The War in the Ukraine

Overbom said:

Nobody said anything. Actions speak louder than words. If not for something they were afraid off, the West would have sent tanks and aircrafts to Ukraine from day 1 of the war but instead they sat it out for a whole year

Unless you think that the US for that whole year was a friend of Russia, the logical answer is that something was holding them off for last year.


Nothing spiritual if/when F-16 arrive at the battlefield. Tanks and IFV are already on the way in a few months

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Nobody said anything I.e. there was nothing. NATO was afraid of ghosts now they're marginally less so.

Russia's official positon has always been: let them come.

NATO scared of shadows and pussy footing for their own unknown reasons is their own problem, none of Russia's.

Imagine being scared of sending a consumable item such as a 1980 tech tank, against a Germany sized economy lol. US used to have a bigger economy than both USSR and China combined yet the latter two had no fears at all about sending contemporary fighters and tanks for Vietnam.

The increased engagement of NATO in the Ukraine quagmire will further complicate untenable American claims elsewhere in the world.

SolarWarden said:

They will be absolute beast in SEAD missions being able to locate the exact GPS coordinates of a Russian SAM radar the moment it paints the F-16 through its HARM receiving pod. Even if that SAM turns off its radar those HARMS will use GPS navigation to hit that radar which that F-16 through link-16 will be able to share with other flights of F-16's that aren't getting painted.

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SEAD is not that simple. If you become aware of a radar after you get targeted, you are likely dead. SEAD requires very complex strike packages which require numbers, support assets and a lot of competence all the way from pilots to the commanding officers. Even in NATO, SEAD capabilities are anemic outside the USA. Ukrainian F-16s will be quite bad at SEAD, let alone beasts.

SolarWarden said:

To this day you have very outdated Ukrainian Migs and SU's conducting sorties over Bakhmut at low altitude lacking SA, EW and modern RWR now imagine Ukraine F-16's with HARM receiving pod, AN/ALQ-131(v) EW pod and HARM's.

Air to air/CAP F-16's is not what Ukraine is looking for since Ukraine airspace is a no go for Russian fighters that will only become even more of a no go for Russian fighters when Patriot batteries and more NASAM batteries and IRS-T's batteries arrive. What Ukraine wants is fighters capable of flying close to frontlines at mid altitude dropping JDAMS, GBU's, Mavericks and whatever the F-16 is capable of dropping at standoff-ish ranges. They will be absolute beast in SEAD missions being able to locate the exact GPS coordinates of a Russian SAM radar the moment it paints the F-16 through its HARM receiving pod. Even if that SAM turns off its radar those HARMS will use GPS navigation to hit that radar which that F-16 through link-16 will be able to share with other flights of F-16's that aren't getting painted.

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Interesting.

Many forgot that Ukraine inherited big chunk of the CCCP electronic/radar/communication equipment design and manufacturing capabilities.

Since 2014 they had full and unrestricted access to the western special ICs, designs and so on.

So, why anyonw think that the Ukranin MIG/Sukhois hasn't got data sharing, advanced avionics, targeting systems and improved radars?

They improved the inherited Russian radar systems as well, and most likelly integrated them into the IADS.

They had choice to integrate wester radars into the Ukrainans jets.

Means the F-16 and the foreign radars/SAMs degrading, not improving the capabilities.


This can be the most likelly reason why they reqested old Russian fighter jets, they had the industry,spares and capability to refurbish and modernise them, and integrate into the original IADS.

Most likelly any F-16 will be used as a air defence fighter ,chasing gerans and calibrs.


How many cockpit picture we saw about Ukrainan jets ? Anyone remember one ?

Overbom said:

50 pilots ready for training. Could be trained in as soon as three months

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Overbom said:

Don't tell me you don't think that F-16 won't do sizeable damage to Russia? I wouldnt underestimate Western equipment on their most focused battle domain

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There is no way a pilot trained to Soviet doctrine on Soviet aircraft will be able to jump into an F-16 that fast and do a competent job. Anyway, the F-16 has no answer to the Russians firing R-37Ms at long range. The F-16 also requires somewhat more prepared airfields to operate from, which means easier targets for cruise missiles and drones.

That said, F-16 for Ukraine was always going to happen, but they won't be effective until long after the war is over.

B777LR said:

There is no way a pilot trained to Soviet doctrine on Soviet aircraft will be able to jump into an F-16 that fast and do a competent job. Anyway, the F-16 has no answer to the Russians firing R-37Ms at long range. The F-16 also requires somewhat more prepared airfields to operate from, which means easier targets for cruise missiles and drones.

That said, F-16 for Ukraine was always going to happen, but they won't be effective until long after the war is over.

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I was about to say, how will the f16s deal with the mig 31 firing r37M?

FairAndUnbiased said:

TIL. Does this apply only to top attack munitions or all ATGMs?

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All ATGMs will be affected to some degree, the extent of the issue will depend entirely on the degree of control the operator has over the entire flight path of the missiles. So in general, the more fire-and-forget a weapon is, the more likely it will end up striking a tree on the way to its target.

Top attack weapons like the Javelin are probably the worst affected since they fly upwards to dive down on the target. Not only does that make it incredibly hard for the operator to try to estimate it’s flight path to try to find a clear path, the fact the missiles goes up also takes it through the canopy so not only is it far more likely to hit something on the way up, even if it does clear the canopy, there is every chance the canopy will obscure the target from the missile when it comes time to lock on the way down.

The next worse affected missiles would likely be laser beam riders like Svir/Refleks, mostly because those missiles seem to ‘bounce’ around like crazy in flight, so much more likely to hit a tree.

Wire guided missiles are probably the most likely to make it through, but the operator has to be extremely careful with how much movement he puts on the missile else the wire is likely to snag on a tree or branch and snap.

The best weapons to use in those circumstances are probably dumbfire RPGs and the like.

Overbom said:

I see you have high confidence in the Russian airforce. What exactly gives you this feeling when you look back at what happened the last year?

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RuAF didn't exactly have any problems shooting things out of the sky when it was in the air.
Ukrainian pilots are undoubtedly brave and ingenious to fly and achieve results in such hopeless conditions, but that doesn't change the fact that the known a2a exchange ratio is a literal one-sided slaughter.
After all the counteroffensives, Ukraine didn't yet manage to find even a single a/c shot down in a2a combat, nor we heard confirmations of whereof.

Overbom said:

To summarise, Ukrainian F-16 by themselves are not that much of a trouble. Ukrainian F-16 linked with NATO supporting elements are very much a huge danger for Russia

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NATO supporting elements work from NATO airspace.

SolarWarden said:

They will be absolute beast in SEAD missions being able to locate the exact GPS coordinates of a Russian SAM radar the moment it paints the F-16 through its HARM receiving pod.

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The moment SAM radar paints you on the eastern front - you better dive and pray the operator was stingy for the ARH missile.
Big SAMs, unlike absolute majority of A2G missiles, are freaking fast. Fast, and their warheads are big enough to not leave much chances to a pilot of a small, unarmored plane.

p.s. and just to make sure - i somehow missed the moment when just a simple HARM targeting pod started being a seal of a god of SEAD.
All modern Russian jets come with this capability as integral (and routinely fly with modern ARMs) - and what?

SolarWarden said:

What Ukraine wants is fighters capable of flying close to frontlines at mid altitude

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Ukraine wants NGAD?
'flying close to frontlines at mid altitude' isn't exactly healthy for modern low observable aircraft, much less for a 1990s F-16.

Overbom said:

To summarise, Ukrainian F-16 by themselves are not that much of a trouble. Ukrainian F-16 linked with NATO supporting elements are very much a huge danger for Russia

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And what is going to stop them from being intercepted by MiG-31's on the way to the east?.

NATO ISR isn't an anti-missile shield.

R-37M outranges anything they can hang on an F-16. Then there is the fact that not all F-16 variants within Europe can carry all the weapons available.

B777LR said:

The F-16 also requires somewhat more prepared airfields to operate from, which means easier targets for cruise missiles and drones.

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They will require nice fuel, nice runway and nice maintenances. I don't see F-16 running in dirt fields to hide in a barn and lift of on dirt roads. They will be used to protect the west part of Ukraine from a clean highways or airports near shelter for Nato maintenance teams. Lots of system will protect them, probably all the patriots batteries they will receive.

If they are sent in the melee, I cannot see them flying a long time like any airplane from both sides that cross the other side air defence coverage.

Russian aircrafts don't survive in Ukraine coverage and Ukraine aircrafts just don't survive at all east of the Dnieper and anywhere else than low altitude elsewhere. You cannot have range from jdam if you are staying near the ground, LR gliding ammunitions is not of big help even if they are provided.

I'm not saying that having F-16 will not help, it's way better to have them for replacing the Flankers and Fulcrums but they will not fare better.

It will put way bigger chances of a NATO fighter to get shotdown by wrong identification, I would not fly a F-16 anywhere close to Ukraine if they send F-16.

The Lancets having a field time. An M109 Paladin and a couple of M777s fall victim, one at Marinka and the other at Kremenneya.



Russian Grad MLRS attack takes out D20 howitzer and ammo depot.