The War in the Ukraine

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
They are trading lives to buy time. The problem is that it’s unclear what they are buying time for.

It made some sense if they are actually going to get all the promised modern western armour in the quantities promised at the times promised, so they would have been trading infantry lives to buy time to train up their armoured crews for the big spring offensive.

The problem is that the vast majority of the promised armour are turning out to be empty words only, with countries finding all sorts of excuses on why they cannot provide the promised armour ranging from ‘heartless Germans said no!’ to ‘All our tanks are actually broken’ to ‘We won’t sent our old tanks until America deliveries us newer and better replacements first’.

But Ukraine’s infantry losses are real and mounting, and they are depleting their reserves just as the Russians are gearing up for their own spring/summer offensive. To me, it looks like the Russians are in no hurry to interrupt Ukraine as they are making this giant strategic mistake, and are happily milking this gift cow for all its worth for as long as Ukraine is willing to keep pumping in enough lives, even if it means they push back their own offensive.

So in a way, it is working in delaying the Russian offensive, but the problem is what happens next, as the Ukrainians would be drained, bloodied and depleted and without much new western armour to make up for their losses. All the while the Russian regulars are rested, re-equipped and had a massive manpower infusion from newly mobilised troops.

It’s a bad trade in my book.
at this point its getting personal between zelensky and zaluzhny. if bakhmut is lost then zelensky will look like an idiot. i think whatever offensive potential ukraine has accumulated so far might be prematurely deployed to bakhmut for a counter-offensive against the wagner pincers to secure a line of communication with the city. if zelensky doesnt do this, then he will look like he made a blunder (which he did) then zaluzhny comes in and saves the day with a major summer offensive. something tells me zelensky is no longer a fan of this offensive as it benefits him much less than it does zaluzhny.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
To compensate for the tank losses, T 62s (built in the sixties and sixties) were demothballed. Even BTR 50s, built from 1953 onwards, were put back into service.
Just a spare tought, but the 300k mobilised would need tanks as well, means maybe the mothballed ones are to expand the tank fleet, not to replace it ?
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Wagner raises flag over T-34 monument in Eastern Bakhmut. 55% of urban Bakhmut now under Russian hands.


Bombs being dropped from Russian aircraft. Adviivka being the subject of heavy Russian air attacks lately. This is becoming a new grind pot. To add comment to my previous post, at least three Ukrainian ammo depots have been hit and attacked in that area.


Ukrainian command post destroyed by new generation guided munitions. Possibly referring to Krasnopol.


New tech weapons are showing up in Kremennaya, from Terminators to raiding ATVs. Note the use of rapid fire grenade launcher as the ATVs raid and run, shoot and scoot. Kremennaya has also become a meat grinder but instead of Wagner we are seeing all sorts of high tech weapons including robots in this front. We also see the most T-90s here.

 
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gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russia welds outdated naval turrets to old armoured personnel carriers to make crude tanks as Vladimir Putin's forces face a growing arms shortage.
That equipment is from Russian units from the Far East. They have way worse equipment than the others. As they rotate those units into the combat zone, they bring their own equipment, and it is crap, but it is what they have and know how to use.

The crudely constructed vehicles are being used in a likely attempt to shoot down Ukrainian drones as the armed forces face a severe shortage of combat vehicles and ammunition.
If you read that article you would believe those vehicles are new constructions shoddily put together, but they have in fact been part of the Far Eastern units arsenal for yonks. Should have been replaced but hasn't. The Far Eastern units are still using the Shilka while the others are using the Pantsir for example.

To compensate for the tank losses, T 62s (built in the sixties and sixties) were demothballed. Even BTR 50s, built from 1953 onwards, were put back into service.
So what? The Turks used the M60 in Syria as well. And the Leopard 2A4 did not prove itself to be any better in that conflict.

at this point its getting personal between zelensky and zaluzhny. if bakhmut is lost then zelensky will look like an idiot. i think whatever offensive potential ukraine has accumulated so far might be prematurely deployed to bakhmut for a counter-offensive against the wagner pincers to secure a line of communication with the city. if zelensky doesnt do this, then he will look like he made a blunder (which he did) then zaluzhny comes in and saves the day with a major summer offensive. something tells me zelensky is no longer a fan of this offensive as it benefits him much less than it does zaluzhny.
Zelensky is basically under the thumb of the nationalists at this point, and for the nationalists any sort of retreat is perceived as a failure. So of course they won't retreat.
 
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tabu

Junior Member
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Entering into conflict with the Ministry of Defense and cut off from the possibility to recruit prisoners, head of the Wagner PMC Evgeny Prigozhin has switched to the psycho-neurological dispensaries.
An announcement that now one does not need a certificate from a psychiatrist and a narcologist, as well as fluorogram, to join the ranks of Wagner, was posted in one of the groups of PMCs in social networks. Information about their willingness to hire people who have been treated in the psychoneurologic dispensary was confirmed by recruiters of the PMCs.
Correspondent of The Moscow Times, under the guise of one of the volunteers, contacted the hotline of "Wagner" and reported that he had been treated in a psychoneurologic hospital for a nervous breakdown. In response they sent a formal instruction with the requirements for recruits and offered to self-evaluate themselves using it. "Read the instructions, if everything is normal, we are waiting for you," said the recruiter of the PMC.
According to the instructions, the PMC does not accept people "suffering from serious illnesses, preventing the execution of tasks, suffering from drug addiction, as well as those with hepatitis B, C. However, no certificates are required, and, according to the same instructions, no serious medical examination is performed upon arrival on site: only a rapid blood test and urine test for drugs are taken.
Recruiters explain the drastic reduction in requirements for new recruits on the VKontakte blog as "to remove unnecessary bureaucracy".
"Wagner is experiencing a 'personnel famine': in February, recruitment of mercenaries in prisons and colonies was suspended. Now the recruitment of prisoners for the war in Ukraine is carried out exclusively by the Ministry of Defence.
According to American intelligence, by December the number of Wagner fighters reached 50 thousand, of whom only 10 thousand were professional mercenaries, and 40 thousand were former convicts recruited by Prigozhin.
Since the start of the war, Wagner has lost more than 30,000 fighters in Ukraine, including 9,000 killed, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, citing intelligence reports.
He said more than 4,000 deaths occurred in December, when Wagner units were thrown into the storming of Bakhmut. Of those killed, 90 per cent were former prisoners, Kirby said.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia welds outdated naval turrets to old armoured personnel carriers to make crude tanks as Vladimir Putin's forces face a growing arms shortage.

Military experts say Russia probably has to improvise from dwindling stocks to make up for destroyed or lost equipment in Ukraine.
According to Justin Crump of Sibylline, a company specialising in intelligence and geopolitical risk, Moscow is likely to have turned to naval turret because its navy is far less depleted than its battle-scarred ground forces.
"I suspect it was improvised from naval turrets because they had access to them and the relevant ammunition," he said.
The new vehicle could be used to combat the growing number of active Ukrainian drones or sent to a quieter section of the front line so that Russia could move more advanced equipment closer to the main battles." Taken from YAHOO/The Telegraph
i agree with this analysis. also adding that tanks are likely not supplied to naval infantry but prioritized to army. navy is forced to make do with their own equipment, and also what their personnel are familiar with, since they can now take a sailor and put him right into one of those turrets without additional training. they also likely have good supply of ammo, since they havent used much of it. overall the modification looks silly but makes sense.
 
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