The War in the Ukraine

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Surplus reserves and end-of-life weapons returned to the manufacturer are now being delivered to Ukraine. At the same time, armaments production is ramped up.

Because if Ukraine has to surrender, the Cold War will reign again and the Iron Curtain will be raised again. Armaments production is required, regardless of whether the new weapons are on a Ukrainian, Polish, Finnish or Baltic border. Nobody trusts Russia anymore. Russia invades other countries.
Russian behavior has been remarkably predictable. There were people who thought there would be no way that Russia would invade Ukraine, despite obvious signs and Russia almost explicitly threatening to.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
There is nothing fresh about this force. Russia had a severe manpower shortage at the beginning of this war. Some troops still probably haven't been rotated out for rest. This is an exhausted force, that addressed some of their manpower issues, not solved them.

Listening to Kofman's podcast, supposedly half of the mobilized (150,000) have been used to patch up decimated units and plug holes in Russia's defences, while the other 150,000 are still on their training ranges. The equipment quality visible on the front and in training, is of mixed quality. So there may still be some lingering equipment shortages.

I wouldn't expect any massive offensives. I think it's much more realistic to expect localized offensives like the ones we saw in the Battle of Severedonetsk, Liman, and Bakhmut.
so Russia has another 150k fresh troops waiting to be deployed? that is a lot better than I thought they be doing I thought all of the 300k were thrown in to patch up the frontlines. well if that were the case, then it certainly is not enough for a formidable offensive since they will have to rotate the forces that are currently fighting with the 150k on the sidelines. but it does explain why putin has no intention of doing another round of mobilization.
 

Intrepid

Major
Russian behavior has been remarkably predictable. There were people who thought there would be no way that Russia would invade Ukraine, despite obvious signs and Russia almost explicitly threatening to.
Yes, almost all, or too many, west of Russia have believed or hoped that they could be spared the painful hardships required for a vigorous defense. The West has neglected its armaments for 30 years, especially Germany. Prosperity was more important than good armament.

And if I'm honest, I'd rather be wealthy and not have guns.

It just sucks what's happening right now.
 

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
That was pre-mobilization though... I think ascribing Russian retreat to purely Ukrainian prowess with NATO equipment somewhat obscures Russia's own incompetence, namely spreading themselves over 5 attack vectors with an undermanned force and undersupplied force. We will see how Ukrainian troops fare against a 500K consolidated and freshly supplied force in the spring. I'm betting on Russian breakthroughs in Donbass.

Those Russian troops in Kharkiv Oblast/Lyman-Izium front were strengthen by forces that pulled out of Kyiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast and Kharkiv city and lets not forget that is where the prestigious 1st Guards tank Army was deployed. Russia used its best for this invasion... When was the last time you heard of the VDV? Quality vs quality Ukraine has the advantage by far since they are getting trained to NATO standard and coming back to Ukraine fully geared while Russia can't replace their best man for man in quality that they had at the beginning of this war

Gotta remember that the only "advanced western weapon system" they had at the time they retook Kharkiv Oblast and the Lyman Izium front were a dozen HiMARs. They used donated T-72's and BMP's and other outdated vehicles including outdated NATO vehicles to take all that territory including Kherson. Ukraine takes back huge chunks of their land when they go in the counter offensive it takes Russians months to move a dozen miles costing them a ton of men and their support systems. Mid spring before Ukraine launches its offensive the lines will be somewhat the same with maybe Russia finally taking Bakhmut and Ukraine taking Kremina no significant shifts on the frontlines will occur until Ukraine goes on the offensive with a whole new doctrine of combined arms and finally having night fighting capability with their mechanize formations something they don't have.

NATO can also re-supply via Slovakia, Hungary, and Romanian borders, not just Poland. So do you suggest to also attack those countries too? Only an enduring troop presence can regulate trans-border movements, you can't solely rely on conventional cruise missiles to stymie the flow of goods, aid, equipment across a massive border.

NATO can eventually re-supply via these other nations but right now Poland is thee main hub where current weapon systems are sent to cross over to Ukraine
Plus, NATO (namely USA) can respond by shooting conventional missiles at Crimea as a tit-for-tat, so then what?

Well that is all part of calling NATO's bluff. I mean if I were supreme commander I wouldn't mess around I'd put my nuke forces on high-alert, or whatever DEFCON equivalence Russia has, before I hit Polish border. I would have done this a long time ago instead of always threatening of consequences if US/NATO intervenes. Russia can't afford this rate of losses for too long when it comes to their equipment, men and Ukranian territory which will be even more significant when Ukraine goes on the offensive this spring.

The NATO weapons flood gates are pretty much open now there will be no more concern about provoking Russia to escalate this war. Next month or two the US will announce F-16's to Ukraine or greenlight nations to give their F-16's to Ukraine I mean why should they not all Russia does is bark. US is already training 30 Ukrainians on US fighters.
 

foxmulder

Junior Member
That was pre-mobilization though... I think ascribing Russian retreat to purely Ukrainian prowess with NATO equipment somewhat obscures Russia's own incompetence, namely spreading themselves over 5 attack vectors with an undermanned force and undersupplied force. We will see how Ukrainian troops fare against a 500K consolidated and freshly supplied force in the spring. I'm betting on Russian breakthroughs in Donbass.

NATO can also re-supply via Slovakia, Hungary, and Romanian borders, not just Poland. So do you suggest to also attack those countries too? Only an enduring troop presence can regulate trans-border movements, you can't solely rely on conventional cruise missiles to stymie the flow of goods, aid, equipment across a massive border. Plus, NATO (namely USA) can respond by shooting conventional missiles at Crimea as a tit-for-tat, so then what?

I'm not sure how cost-effective is to use a $1M USD Kalibr cruise missile to make pot-holes in roads that can be repaired for under $5K USD overnight?

Doesnt those road or rail roads have tunnels, bridges? Russia has to call it a war, enlist 1M. Push with everything it got and end it.

I wrote here like 6 months ago that we would see NATO tanks eventually. It took longer than I expected.

Next is F-16s.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Tanks aren't going to decisively change this conflict. But I might be wrong, I just don't think how small numbers of a relatively simple armored vehicle, even if it is better or worse, would qualitatively change this conflict.
I'm unsure why the focus on the tanks, I'd think the wave of modern IFVs would be more significant if only because of the numbers, Ukrainians are getting a few hundred newish western IFVs over the next few months, surely that's more useful than a few dozen tanks.
 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
In Moscow, the strengthening of air defense began, it is not known what this is connected with, but the Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system was installed on the roof of one of the buildings. Perhaps this was done to protect against drones, since it is difficult for anti-aircraft systems to fix them in urban areas.


The artillery crew of the Russian 152 mm D-20 howitzers spoke about their combat work in Ukraine. Howitzer firing range exceeds 17 kilometers


The electronic warfare station of the Ukrainian army came under attack from the Russian Lancet kamikaze drone.


A soldier of PMC "Wagner" spoke about the tactics of taking settlements in Ukraine. During the interview, there was a Ukrainian mine strike nearby, despite this he calmly spoke about the situation in Soledar.


For the first time, a grenade dropped from a drone was shot down in Ukraine. Ammunition dropped from a Ukrainian drone was able to shoot down a Russian serviceman from small arms.

 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Doesnt those road or rail roads have tunnels, bridges? Russia has to call it a war, enlist 1M. Push with everything it got and end it.

I wrote here like 6 months ago that we would see NATO tanks eventually. It took longer than I expected.

Next is F-16s.
They can clearly do so if they want to. Despite whatever US government says, Russia is in no hurry to end the conflict.

Instead of blindly trusting exactly what US and its literal propaganda organs (which are honestly even worse than US MOD because at least MOD has to fulfil basic standards) such as CIA/NED's bellingcat says, look at the reality on the ground.

Ukraine had a 3-5x manpower advantage, Russia still took the land bridge and is holding firm. They've also done so while heavily using older hardware and while playing very conservatively with the VKS.

If we believe nato, Russia has a smaller army yet their only way of fighting is mass unsupported infantry charges, despite this Ukraine needs people at gunpoint to fight Russians. Does this make sense to anyone with a shred of critical thinking? The answer is no, it is wishful thinking from those who need a dozen mobilisations.

You think Russia doesn't know nato tanks are coming and probably F16s later? They know and just don't care. More ways to hold nato in a forever war where NATO's chips are Ukranian lives, and those will eventually become a hot commodity given the direction of the war.

Russia has had a lot of time to observe how American fighting works. And at the moment they judge requesting major external help and/or mobilisation unnecessary.
 
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