The War in the Ukraine

Krasnopol strikes. Many artillery videos have not properly credited Krasnopol, Gran or Kitolov 22 strikes but they are identifiable with blue or green target reticles on the drone viewpoint. The use of these weapons are more common than perceived. Gran is the equivalent weapon launched from a mortar and Kitolov 22 is the equivalent from a 122mm, but these are unidentifiable and lumped with Krasnopol. A bit of irony there in one video using Command and Conquer Red March theme.



2S1 Gvozdika taken out by Lancet.


Another Krab gets destroyed by Lancet.


Two FAB-500 hits on enemy force accumulations.


Destroyed T-64BV

Atomicfrog said:

They have pushed both road a bit, more so near Ivanivske. Maybe it's a relief push for the force in Bakhmut to get out... They have gone back and forth for months on these sections tho...

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my belief is that even if ukraine did not plan for a major push at this time, given the breakthrough that was achieved, albeit minor, they will seek to exploit this. if the russians are allowed to stabilize the front then it would be considered opportunity lost for some.

of course the fundamentals do not change, in order to carry out a successful offensive you need a clear advantage in either firepower or mobile manpower, ukraine does not have an advantage in firepower, and i dont know how much of their manpower is committed vs russian defense, so i am not holding my breath for a catastrophic collapse on the russian side any time soon.

Right_People said:

The Ukrainians used this momentary weakness in the positions to advance east of the canal and take 3km^2.

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It wouldn't be the first time the Ukranians get pulled into a Wagner "retreat" just to get encricled, like it happened in several spots in Soledar and also in Lysychansk.

drowingfish said:

my belief is that even if ukraine did not plan for a major push at this time, given the breakthrough that was achieved, albeit minor, they will seek to exploit this. if the russians are allowed to stabilize the front then it would be considered opportunity lost for some.

of course the fundamentals do not change, in order to carry out a successful offensive you need a clear advantage in either firepower or mobile manpower, ukraine does not have an advantage in firepower, and i dont know how much of their manpower is committed vs russian defense, so i am not holding my breath for a catastrophic collapse on the russian side any time soon.

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There have been no line breaks except in the east of the water channel.
This is the map that the pro-Wagner channels are circulating, it had parts "under Wagner's control" that did not correspond to reality.

This second map is the one from LostArmour, it is quite reliable.
In blue we see the areas taken in the "counter attack" as marked by map 1, in red the front line according to the pro-Wagner channel maps now and in orange the real line before today according to LostArmour.

That is, the Russians or at least the Wagner reported gains that did not exist in reality.
Most notably, the Wagner channels claim to control positions south of the road.
This is totally false, they failed to advance beyond the road.
All in all, mostly nothing happened, another chapter in this soap opera.

DPR artillery firing at discovered Ukrainians groups at Avdiivka. Much usage of night equipment among Russians.


'Military expert of Ukraine Oleg Starikov said that Russian planning bombs are a nightmare problem that the Armed Forces cannot solve
▪ "FAB-500 – is three hundred kilograms of TNT. It's about five times bigger than 152 mm in a shell".
▪ "ABOUT FAB-100 ( the planning bomb ) is cheap. FAB-100 they have in general. They throw it, and the planes are not included in the air defense zone."
▪ "They throw 20 bombs a day".'

Lighter FABs such as FAB-100 and FAB-250 can be launched at even greater distances than FAB-500 and a plane can carry more of the lighter bombs as much as the number of aircraft hard points can allow. If you are already complaining about 20 bombs a day, then the sheer damage they wreak is something bad.


Ukrainian tanker with a sense of humor.


Russian FPV drone attack.


Russian UAV tracks a Ukrainian vehicle at night to a warehouse. Both are subsequently attacked with artillery and destroyed. Again use of night equipment on the drone.

Stealthflanker said:

The storm shadow is kinda concerning. as it's basically similar as Mugin drones but faster, stealthier and carry heavier load.

I would expect RCS of at least 0.01 sqm. in X-band and 0.1 in S. What Ukrainian would get is i wonder. If the British provides 500 km variant then it would allow Ukraine to strike deep into say Millerovo or Kursk airbase. Or a "symbolic" strike on Kerch Bridge.

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They (Storm Shadow) were defeated in Syria. There was several evidence of intercepted storm shadows wreckage. The only thing im concerned with this development is how the Russians respond.

Was there actually any credence to the earlier talk about Russian activity near undersea cables and infrastructure? This would be a serious response that might force a major escalation from NATO, which the Russians have been sitting and waiting for the entire war.

Depending on the next steps, this could lead to a wider encompassing war that all of us can comfortably call world war 3

One thing notable is those interceptions were claimed performed by Pantsir and TOR systems.

I follow on Twitter a former officer Swedish Armed Forces/Air Defence. He posts daily updates on the situation on the front.

Here's today's, quote:

NEWS UPDATE WAR MAY 11

It has been an interesting day today. Among russian warbloggers and media a lot of rumours have been spread. These rumours became fast worse and worse. After a short while there where actually some kind of panic. Many different sources said that UkrAF had started the Counteroffensive and broken through russian defence lines on many places and that Bakhmut was encircled by the ukrainians.

All these rumours where strengthened by the way russian media and bloggers use Telegram. Everybody shares each others information so together that can create a storm of false information.

During the evening russian bloggers and media suddenly realised that nothing extraordinary happened today. There where a lot of ukrainian probing attacks all along the front. More than usual, but nothing on a large scale. So the panic subsided and everybody laughed relieved at all others who fell for the rumours, even if they also fell victim to the panic.

Yesterday and last night ukrainian forces made some progress SW of Bakhmut. North of Khromove they retook a minor area east of Bohdanivka. RuAF on the other hand took a small area north of Khromove, substantial areas in SW Bakhmut and some minor areas west of Kruta Balka on the eastern part of the Avdiivka salient. But today no changes on the front has been reported. From the Wagner group came the usual claims of capture of 60 000m2 without area specifications.

The most interesting thing today are the nervousness of many russian war bloggers and journalists. Had they been more sure of themselves they wouldn't have fallen pray so easily to today's panic. I believe many are disappointed of the lack of advances from the RuAF during the winter and albeit they hope that the stalemate at the front are due to successful russian attrition warfare, they still doubt it a bit, fearing that the real reason are ineptitude in the russian military.

Many on the russian side probably need one clear undisputed victory to become less nervous. Until then new panic might again very well appear regularly.

I repeat the famous phrase from the Russo-Тurkish war in 1877; "Everything is calm at Shipka", at least for the time being.

Some crazy footage of a Ukrainian Turkish supplied Kirpi as it got bombed by something in Bakhmut as viewed from the ground. I presume it was artillery or more precisely a mortar.


VDV trooper of the 104th Regiment posing with captured NLAW at Svatovo.

memfisa said:

They (Storm Shadow) were defeated in Syria. There was several evidence of intercepted storm shadows wreckage. The only thing im concerned with this development is how the Russians respond.

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It's not the problem of defeat it's the problem of how many they can intercept. You are not expecting 1-2 missiles but many. They'll come en masse and there just not enough Pantsyrs or AD to cover the whole front.

memfisa said:

Was there actually any credence to the earlier talk about Russian activity near undersea cables and infrastructure?

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There just too many undersea infrastructure in European waters. The appareance of Russian ships nearby is not really a strong indication. It just that they will bump into them as there are so many now.

memfisa said:

One thing notable is those interceptions were claimed performed by Pantsir and TOR systems.

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The question is how many they can intercept. not the defeat of the target.

Published footage of the impact of the Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet" in the new Ukrainian EW station "Bukovel-AD". The Bukovel-AD electronic warfare complex was put into service in 2016 and is designed to combat drones. According to the developers, the complex suppresses the GPPS navigation of the Russian Orlan-10 UAVs at a distance of up to 100 km, the usual jamming radius: drones is up to 20 km, the deployment time of the complex is 2 minutes. The "Bukovel-AD" installation is placed on various chassis. As a result of the impact of the Lancet kamikaze drone, the Bukovel-AD electronic warfare complex burned down.