The War in the Ukraine

BlackWindMnt

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What? Surely such units would have terrible morale and will bring down the morale of those near them?
Yeah there's a reason why they fled to the EU, so they didn't have to fight. So mobilizing them seems counter productive.

Seems like Ukraine is starting to run out of man in Ukraine again.
 

Overbom

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The US plans to send nearly 100 Strykers and at least 50 Bradleys to Ukraine
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US finalising plans to send nearly 100 Stryker combat vehicles to Ukraine​

In addition to sending Strykers for the first time, Washington is also expected to announce it will send at least 50 more Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Officials cautioned the plans were not final.
To enable the Ukrainians to break through given Russian defences, the emphasis has been shifted to enabling them to combine fire and manoeuvre in a way that will prove to be more effective,” said Colin Kahl, the top policy official at the Pentagon, who travelled to Ukraine last weekend.
 

baykalov

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Russian spy or Ukrainian hero? A WSJ investigation by ⁦Brett Forrest into one of the murkiest episodes of the initial days of the war: a Ukrainian banker turned negotiator gunned down in central Kyiv, and the conflict between GUR and the SBU.

Non Paywall:
Russian Spy or Ukrainian Hero? The Strange Death of Denys Kiryeyev
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Chimpoo

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The Polish seem to be the most realist of the bunch. Funny considering how much they would bark about going to war with Russia before

The article translated from Polish:

CHIEF OF THE GENERAL STAFF

The huge stakes of the war in Ukraine! Gen. Andrzejczak emphatically: "There is a lot of work to be done and we must hurry with it."​


Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army Gen. Rajmund Andrzejczak / author: Fratria
Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army Gen. Rajmund Andrzejczak / author: Fratria


The stake of the war in Ukraine is the security of the Republic of Poland, the eastern flank, the entire NATO - said in an interview with PAP and Polish Radio Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army General Rajmund Andrzejczak

War Stakes​

If we lose Ukraine strategically, politically, militarily or civilisationally, it will have a direct impact on Belarus in a moment. We will push it even further into Moscow's embrace. And then - from the Polish perspective - it will be really bad. The war in Ukraine is a struggle for much higher stakes - for the security of the Republic of Poland, the eastern flank and the entire NATO. The Chinese are also closely watching the sanctions, opportunities and opportunities that this war gives them in terms of energy and technology
— said Polish commander.

Aid to Ukraine? "We try to be an inspiration to others"​

We try to be an inspiration for others. We are the second donor. In addition to aid measured in zlotys, dollars, euros, or in the amount (of equipment), there are many other factors - intangible. Eight million Ukrainians left their country, most of them did so by crossing the Polish border. We estimate that two million are still with us. The Poles behaved in an absolutely phenomenal way. In addition to the political dimension, the decisions regarding aid, the usual human factor was at work. There is some dissatisfaction that this problem does not look like this from every capital
– said General Andrzejczak.

We would like the strategic risks we take and the costs incurred to be evenly distributed. I do not want to conduct an auction, exchange who gave how much. We try to be an inspiration and tell everyone that the region from Szczecin to Rzeszów is a huge challenge, important for our common security
— added Polish commander.

NATO's centre of gravity has shifted from Berlin to Warsaw​

With more than 70 years of history, NATO is shifting its centre of gravity. During the Cold War, Germany and the Fulda Isthmus region were the main area of strategic attention of the world. This centre of gravity is shifting, or rather it has already moved to Warsaw. This is a huge responsibility that rests on us, but it is also an opportunity to use
– said General Andrzejczak.

Situation at the front​

When asked about the situation on the front in Ukraine, he replied:

The secret is that the case is not just a military issue. We must also look at it from a financial, economic, political, demographic and social perspective. Financially, it does not look good. Russia still has money for war. Napoleon once said that only three things are needed to wage war: money, money and money. Before the war, the Russians had $600 billion in reserves, $300 billion were frozen by international financial centers. That is, incurring costs not exceeding 100 billion dollars a year, there is still money for two years. (...) This basic factor in the conduct of war is preserved
— emphasized the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces.

He pointed out that Poland knows from historical experience what human resources Russia is able to generate.
In this country there are completely different standards. It is a powerful country with over 140 million people. Mobilizing 100,000, 200,000, 300,000 people is not impossible. There is no question of social discontent and the fact that reservists will not report to the ranks. If President Putin decides about it, the mobilization will take place


General Andrzejczak (talk) assessed.
When it comes to military equipment, it also does not look good, because the Russians have huge warehouses - maybe not as modern as it turns out - weapons or ammunition

he added, pointing out that "the battle is today about +the speed of abrasion+", that is, about who loses resources faster: whether Moscow, losing 5 percent of GDP per year, or Ukraine, which loses 30-40 percent.


It is a question of loss to resources. Ukraine may simply not be able to withstand this abrasion. Economies of scale matter. Russia is still big and strong
— the commander warned Polish.


At the same time, he stressed that "militarily, Ukraine is a great command and a great attitude of the whole nation."
It's not just soldiers who fight. Absolutely everyone is fighting. There is not the slightest signal that they lack the will to fight or that they want to sit down at the negotiating table. (...) We must honestly say that they buy us time. If we do not use this time properly, if we do not help them to win, if we do not build their capabilities, it will be much worse. It doesn't look good as a whole. There is a lot of work to be done and we have to hurry
— postulated the general.
olnk/PAP

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Chimpoo

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What? Surely such units would have terrible morale and will bring down the morale of those near them?
Interview from the same Polish website :

OUR INTERVIEW. Gen. Skrzypczak: Instead of helping, the West discusses. Where are we going? Are all Ukrainians to die on the battlefield?​

created by wPolsce.pl

created by wPolsce.pl

" Now Russia can only be strangled politically and economically. Putin's political and economic noose must be tightened. If this is not done, there is no military chance that Ukraine will win this war. It is clear that sanctions are ineffective as Russia rebuilds its army. Where are we going? We bet that all Ukrainians are to die in this war? I have the impression that the West still wants to arm Ukraine using the drip method. This allows Ukrainians to fight, but not win. I repeat – all Ukrainians are to die on the battlefield? Instead of helping, the West discusses" - says General Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces, in an interview with wPolityce.pl.




Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak:
The Russians threw all their forces in the direction of Soledar-Bakhmut. They treat these cities as a gateway to Donbass. After the defeats last summer and autumn, Putin redefined his strategic goals. Now its strategic goal is to occupy the eastern part of Ukraine. Putin is convinced that if he occupies Donbas, Ukraine will not be able to develop economically, but will be an agricultural country. Unfortunately, Russia will achieve its goal, because it is now building an advantage. The key to its success will be what it is doing now – they have already moved away from the "special operation", but are preparing for a full-scale war, in which Russia's advantage is to be several times the advantage over the Ukrainian army. The Russians will achieve this and, unfortunately, there is nothing to discuss about it. The Russians will carry out the operation from the north...

You mentioned in a previous conversation with me that this strike will take place at the turn of January and February, depending on the weather conditions and the reconstruction capabilities of the Russian army.
It will happen, it's only a matter of time. Some said that the Russians would strike from the territory of Belarus. But why would they do that? I do not see any military justification here. According to some, in order to cut off the logistics corridor of Ukrainians from Polish. In my opinion, it does not make sense, because the Ukrainians can have the same corridor through Romania, Slovakia, through Hungary. So if someone says that the Russians will strike from Belarus for such a reason, they probably have problems with geography. Why do the Russians need all of Ukraine? Putin wants Afghanistan to be repeated, for Ukrainians to drown Russian occupation troops in blood? Do you know how many soldiers are needed to occupy Ukraine? At least a million or more. The Ukrainians would give the Russians a worse fate than the mujahideen in Afghanistan, so I think that there are no such idiots in the Kremlin who would like to occupy all of Ukraine with the Ukrainian nation they hate. I wonder, therefore, whether some experts are conscious. Can you imagine the occupation of Ukraine by the Russians?


It is known that this would cost the Russians a lot of money and would mean huge human losses.
The Ukrainian resistance movement would be such as has not been seen in Europe or in the world so far, because everyone would help this resistance movement, including Poland. Putin is therefore concerned with eastern Ukraine, also because it has already been heavily depopulated from Ukrainians. Some of them fled the war area, while those who remained there, I have the impression that they do not care whether Ukrainians or Russians will rule there. After all, those Ukrainians who could have escaped from there had already done so, and the rest were pacified by the Russians, some of them murdered. Gerasimov took command of the Russian troops so that it would no longer be a "special operation", but a full-scale war. The upcoming operation will involve Russia's entire military potential on this front. The West is not able to help Ukraine enough to build a military potential superior to Russia.

Can the West no longer arm Ukraine in such a way that it will be able to stop the upcoming Russian offensive? The first announcements of the delivery of Western heavy equipment for Ukraine are already underway – Challenger 2 tanks, Leopards...
Let us not delude ourselves that 100 tanks will change the fate of the war. There were chances to win this war, but the opportunity was squandered in the summer. I said in August: "Beat the Russians, because you will not have a second chance. They will no longer be weaker than they are." It turned out that there were offensives in the south, in the north, but no decisive strike was made that would break the Russian army and now there are consequences. The Russians are recreating their potential. I do not know what the West will do, but even 100 tanks will not change the situation in which the Russians build a several-fold advantage over the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainians will not smash the Russians with a hundred Leopards.


Let me ask you directly – can the West still change this unfavorable situation for Ukraine, which you have outlined by radically increasing the quantity and quality of military equipment supplies?
No, militarily it is too late. Now Russia can only be strangled politically and economically. Putin's political and economic noose must be tightened. If this is not done, there is no military chance that Ukraine will win this war. It is clear that sanctions are ineffective as Russia rebuilds its army. Where are we going? We bet that all Ukrainians are to die in this war? I have the impression that the West still wants to arm Ukraine using the drip method. This allows Ukrainians to fight, but not win. I repeat – all Ukrainians are to die on the battlefield? Instead of helping, the West discusses. How much time was wasted even discussing Patriots for Ukraine?

Here, Polish government supported the idea of supplying Ukraine with Patriot batteries from the very beginning.
Let everyone take care of themselves, the worst thing that can happen is to make political capital in this war. Ukrainians are dying, and their soldiers do not have what it takes to win this war. The Russians were given chances and time. I do not know what the Ukrainians can do now to break the Russian advantage. From a military point of view, there is no such option.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, hardly anyone believed that it would be able to stop Russia, but it succeeded, also due to the disastrous command of the Russians.
The Russians have already learned from the Ukrainians how to fight. I am not a defeatist, I only regret that time was wasted when Ukraine could have been helped and less discussed. If someone wants to believe in miracles, we believe that Ukraine will win this war militarily. However, in my opinion, with the advantage created by the Russians, even if 500 Russians are killed every day, it is nothing for them.


However, as I understand it, in your opinion, the West should continue to support Ukraine militarily?
Yes, Ukrainians need to be supplied with weapons, but not by drip. This aid should also have a completely different character. We should start training new formations of the Ukrainian army together with NATO – in Poland, Germany, France. To train those Ukrainian citizens who are here – to mobilize, train, appoint, send to the front, because it is getting harder and harder for Ukraine.

Have I understood you correctly – do you think that those Ukrainians who now live in our country should be mobilized and trained in Poland?
And why not? In France in 1939 and 1940, we built an army of 80,000 soldiers out of emigrants and those who fled Polish after the September defeat. And why not build such Ukrainian troops in Poland and send them to the front? It is only a matter of intergovernmental agreements and it can be done, there is nothing to wait for.

As for Ukrainian citizens staying in NATO countries, including Poland, those of them who wanted to fight at the front are already in Ukraine.
And now we will ask them whether they want to be soldiers or not? You have to mobilize, conscript into the army and that's it. Please forgive me for saying this, but it pains me as a soldier that Ukraine is wasting its chance with our participation.

Interviewed by Adam Stankiewicz

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Chancellor

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This is a very expensive loss. An entire EW mobile station got taken out by a Lancer drone. Furthermore the EW unit failed to jam both the Lancet and the Orlan 10 that found it and watching it like a hawk.

Russians don’t use Orlan 10 and Lancet drones together. This looks like Forpost and Lancet like in previous videos
 
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