AAM. Do you think it really is that far fetched?

Click to expand...

Prigozhin said today it was friendly fire ...

So who knows, Rybar says people saw 6 missile lauches from the Ukranian border, NASAMs but this is their "sources" too

So it actually happened.

There has been a noticeable increase in background radiation in Khmelnitsky, were the big explosion was located.
It is likely that the munitions depot contained British depleted uranium munitions and these materials evaporated into the Ukrainian air with the explosion.