The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Wow, I just pu together the picture about the events in Vuhledar, and the strategy of the Russians.

View attachment 108743

This is not a bomb, this is a demining vehicle.

The Russians send these on the road to blow up mines - ot loaded with air blast, non cratering munitions.

Most likelly the vehicle drive up and down on the target area, and if blown up then they send another one.

Afterwards they sent the units there, but in meantime the Nato trained units with Nato provided munitions mined with artillerythe road.



So, next time the Russian army will use remote controlled demining vehicles on the roads in the front of the convoys - that is the only way to make sure ther is no mines on the road.
The one full of explosives is a rolling bomb, the one in the video full of sand bags making is way in a minefield is looking like you say. Sand bags to protect the center fuel tank and prevent it from turning over.

It's still quite a dumb and expensive way to open a road, using a mine roller and plow in front of a vehicule would be way better... at least it would make a way longer path than just blowing itself up. It look like a desperate measure.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bakhmut are already done deal. It is just question of time. There is mud season starting and Ukraine retain only mud road to supply(and in range of Russian artillery). Due to this attrition rate should be really ugly for Ukraine right now(there plenty of videos from Ukrainian side about state of supply road that they use now).

Another next tought battle would be for Chasov Yar and heights to the north of it. It has dominating height, control of which mean control of territory up to Kramatorsk.
i dont see it that way, yes ukrainian attacks can get bogged down in mud, but so did the germans during the relief/breakout operations of the korsun pocket under even more unfavorable conditions, and they got out nonetheless. the russians are defending lands that they just conquered, they are very lightly fortified and not mined, it is very likely that under the weight of ukrainian counterattacks they will be giving back some of their progress. russia's only viable course of action really is to use heavy artillery, since ukrainian progress will likely be slow due to terrain and lack of preparation.
 

tank3487

Junior Member
Registered Member
i dont see it that way, yes ukrainian attacks can get bogged down in mud, but so did the germans during the relief/breakout operations of the korsun pocket under even more unfavorable conditions, and they got out nonetheless. the russians are defending lands that they just conquered, they are very lightly fortified and not mined, it is very likely that under the weight of ukrainian counterattacks they will be giving back some of their progress. russia's only viable course of action really is to use heavy artillery, since ukrainian progress will likely be slow due to terrain and lack of preparation.
I do not say that they would not be able to "get out"(there is still mud road open). I just say that current front configuration mean extremely unfavorable attrition rate for Ukrainian troops. This is why US had already proposed to abandon Bakhmut and retreat to more favorable defense positions.

It is unlikely that Ukraine would be able to perform offensive in the area with high concentration of Russian forces. Especially with air and artillery advantage that Russia do retain.

Ukraine can try offensive on other directions to find weak link in defensive positions of Russian forces. If they do have enough troops, but I doubt about any such effort around Bakhmut.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
I do not say that they would not be able to "get out"(there is still mud road open). I just say that current front configuration mean extremely unfavorable attrition rate for Ukrainian troops. This is why US had already proposed to abandon Bakhmut and retreat to more favorable defense positions.

It is unlikely that Ukraine would be able to perform offensive in the area with high concentration of Russian forces. Especially with air and artillery advantage that Russia do retain.

Ukraine can try offensive on other directions to find weak link in defensive positions of Russian forces. If they do have enough troops, but I doubt about any such effort around Bakhmut.
but taking out a sizeable ukrainian force was a major objective in the offensive on bakhmut. if the defenders are allowed to slip out and regroup around charsov yar, then it will become an even more difficult objective to take. that is why i said earlier that it is better for russia to surround bakhmut as early as possible, then let the mud bog down ukraine counterattacks and breakout attempts, without even having to stormt he city any further. full encirclement was not achieved before the thaw and now they are limited to attacking build up areas.

Ukraine is indeed doing the russian military a favor by committing to a counterattack at this time (i am assuming they are serious), but this is certainly not what the wagner wants to see, getting caught before finishing their business in bakhmut. i highly doubt wagner has the means to construct defenses rapidly, they will have to resort to some form of elastic defense, combined with fortifications further behind the line and ample artillery support. request should also be made to strike deep into ukrainian lines with long range artillery and missiles, this is because ukraine is putting together this counterattack hastily, when that happens they are more likely to have omitted certain precautions such as dispersion of troops and material, making them juicy targets.

this is also why i am saying the better coordinated side will win this round, and since neither sides are well coordinated then it is the less junk one that will win.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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I'm just going to post this link because there are so many and I'm not going to waste my time on it.
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Russia has fired missiles that Ukraine cannot intercept. For the first time, 6 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal Daggers were launched at once - Air Force
“Everyone knows what kind of missiles these are, the MiG-31, the daily alarm in Ukraine, which some people no longer comply with. And today these planes did not just fly. And they released as many as 6 "Daggers". I don't recall so many "Daggers" being released during this war at once,” the speaker noted.

However, he adds that, according to intelligence data, there are not many missiles of this type in Russia - as many as 50. The invaders also carried out 6 launches of Kh-22 - missiles of the most destructive strength with a 950 kg warhead. Ukraine cannot intercept these missiles either.

The Russian Federation used two more types of missiles to damage air defense forces.

“Kh-31 and Kh-59 - 8 of these missiles were launched, they did not hit the target, counteraction was organized. The invaders' objective was to hit the air defense systems, and those missiles didn't fly,” said Ignat.

The main targets of the attack, provisionally, are civilian infrastructure facilities. Ignat also emphasized that Russia's tactics have not changed: since the first days of a full-scale war, it has been attacking from different sides.

Sem-t-tulo2.png
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think its mostly missile stocks are running low than changing generals.

Why would changing generals affect the intensity of missile attacks when it makes no sense to stop/slow them down. The only difference the change of generals did was on September when Surovikin took command, and that was because Putin himself decided to start doing missile attacks. It was a strategic choice at that time

Now, however, it doesn't make sense. So most likely the reason is that missile stocks are running low IMO. Because if not, why would any military in the world would willingly lower their intensity of missile strikes?
According to M. Koffman, the majority of the cruise missiles Russia has been firing lately are newly built. Therefore, the monthly number of missiles they fire is probably close to their production rate.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The one full of explosives is a rolling bomb, the one in the video full of sand bags making is way in a minefield is looking like you say. Sand bags to protect the center fuel tank and prevent it from turning over.

It's still quite a dumb and expensive way to open a road, using a mine roller and plow in front of a vehicule would be way better... at least it would make a way longer path than just blowing itself up. It look like a desperate measure.


Many mine could detonate on the second/third vehicle.

Means if they use human operated tanks then they can blow up.


Most likelly it is a cost benefit calculation . Maybe the cost of the BMP smaller than the proper remote mine clearing vehicle. And it blens well.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
but taking out a sizeable ukrainian force was a major objective in the offensive on bakhmut. if the defenders are allowed to slip out and regroup around charsov yar, then it will become an even more difficult objective to take. that is why i said earlier that it is better for russia to surround bakhmut as early as possible, then let the mud bog down ukraine counterattacks and breakout attempts, without even having to stormt he city any further. full encirclement was not achieved before the thaw and now they are limited to attacking build up areas.

Ukraine is indeed doing the russian military a favor by committing to a counterattack at this time (i am assuming they are serious), but this is certainly not what the wagner wants to see, getting caught before finishing their business in bakhmut. i highly doubt wagner has the means to construct defenses rapidly, they will have to resort to some form of elastic defense, combined with fortifications further behind the line and ample artillery support. request should also be made to strike deep into ukrainian lines with long range artillery and missiles, this is because ukraine is putting together this counterattack hastily, when that happens they are more likely to have omitted certain precautions such as dispersion of troops and material, making them juicy targets.

this is also why i am saying the better coordinated side will win this round, and since neither sides are well coordinated then it is the less junk one that will win.

Despite the media impression, a lot of it Wagner's fault, Wagner is not alone around Bakhmut. There are units of Russian Aerospace aka paratroopers aka Spetnaz, along with select units of the LPR and DPR. They solidify the flanks, provide artillery support and cover the logistics. Russian Aerospace are located around the south of Chasov Yar. The paratroopers were behind the defense of Kherson, and most notoriously, the fire trap known as the Penis of Kherson. So the non Wagnerites in the area, all know to play defense.

Also the fronts in Limansky, Kupyansk, Avdiivka, Seversk, Kremennaya, Marinka, and even in Ugledar are flaring up and intensifying. They are going to draw reserves one way or another from the AFU. I am especially looking at Avdiivka, which has vulnerable supply lines and is also in a nasty pincer.
 

wilhelm

New Member
Registered Member
According to M. Koffman, the majority of the cruise missiles Russia has been firing lately are newly built. Therefore, the monthly number of missiles they fire is probably close to their production rate.
Michael Koffman?
Michael Koffman who is A Fellow of the Washington DC based think-tank Center for a New American Security which is funded by Northrop Grumman?

I'm not having a go at you Zichan, and I know you said "according to" ..but..

This conflict has amazed me how often people quote paid "analysts" who belong to organisations that are hopelessly and obviously slanted, and indeed who's very foundational goal is to spread a particular "message"..as if what they are saying is not propaganda, but The Truth.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Maybe they choose to use more missiles now to be sure to saturate air defences. Ukraine air defence have probably adapted themselves to the geran and cruise missiles making small missiles barrages probably less effectives.

Way better to wait for them to repair most before destroying them again.

The Russian attacks against Ukraine infrastructure is only intended to knock out those infrastructure as a secondary objective. The primary objective is to exhaust Ukrainian AD ammo inventory and to expose Ukrainian batteries to do a semblance of SEAD and DEAD. Not sure if Russia has the ISR capabilities to try to back track Ukrainian missile replenishment efforts to try and find their missile stashes for direct attack.

With that primary objective in mind, large, sporadic missile barrages makes far more sense over low intensity continuous attack.

It may not be a co-incidence that this new mass infrastructure attack happened shortly after footage surfaced of new British supplied SAMs being transported in Ukraine.

It may also be part of the Russian build up activities for either the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive to relieve Bukhmut; and/or Russian’s own spring/summer offensive elsewhere so that they could deploy the VKS fixed wing fast jet fleets more freely.
 
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