The War in the Ukraine

sheogorath said:

Victoria Nuland says the Abrams won't be ready in time for the Ukranian spring offensive

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618653524405137408

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It will likely be years before the first Abrams arrive in Ukraine. General Dynamics only has a single factory which produces the tank and can build approximately 12 per month.

It’s existing order backlog already consists of:

- 108 tanks for Taiwan to be delivered starting 2024
- 250 tanks for Poland delivery starting 2025
- Upgrading up to 2100 tanks for the US Army through 2020-2028.
- Upgrading 116 retired US Marine Core tanks for delivery to Poland. These also require a specialized process to remove the depleted uranium armor to make them export compliant. Currently only a single company in the US is qualified to perform this work.

Atomicfrog said:

The diversity of systems used on the Ukrainian side is incredible and troubling at the same time. I give them credit on their adaptability but it's probably hugely inefficient.

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One thing is for certain, when this is all over they will have one of the best tank/armour museums in the world.

colorwolf99 said:

It will likely be years before the first Abrams arrive in Ukraine. General Dynamics only has a single factory which produces the tank and can build approximately 12 per month.

It’s existing order backlog already consists of:

- 108 tanks for Taiwan to be delivered starting 2024
- 250 tanks for Poland delivery starting 2025
- Upgrading up to 2100 tanks for the US Army through 2020-2028.
- Upgrading 116 retired US Marine Core tanks for delivery to Poland. These also require a specialized process to remove the depleted uranium armor to make them export compliant. Currently only a single company in the US is qualified to perform this work.

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I thought we had thousands in storage.

HighGround said:

I thought we had thousands in storage.

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It's not like we store them in climate-controlled buildings and perform regular maintenance on them. We just dump them in uncovered fields.
There's a lot of work involved in bringing these "stored" tanks back into working order. Who knows how many years they've been sitting outside in the wind and rain.

HighGround said:

I thought we had thousands in storage.

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Based on the sources I’ve read, the plan is to send the newer A2 variant rather than the A1 model in storage which is going to be retired.

Even if they do decide to send the A1, there are definitely going to be supply chain and manufacturing capacity issues with modifying them to be export compliant. Like I mentioned in the other post, removing the DU armor can be a slow process and is sole sourced to a single vendor in the United States. Not to mention that there’s going to be lineup of 116 retired Marine Abrams going to Poland in line in front of them.

US Army ret. Colonel Douglas Macgregor said 2 days ago that the reason why the US government hesitated over sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine was the fear of suffering a major embarrassment. As the tank commander of squadron Cougar that led the charge of 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment against the Republican Guard in the famous battle of 73 Easting he is considered an authority on the capabilities of the Abrams tank. In his opinion, the German Leopard 2 tank is superior as a total package, even though the Abrams tank lacks nothing in firepower, accuracy and armor. He points out the gas turbine engine as being the weak point: a gas guzzler and vulnerable to injection of dirt. In his opinion, the fact that the tank can reach 60 mph, does not outweigh the drawbacks of a turbine engine.

I think people really shouldn't take the opinions of all of these retired officers seriously.

Ever since the Ukraine war broke out, a lot of people have been doing what Michael Kofman referred to as "intellectual tourism". Suddenly, there are a whole lot of Russian "experts" around.

Not A1 but the A2 standard will be sent to Ukraine.

Ugledar according to Rybar.

colorwolf99 said:

It will likely be years before the first Abrams arrive in Ukraine. General Dynamics only has a single factory which produces the tank and can build approximately 12 per month.

It’s existing order backlog already consists of:

- 108 tanks for Taiwan to be delivered starting 2024
- 250 tanks for Poland delivery starting 2025
- Upgrading up to 2100 tanks for the US Army through 2020-2028.
- Upgrading 116 retired US Marine Core tanks for delivery to Poland. These also require a specialized process to remove the depleted uranium armor to make them export compliant. Currently only a single company in the US is qualified to perform this work.

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I don't think the Ukrainians have years to sit and wait around for new tanks. If any tanks are transferred it needs to be done within months or weeks, not years.

If Abrams tanks are delivered to the Ukraine, I doubt they will come from the same pipeline as exports. Either they will come from existing US stock, or from refurbished tanks from US boneyards.

The biggest problem I have with Abrams is that NATO are repeating the same mistakes they've been making throughout this war. You see Ukrainian troops today and they have a hodge podge of different small arms, M-16s, AK-74s, FN FALs, and various European small arms. With tanks it's not as simple as transferring vehicle, you also need to provide the logistical support. It seems the Ukrainians are going to be getting Challenger 2s, Abrams and Leopards. Are Ukrainians going to be able to service all three?

NATO should be streamlining the Ukrainians as much as possible, but they are creating problems for Ukrainians for political reasons.

It's the same mistake the west made during the Afghan Soviet war, but ten times worse.