Its not yet the ideal time for another offensive as the ground is still mud that even causes problems for tracked vehicles. The Russians have been focusing on reinforcement of their lines with poorly trained and equipped conscripts and mercenaries. While unfortunate for the ones sent to the front lines, it has worked to stabilize the lines and grind down Ukrainian forces in a war of attrition. Even the Ukrainians have started to admit this.
The fortunate Russian conscripts have not been immediately sent to the meat grinder and are in Russia or Belarus being trained to function as a more effective fighting force. Russia has been sending a lot of armor and support vehicles to Belarus and to the front. Now what they actually are planning to do in the future is worth at least twenty years so we all wait until that moment unless NATO/Ukraine decides to share with everyone else.
Problem is from miltary tactic point the target is to overstretch the Ukrainan/NATO military.
Means they will move along the full border of Belorus/Russia the units, creating strategic ambiguity about they intent.
and at the same time practice the moving of the troops fast and effeicient.
Most likelly at the same time all unit commander has to make different plans for attack, to make confuse the spies.
and the timing and place of the attack is most likelly randomly determined.
if I am the person in charge of the operation then I would define a daily percentage chance to start the attack, another one for the place of attack, and define a probablity field .
like the chance of attack is 5% per day in January, 8% per day in feb, 3% per day in March, place is 20% Belorus, 40% Russia, 40% doneck/luhansk.
And of course the unit commanders has to behave like the attack happens appart from if the daily attack dice say NO they stay in ready state.
Afterwards on every day roll a dice, and decide the next step based on the dice.
