The War in the Ukraine

sheogorath said:

A new variant of the T-80BVM was spotted, seems to have reinforced mudguards as well as the anti HEAT netting under the turret

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1617666981263704066

T-72B3 seems to have survived a couple of ATGM hits in the turret

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1617664854969712640

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Both of those tanks were very much mediocre to begin with. Nothing wrong with Kontakt-V, but the coverage on the turret is horrific. There have been better implementations before.

T-80BVM is better I suppose, but the upgrade package is wasted on T-80Bs. Time would be better spent on upgrading the T-80U.

Temstar said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1617819009101221890

Another Russian offensive is now underway, this time it's around Ugledar direction.

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We'll see if it goes better than their last offensive in this direction. They were stopped dead at Pavlivka and could not advance past this town once they took it.

Topazchen said:

All these doom and gloom stories from the Ukranian front you'd think the Russians would overrun the poorly equipped AFU troops.

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The propaganda is strong on both sides. Only the map of territory never lies, and so far, I see a frozen stalemate, despite disproportionate casualties.

Topazchen said:

This somewhat confirms the meat grinder theory. Sit back and just eliminate as many as possible

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Sitting back and attrite forces is usually what happens when you are consolidating troops/resources for a major offensive in spring. It's either you go on offensive, or defensive, so far Russia is in the defensive phase until the spring offensives. Does anyone know when the spring offensive is expected to begin, from which directions, and how many troops involved?

The decision has been made, several European countries will supply Leopard tanks, the USA Abrams tanks. The question of which armaments industry will be able to produce more weapons in the coming months and years, the European or the Russian, will be essential.

Phead128 said:

The propaganda is strong on both sides. Only the map of territory never lies, and so far, I see a frozen stalemate, despite disproportionate casualties.

Sitting back and attrite forces is usually what happens when you are consolidating troops/resources for a major offensive in spring. It's either you go on offensive, or defensive, so far Russia is in the defensive phase until the spring offensives. Does anyone know when the spring offensive is expected to begin, from which directions, and how many troops involved?

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Logically it makes sense that Russia would have a superior casualty ratio due to artillery superiority, but without much to go on for the Russian side other than official figures I'm hesitant to just accept that fact.

Fronts like Bakhmut where Wagner is spear heading with some prisoners recruits thrown in have multiple videos of mass casualties on both sides due to artillery at this point already, if you would say Russian losses on this front is light it would be unbelievable.

HighGround said:

Both of those tanks were very much mediocre to begin with

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Base T-80BV aren't that far off from Leopard 2A4's

HighGround said:

Nothing wrong with Kontakt-V, but the coverage on the turret is horrific. There have been better implementations before.

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T-80BVM uses Relikt, not K-5, though. Also turret coverage is also complete, the one with questionable gaps between the ERA blocks is the T-72B3M since it was the cheaper option compared to the T-73B2 Rogatka's layout.

The T-80U hasn't been touched because its production was more reliant on Ukraine, being a joint variant produced between Leningrad and Kharkiv. Since after the fall of the USSRs, the Ukranians destroyed most of its tank-producing industrial base not related to the T-64's and then the 2014 Coup, there was no point in upgrading the T-80U.

Phead128 said:

The propaganda is strong on both sides. Only the map of territory never lies, and so far, I see a frozen stalemate, despite disproportionate casualties.

Sitting back and attrite forces is usually what happens when you are consolidating troops/resources for a major offensive in spring. It's either you go on offensive, or defensive, so far Russia is in the defensive phase until the spring offensives. Does anyone know when the spring offensive is expected to begin, from which directions, and how many troops involved?

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I think we might see Ukraine strike first. I think these "mobilization" drives are being done to free up the better manpower for the Spring offensive. The most opportune target is in Zaporozhia region, but the most likely is probably along the Kremmennina-Svatove line. It'll most likely be a grinding offensive like the one in Kherson, but Ukraine has access to better intel than Russia, and operations planning will be done by United States. So there will probably be some limited success.

On the other hand, I think Russia's next target will be either from the South, into either Zaporozhia or through Uhledar/Velikaya Novoselka to open up a new axis and target Pokrvosk.

It also makes sense to attack in the Liman direction to push Ukraine into the Oskil river, creating a natural barrier and allowing RuAF free up some troops.

sheogorath said:

Base T-80BV aren't that far off from Leopard 2A4's

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That's kind of my point. Both of these tanks are mediocre.

sheogorath said:

T-80BVM uses Relikt, not K-5, though. Also turret coverage is also complete, the one with questionable gaps between the ERA blocks is the T-72B3M since it was the cheaper option compared to the T-73B2 Rogatka's layout.

The T-80U hasn't been touched because its production was more reliant on Ukraine, being a joint variant produced between Leningrad and Kharkiv. Since after the fall of the USSRs, the Ukranians destroyed most of its tank-producing industrial base not related to the T-64's and then the 2014 Coup, there was no point in upgrading the T-80U.

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I'm aware that BVM uses Relikt. I was referring to the T-72B3 with the coverage comment. The gaps are absurd, and I don't think the issue is cost. I think the issue is production speed, and Uralvagonzavod is just being lazy and unimaginative.

The issue with the T-80 is that RF just doesn't manufacture them anymore period, so you might as well focus on upgrading the tank with more "headroom" for potential upgrades.

If they are going from Pavlinka to Uhledar, it's clearly not an easy task. They need to go uphill 50m in open fields after crossing the Kashlahach river. It's more a marsh with choke points than a river but if it's still muddy it could be a hell hole for armored vehicles .


They have some multi-storey residential building in Uhledar that can cover that flanks easily with ATGM if these are still upright. The Russian will level it for sure or it's a lemming rush from that side.

I mean the funny thing is, I remember back in Summer when RuAF captured Liman, Podolyaka was claiming that Russian commanders "learned" to capture large or strategic settlements.

You surround the city from 3 sides, take out all of the tactically salient buildings (like multi-story buildings) and then seize the high ground of any given city first. The result is that the resulting tactical disadvantage will force the enemy to retreat and you can take pot shots at the retreating columns in peace while seizing the settlement.

The last offensive on Uhledar this Winter didn't really showcase any of those "lessons". The grinding advanced through Pavlivka just emphasized how tactically and operationally poor the Russian military can be.

tankphobia said:

Logically it makes sense that Russia would have a superior casualty ratio due to artillery superiority, but without much to go on for the Russian side other than official figures I'm hesitant to just accept that fact.

Fronts like Bakhmut where Wagner is spear heading with some prisoners recruits thrown in have multiple videos of mass casualties on both sides due to artillery at this point already, if you would say Russian losses on this front is light it would be unbelievable.

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The most videos are work of Russian attack choppers that are consistantly shown on arabic version of rt. so we can presume it is the most used offensive weopon. Now they are creating movie or some advertizment of ka-52 racng with vehicle on snow. The firsr new weopon they mention for new year delivery 2023 is Ka-52M.