The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Oh what happened. Kozak was running then wham, a one shot direct hit from a 152mm Hyacinth.


Russian paratroopers, along with this BMP-2 and T-72B3, are heavily engaged in this forest outside of Kremennaya. This should go with the recent Terminator + tank footage that there is full on combat going on in the forests around Kremennaya.


Russian BMPs also engaged at Kremennaya.


Likely in the same area. Burning Ukrainian pickup, soldiers of which later in prone position surrendering.

 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Their sorties have been overwhelmingly ineffective. I say this with a fair deal of knowledge on VKS employment during the conflict.

They've performed adequately in a counter-air capacity, and their use of AEA has been broadly competent, but they have utterly failed to conduct an impactful, successful strike warfare campaign at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels.
why sorties not effective? if this approach continue certain things not obvious will become obvious. Now additional Ka-52M from 2023 , more modern drones, the effectiveness of this approach will multiply and this only way fighting this kind of conflict. there is no need to attach much importance to tanks and artillery.
i am sure you understand bit of engineering how difficult is ramp up production from already higher level for engines. who knows we may see hundreds of attack choppers provided pilot training can catch up.
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“In the second quarter of 2022, our company was tasked with increasing the output of its main products - aircraft engines - by 43%, which required the involvement of new personnel as soon as possible. Most of the hired employees are production workers: mechanics of mechanical assembly works, fitters, test mechanics, quality controllers,” said Denis Vaneev, HR Director of JSC UEC-Klimov.
The enterprise is faced with the task of doubling the volume of manufactured products in three years, and the recruitment of personnel continues. UEC-Klimov requires workers of the main production specialties, designers, technologists, quality controllers.
 

SteelBird

Colonel
Tanks aren't going to decisively change this conflict. But I might be wrong, I just don't think how small numbers of a relatively simple armored vehicle, even if it is better or worse, would qualitatively change this conflict.
Tanks is only the first step, more will come in. NATO is testing Russia's redline. If they pass this line safely, they will try another line. Their purpose is obvious; to make Russia collapse.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
It might be the opposite: the maximum of what they can achieve. Russia is constrained by the shortage of the most important military resource - the ability to plan and execute the effective use of all the other resources.

When your "brain" is capable then you can adapt and make up for other weaknesses - much like Israel was able to do early on. When it isn't it doesn't matter how big or strong the rest of the body is. Russian military is brain-dead on a level that makes NATO look like the reincarnation of Einstein. The only question is how much of it is endemic to the military establishment itself and how much of it is caused by political structures outside of the military.

For me the best evidence is no combined assault at the Dniester estuary.
Exactly what strategical importance would be regards of that area ?


The Kerson wasn't strategically significante, due to the very limited logistic capacity. Means it wasn't possible to support a front with a single railway and road bridge, and the width of the river was too big for ferries.


How should it looks if there is a need to transport material on water, in the front of the NATO assets ?
Russia Stronk'ers are the military equivalent of flat-earthers or Wehraboos so their presence in this thread turned it into a useless waste of time. But Russia was still fully capable of capturing all of the coast, the land bridge to crimea and some of the eastern part of the country. Whether it made strategic sense (it didn't) is another question but militarily they could do it if they prepared for it. Wars are won by whoever is better prepared. But to prepare you need to have a brain to develop a plan. Whatever is the equivalent of the brain in Russian military wasn't working. I think this is why their army is moving in Ukraine like an army of zombies.

They want braaaaaaiiiiins.

If so then seriously they invaded the wrong country for that. What a clusterf...



Have something interesting to share? Can be PM if you don't want to make a mess out of it in this thread. Doesn't have to violate any rules. I have my own ins for that. Just interested in observations.
Sure, the west playing 3D chess, and the slavs west of the Elbe simple idiots. At least by your description.


Or the clown in the NATO wanted to push a spearheads into Donetsk at the begining of 2022, and the Russian move was an unplaned, suddend one to prevent it.

For 6 monthe they tried to make a minimum accepatble peace plan, but there was no interestin regards of that in the NATO.

NATO target full dominance over the chessboard.

And what is about this human wave ?
If thez using human wave tactics then we should expect endless mobilisation in Russia .

But there is no sign of that.

Other side, the Ukrainans making cordons around Liviv, and breaking into homes to collect the males strong enought to carry a machine gun. middle aged mans mask as women to be able to shop in the stores.
I would take it as a sign of "ukrainan human wave tactics".
Tanks is only the first step, more will come in. NATO is testing Russia's redline. If they pass this line safely, they will try another line. Their purpose is obvious; to make Russia collapse.

Anther worshipers in the geniuses of the NATO.

There is red line only for Russia, the NATO for 30 years exploring all possible red line, and cross it repeatedly to force everyone else to react.

Until there was a big advantage economically it worked, but this war is the first sign of the end of old world order.

Red line was the accession of the baltics countries into the NATO, everything else is just rubbing it more.


And everyone is so noise on this topics about senseless posts, at the same time there is a third front open in Uledar, by Russia marines :
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Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
Tanks is only the first step, more will come in. NATO is testing Russia's redline. If they pass this line safely, they will try another line. Their purpose is obvious; to make Russia collapse.
I wonder how many F-16 will go to Ukraine, and which model. Allegedly Ukrainians have been training on them for 5 months now. I doubt F-16V, however the newest model of F-16 is at similar level to J-10C and J-10C is very powerful system, at golden helmet J-10C were smashing Su-35 left and right. Even F-16C/D can give good fight against SU-35. If decent numbers of fighters will go to Ukraine, Russia's VKS might not be in good position to maintain the air advantage they have now.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
I wonder how many F-16 will go to Ukraine, and which model. Allegedly Ukrainians have been training on them for 5 months now. I doubt F-16V, however the newest model of F-16 is at similar level to J-10C and J-10C is very powerful system, at golden helmet J-10C were smashing Su-35 left and right. Even F-16C/D can give good fight against SU-35. If decent numbers of fighters will go to Ukraine, Russia's VKS might not be in good position to maintain the air advantage they have now.
Im more wondering how Russian Air defence system(S-400) will handle them. Given how Ukrainian S-300 complexes gave Russian Air Force more then enough troubles.
 

Hadoren

Junior Member
Registered Member
I personally believe that Russia shouldn't launch any new offensive this spring.

The Ukrainians for sure will launch an offensive this spring or summer. They will no longer have any manpower or surprise advantage (given that there are only two real places such an offensive would come - my guess is that it will be directed at northern Luhansk).

I do believe that the Russians have the capacity to defeat such an offensive (if not, Russia is really screwed). After the Ukrainians are exhausted by their failed offensive, Russia can advance towards Lyman or Slovyansk/Kramatorsk.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Western arms supply to Ukraine are handicapped by the fact there is no real plan or coordination beyond trying to get as much over as possible. But even then many, if not post donors seems to be treating this as a cash grab rather than being serious about trying to support Ukraine by sending junkyard grade equipment while claiming brand new prices from the various western arms support funds or getting brand new replacements for them.

Thus beyond costing the Russians more lives, these whip-arounds are unlikely to have major decisive impacts.

Ukraine seems desperate to find some actual wunderwaffe superweapon that will single-handedly win them the war, because they are losing on the battlefield. The map has not moved much, but they have been criminally wasteful of their soldiers’ lives and that reality seems to be finally catching up to them.

The only weapons that might have a chance of fundamentally changing the course of the war are strategic level ones of cruise missiles with range to hit key strategic targets deep within Russia. Things like munitions and tank factories. Because without that kind of deep disruption to Russian MIC, the Russians will just do what they have always done in the past - ramp up production and eventually overcome enemies with overwhelming firepower and numerical weight.

I think that’s probably where we are headed in the summer and autumn once the latest round to tanks and jets inevitably fail to move the needle much.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Their sorties have been overwhelmingly ineffective. I say this with a fair deal of knowledge on VKS employment during the conflict.

They've performed adequately in a counter-air capacity, and their use of AEA has been broadly competent, but they have utterly failed to conduct an impactful, successful strike warfare campaign at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels.

Kinda hard to mount a successful strike warfare campaign at the strategic, operational, or tactical levels when the opfor has essentially untouchable ISR able to perform volume search, target ID, tracking and co-ordinate all the steps right up to final engagement of Ukrainian air defences.

Unless Russia is willing and able to shoot down all NATO aircraft within sensor range of the frontlines, SEAD is essentially impossible for them, so the only way to build the foundations to allow them to conduct any meaningful strike campaigns is to be able to do a comprehensive DEAD campaign, which would be a tall order even for the USAF if the roles were reversed.
 
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