Iran would have proven that it can supply at least 1 month of artillery ammunition to the Russians every 2 months, as is the case with the two ships flying the Russian flag in January, with the capacity to carry 300,000 artillery shells and 1 million small arms each, totaling a very high supply potential for Russia, considering that it still has stocks and production of these ammunition, perhaps even China should be supplying the Russians. This is all according to Sky News
Recently I have seen a number of mainstream journalists and pundits already starting to question whether it is still viable to support Zelensky and how much of a strategic situation this offers for NATO, especially for the US, while China is establishing itself in Africa, Latin America and Asia, especially in the Middle East, now with Saudi Arabia and Iran reconciling.
What I see of neutral opinions or criticism of Ukraine in the mainstream is the West's waste of resources on Bakhmut and now perhaps an offensive in the region. Most likely the losses of the AFU in the region must have been catastrophic, not only in terms of numbers, but mainly for employing their best troops, exchanging important casualties in their ranks for casualties on the side of the Russians who are basically prisoners and mercenaries, in addition to volunteers.
Wagner is many steps behind the elite troops of the Russians, especially the VDV, which in all combats so far, has been at a high numerical disadvantage and still managed to perform successes, unlike Wagner who had a large majority against the AFU in the Bakhmut region.
The Russians kept their best troops out of major engagements, with the exception of the MPR at Ugledar and a VDV troop and motorized troops at Kremmina-Svatove. Troops like Spetnaz, other VDV, reserves and troops in training, receiving the modernized Ts variants are in reserve, out of action.
What is professional about Ukraine are the 11,000 who are completing training in NATO countries, which is ridiculously low for an offensive in the spring, in fact one that may not even be by the AFU's own will, given that it is practically a NATO offensive. Ukraine is under pressure to launch a counteroffensive, even if it may not have the best capacity to mobilize good troops for such an operation.
I see that if such a Bakhmut offensive takes place, along with the spring one and they are unsuccessful, I see that several NATO leaderships have begun to "declare victory" and progressively withdraw from Ukraine. Without NATO support, Ukraine will not have the slightest chance of resisting the Russians, who still have a lot of material in their reserves and are now receiving ammunition by the hundreds of tons from Iran and will probably receive it from China.
Some are saying that the Russians replaced the Sosna-U and PMT second-generation Catherine optics on both the T-72B3 and T-90M with Iranian or possibly Chinese second- or third-generation optics, while the 1PN96MT-02 (T- 62MV+, T-72B4 model 130 BTRZ and T-80BVM) would have components produced in Belarus but now being produced entirely in eastern Russia.
In short: depending on the results, we may see more and more decisive support from Iran and China in favor of the Russians and less and less from NATO for Ukraine, not least because NATO in Europe is practically running out of stock.
Tanks, for example, NATO in Europe will only be able to send Leopard 1, TR-85, PT-91 and perhaps some remaining Leopard 2A4s, as the best existing Leopard 2A5, 2A6 and Challenger II are being modernized to standards that will most likely countries will not defer to Ukraine if it is unsuccessful with the currently shipped shipment, so they will not ship Challenger 3, Leopard 2A7 or Leopard PL.
The only one that will be able to maintain a regular shipment of material will be the USA, whether sending equipment from its stocks, such as M1 and even M60, in addition to M113, Bradley and the like, or even acquiring Soviet MBTs from other countries, as they say is the case of Morocco send a few dozen T-72s to Ukraine.
I don't see it difficult for Russia to end up operating Chinese components in its tanks, such as APS(GL-5?) - there was even an acceleration in the development of the Arena-M, scheduled for 2024 - optronic components, drones and even equipment with reverse engineering, such as Javelin and NLAW, which would be a huge boost for the Russians as NATO will begin operating the Trophy, making their MBTs immune to Russian ATGMs, but still vulnerable to high-angle Top-Attack weaponry. Such NATO equipment is already being shipped to Iran and even Russian companies for evaluation and reverse engineering.
