The War in the Ukraine

SolarWarden

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Some of the western trained mechanized infantry in action.
Of course an edited video released by Ukraine but they sure look a lot more professional then the usual slug fest "spray and pray" we are used to seeing.
This is just the localized counter attack equipped with M113's and handful of T72s I can only imagine what it's going to be for Russian forces when the real offensive begins likely at night because of better night equipment and thermals.
 

SolarWarden

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Seems Russians are blaming manpads for downing of multiple aircraft

According to Russian media security services in Briansk region are looking for saboteurs who used MANPADS in Klintsy region​

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There's a closeup of one of the Mi-8's being hit by a missile and the missile looks small and the detonation looks low yield too so Ukraine SF infiltrating Russia and taking down those aircraft makes sense. S300, Patriot or any radar guided missile would have set off their RWR and countermeasures.
 
D

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This is just the localized counter attack equipped with M113's and handful of T72s I can only imagine what it's going to be for Russian forces when the real offensive begins likely at night because of better night equipment and thermals.
Keep in mind the front in bakhmut is around 12 miles from the fortification line and is very likely being deliberately undermanned by the army in order to bleed Wagner as much as possible. Not saying the defense will be easy for the Russians but this particular area isn't really representative of their preparations. They may be totally inept at offensive warfare but they have shown themselves to be pretty capable of putting up a stubborn defense in Kherson and the Kreminna-Svatove line.
 

Right_People

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As if Russia wasn't enough of a wreck already, fully mobilizing will simply send it spiraling into decline till it's on the same level as Brazil (at best). The enormous cost of taking so many people off the economy (perhaps permanently in the case of death) and converting civilian factories to arm them in a reasonable amount of time would be simply unbearable for the Russian economy and society. This is exctly what the US wants as it would further destabilize Russia and maybe even fragment it into several statelets. Remember in the partial mobilisation there was already alot of reluctance from ethnic minorities. Is there really no other way to lead this war to an acceptable outcome ? (for Russia, Ukraine is already finished as a state)
Russia got more than 3 million ukranian refugees (not counting annexed people), all of them slavs, russian speaking, probably even just russian ethnically speaking, so yeah, that point doesnt make sense.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine is having WWII tier losses that will affect the demography much. Ukraine has suffered a HUGE demographic hit, but this is due to people leaving the country, not KIAs.
Russia could also mobilize people and high end specialist and put them in military industries, they did that with some inmates.
This is just the localized counter attack equipped with M113's and handful of T72s I can only imagine what it's going to be for Russian forces when the real offensive begins likely at night because of better night equipment and thermals.
Actually seems like it was not a walk in a park, Wagner has published couple of videos of the later attacks, at least 10 tanks destroyed, there is also another interesting video by DPR taking 2 dozen prisioners after a failed attack.
So the anecdotical evidence could go either way ...

Massive explosion in Ternopil. Guessing they decided to go against targets currently undefended after the Ukranians moved the air defenses for the stunt in Bryansk


Close-up of the explosion in Khmelnytskyi.

I wonder, what happens if you attack an ammo dump that has thousand of DU shells? Would the area become poisoned?
 

Right_People

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The Russian Armed Forces began strikes with cruise missiles and Geranium UAVs against targets in central and western Ukraine around 10pm. Hits in Ternopil Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa have been confirmed.

Rybar's team was able to identify one of the hit sites - this was thanks to sources on the ground, not GEOINT. There is an abundance of fake photos from Iran deliberately thrown in by Ukrainians on the net. Therefore, we cannot say with certainty that the photo on the card was taken in Ternopil.

However, we can confirm with reference to our own intelligence sources that the Ternopil railway repair-mechanical plant was hit effectively. Most likely the plant's facilities were used for the restoration and modernisation of military equipment.

Coordinates: 49.576161, 25.583709

photo_2023-05-13_23-02-09.jpg
 

SlothmanAllen

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Is the downing of those jets and helicopters the impact of Patriot missile systems? I am guessing it is too early to tell, assuming we ever get clarification on the weapon systems used.

Given that Patriot is a family of systems, do we even know what version/implementation of Patriot Ukraine has?
 

Right_People

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Is the downing of those jets and helicopters the impact of Patriot missile systems? I am guessing it is too early to tell, assuming we ever get clarification on the weapon systems used.

Given that Patriot is a family of systems, do we even know what version/implementation of Patriot Ukraine has?
Well them have the Kinzhal claim, so PAC-3 MSE I would bet
Judging by the effect of their use in Iraq by the US, it is likely births in the area will happen with a lot of defects.
Sad, more so if you take into account that even today there is peoplebeing born with problems in Kiev cause Chernovil ...
 
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