The Middle East War-Winners, Losers, Results

I would like to hear the opinions of all of our esteemed members as to the results of this war. Were there any "winners"? This is in both a military and geopolitical sense. Also, how will this effect the arms market/development and military doctrine in the future? Can China learn anything from this?

I'll post what I think later, I gotta go.

Ah, very nice topic. Let me begin with the winners of this war. Hezbullah withstanded nearly over a month of intense bombardment by the world's fourth most powerful military by air, land, and sea. It was attacked by Israeli armor, a country with brutal experience in tank warfare and several times Hezbullah was somewhat humiliated by the commando raids. Hezbullah by no doubt lost more men than Israel (probably not the 500 that Israel claims, but definetely more than 120). HOWEVER, Hezbullah, as a guerilla organization, led an asymetrical war with a fearful sense of symetry. They contained most Israeli forces within five miles of the Lebanese border. They completely destroyed Merkava tanks and killed their crews inside with ATGWs and even knocked out one of the most sophisticated corvettes in the world. They managed to rain rockets on a daily basis despite the intense Israeli surveillance. Israeli soldiers and generals described Hezbullah as a well equipped infantry unit with good support, and that they were.

In the 1982 invasion, the Israelis reached Beirut within a day. This clearly wasn't the case as Hezbullah lasted much longer than any Arab army ever did against the Israeli might. Support for Prime Minister Olmert has plummeted to nearly forty percent as opposed to the seventy three percent before the war. The Israelis lost nearly 119 soldiers and nearly 5000 were wounded in combat. Not being able to release the two captured Israeli soldiers, stop Hezbullah rocket attacks, or weaken Hezbullah was a massive blow not only to Israeli morale, but it considerabely strengthned Hezbullah's image around both Lebanon and the Muslim world. This defeat towards the Israelis for not having accomplished any military objective makes Israel look weak, an image the Israelis have always dreaded since it's birth. The Israeli Mossad (probably the finest intelligence agency in the world) and many promintent Israeli generals warned against going into Lebanon, but the government of Israel and the head of the IDF both ignored the warnings and went ahead.

Now, the aftermath. A prisoner exchange will have to include the release of the captured Hezbullah fighters and dead fighters but also the release of all Lebanese prisoners since the '82 war or else Israel won't be able to get its two soldiers back. Hezbullah is now starting to reconstruct all damaged buildings in Lebanon and is cementing it's position around Lebanon. The UN peacekeepers will be deployed, but they don't have the orders to shoot at Hezbullah nor do they have the orders to disarm it (the Lebanese government is not allowing Hezbullah to be disarmed). So, what did Israel gain out of all of this? Nothing. Hezbullah? Everything it wished for. Pride, prestige, giving the IDF a bloody nose, and cementing its position not only in Lebanon but all across the Muslim world. The last victory is now the greatest victory of all for any guerilla force like Hezbullah.

Militaryily speaking, Islreal was able to setback Hezbollah a few years, but not to the extend Islreal planned for. The fact that Hezbollah was able to launch rockets into Isreal everydya during the war is truely suprising for most of the western world.

Politically speaking, Isreal got its ass handed to on a silver plater, courtesy of Hezbollah. There will be be prisoner exchange that Omlert vowed to NOT do. Hezbollah will not be disarms, no matter how many times UN says....it will be funny if all hezbollah fighters are integrated into the 15000 strong lebanese army that is to be stationed in the south.

Who the hell though hezbollah was able to attck the Islreali navy?

crazyinsane105 said:

Ah, very nice topic. Let me begin with the winners of this war. Hezbullah withstanded nearly over a month of intense bombardment by the world's fourth most powerful military by air, land, and sea. It was attacked by Israeli armor, a country with brutal experience in tank warfare and several times Hezbullah was somewhat humiliated by the commando raids. Hezbullah by no doubt lost more men than Israel (probably not the 500 that Israel claims, but definetely more than 120). HOWEVER, Hezbullah, as a guerilla organization, led an asymetrical war with a fearful sense of symetry. They contained most Israeli forces within five miles of the Lebanese border. They completely destroyed Merkava tanks and killed their crews inside with ATGWs and even knocked out one of the most sophisticated corvettes in the world. They managed to rain rockets on a daily basis despite the intense Israeli surveillance. Israeli soldiers and generals described Hezbullah as a well equipped infantry unit with good support, and that they were.

In the 1982 invasion, the Israelis reached Beirut within a day. This clearly wasn't the case as Hezbullah lasted much longer than any Arab army ever did against the Israeli might. Support for Prime Minister Olmert has plummeted to nearly forty percent as opposed to the seventy three percent before the war. The Israelis lost nearly 119 soldiers and nearly 5000 were wounded in combat. Not being able to release the two captured Israeli soldiers, stop Hezbullah rocket attacks, or weaken Hezbullah was a massive blow not only to Israeli morale, but it considerabely strengthned Hezbullah's image around both Lebanon and the Muslim world. This defeat towards the Israelis for not having accomplished any military objective makes Israel look weak, an image the Israelis have always dreaded since it's birth. The Israeli Mossad (probably the finest intelligence agency in the world) and many promintent Israeli generals warned against going into Lebanon, but the government of Israel and the head of the IDF both ignored the warnings and went ahead.

Now, the aftermath. A prisoner exchange will have to include the release of the captured Hezbullah fighters and dead fighters but also the release of all Lebanese prisoners since the '82 war or else Israel won't be able to get its two soldiers back. Hezbullah is now starting to reconstruct all damaged buildings in Lebanon and is cementing it's position around Lebanon. The UN peacekeepers will be deployed, but they don't have the orders to shoot at Hezbullah nor do they have the orders to disarm it (the Lebanese government is not allowing Hezbullah to be disarmed). So, what did Israel gain out of all of this? Nothing. Hezbullah? Everything it wished for. Pride, prestige, giving the IDF a bloody nose, and cementing its position not only in Lebanon but all across the Muslim world. The last victory is now the greatest victory of all for any guerilla force like Hezbullah.

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I agree. Hizbollah performed well, and stood up against Israel. However, I do question: Why didn't the Lebanese army do anything? They are designed to protect the nation, and yet they didn't. It seems that Hizbollah performed more like an army than the Lebanese army itself.

Yes, I agree with both of you. Hezbollah is the winner, temporarily. Israel did not achive its goal, it has probably forced prisoner exchanges with Israel, and it has massively increased its stature among the Lebanese public and the Arab world. However, international attention has been focused on it and I think that it will result in the resolving of the Hezbollah question in Lebanon. In other words, this is quite possibly the first step to Hezbollah's disarmament.

This war has also further discredited the Bush Doctrine of using force to resolve issues in the Middle East. The IDF used all the force it could bring to bear, and could not do much damage to Hezbollah. Now it appears that Hezbollah may be tamed by UN peacekeepers (gasp!) and the Lebanese Army.

Iran and Syria have proved that if Israel of the US pushes them, they can push back and that they have a lot of influence in the Arab world. This was good for Syria especially, as it allowed them to curtail any further military adventureness by their main enemy, Israel. Their other enemy, the US, is tied down in that hell-hole of Iraq. Iran and Syria almost have free hand. However, as I said, this post-conflict diplomacy may lead to Hezbollah's disarmament, which would take a major tool away from Iran and Syria.

Lastly, this has added more proof to a notion that is growing in many people's minds. Essentially, I believe there is a belief worldwide emboldening the enemies of the US, as well as many other countries without first-rate militaries, that guerilla warfare is an equalizer in confrontations with more advanced militaries that the more advanced military has no answer to. This has lessons for China. As China becomes a major power, it will inevitably face similar situations. Howver, it's army is still in he process of being constructed, so it can learn the lessons of the Iraq, Chechnya and Lebanon wars and build counter-insurgency into itself from the beginning. As for the US, I would recommend increasing the Army to its 12 division size that it had during the Cold War, and training one or both of the new divisions as a specific counter-insurgency/irregular/low intensity fighting unit, much like the Army has Airborne or Armoured divisions. To clarify, this division/s would not be an irregular or guerilla force, but rather one designed to counter forces like that.

Edited to add-
Dark Eminence, I too wondered why the Lebanese Army didn't fight. But I was intriged by a video I saw on CNN today. In it Israeli soldiers move into Marajoun in Southern Lebanon, and go to the Lebanese Army complex. They are met by the commander, not a shot is fired. The commander was a brigadier general, and a Christian. He gave the Israelis tea, and talked with the Israeli commanders. One of the Israelis said something to the effect of "We've briefed Bush" and the Lebanese commander replied "Yes, we should brief Bush as well." Odd. VERY odd. Conspiracy perhaps? I'lll check Abovetopsecret.com.

DarkEminence said:

I agree. Hizbollah performed well, and stood up against Israel. However, I do question: Why didn't the Lebanese army do anything? They are designed to protect the nation, and yet they didn't. It seems that Hizbollah performed more like an army than the Lebanese army itself.

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The Lebanese army's bravery is comparable to that of the Iraqi army during the 2003.:rofl: I really don't have a clue as to why they didn't do anything. Hell, about 350 of them surrendered to the Israelis without a fight-and even offered tea to the Israeli soldiers after putting up a white flag outside of their bunker! Maybe the Prime Minister of Lebanon didn't want to activate the army reason being that many more lives could have been lost and plus a civil war could have broken out...But yeah, the CNN video was VERY intriguing. Had something like that happened in the US when the US was under attack, all those soldiers along with the brigadier general would have been charged with treason and executed.

Well form purely military point of wiev, like said already it was a victory to small over big, ironically, David beated the Goliath but this time the roles where chaged.

It wasen't a miracle victorry, knowing the Hizbollahs capability and the overall superioty of areadefence doctrines made me predict this sort of ending. Over 20 tanks destroyed and 116 mens killed from Israel side, wasen't that bigger casualities than US troops had in the actula warphase of the last Iraqi invasion??

So from military point of view, Israel didn't achive anything, and I would expect huge reform inside the IDF after this. Few years from now and I bet there is a new improved model of Merkava in the market...Also i would expect the orders of Kornet ATGM rise as well and generally the orientation towards ATGMs change to more positive route.

But who where the winners, Hizbollah...you may find my quote which i made during the hostilityes in which I said that only thing Hizbollah needs to do to win is survive, and I think it accoplished that rather well.

Was Hezbollah the only winner? No, hatred won also. There is yet another new generation of lebanese that remembers their homes destroyed and families killed. Also the Hezbollah's victory makes them look heroes to these lads eyes and the new recruits are floating to hezbollah...In the otherside of the curtain, The image of Hezbollah haven't improved and the fact that it prooved out to be effective just increases the hystery in Israel and their desire to feel safe which ultimately led to this conflict.

So the loosers...Israel? Well at least IDF failed to achive it's goals, so this could be seen as a defeat to warbigs that thinks the violence is the sole solution to all proplems. But there are other loosers. Lebanon. It's southern infrastructure is ruined, over 1000 people killed and hundreds of thouseds left homeless. The enviroment is ruined, huge ammount of oil has gone pouring t the Mediteranian...But the biggest looser of this incidence is UN and the western community. They showed their real face. They are good to wage wars and give resulutions to support acts of wars but they failed misserable to end a war. USA showed once again how much it really cares about civilian victims and EU showed that it cannot do anything against the USAs will. When hunderds of people are beeing killed, western powers argue over WORDS. Words that would say; "we are sorry if you are beeing killed, but Isrealians have the right to FEEL SAFE"...

...the blood is in our hands becouse we did nothing...

im gonna say the following,

Hezbollah Won-its appeal and support has increased(even beyond the boundaries of Lebanon!) and it is now working on a humanitarian and social level to help rebuild the lives of those lebanese who've suffered throughout the ordeal further strengthening and engraining its support further. ALso, its stature has improved and its reputation as a well organized and surprising 'professional' milita have now been cemented

Israel Lost- with its large/modern american supplied army it was found to be inneffective against a mere 'militia' (which arose and was formed as a direct result of the Israeli occupation of Lebanon as a Resistance force); furthermore, the famous 'Gilaad' and other kidnapped Israeli soldiers, well, there still missing! Also, many Jews and Israelis, opposed the war openly and where more larger in number thus dealing a severe blow to Ehud Olmerts government.

US lost, was made to look like it was supporting a bully which it was unable to control after having supplied and often fast-tracking military hardware during the campaign. Also, it snowballed many of the UN resolutions which would have stopped the carnage way before the death toll began climbing.

Lebanon lost - as the country will now have to rebuild most of its infrastructure and re-attract lost capital that fled abroad during the whole campaing.

International COmmunity Lost- This will be seen as another violent clash in which the world community did nothing while another middle eastern/Muslim albeit mixed country has been attacked with gruesome videos of carnage & destruction broadcasted throughout the world and the general apathy/complacency of world leaders to act in their case. You can probably guess who will benefit from this.

Well this conflict was great example of what happens when politics start tampering in military operations…

Israeli government underestimated Hezbollah; they expected that they can achieve victory using only airpower, then when they realized that this wont work they ordered limited ground operations in southern Lebanon and managed to here what generals were saying (offensive to Litani river) only last day of the conflict… Too much reliance on technology and too little understanding that only effective weapon against guerilla is well supported infantry…
IDF wasn’t permitted to wage serious war from day one and faced severe restriction to the last day of the conflict. Basically thanks to political decisions IDF joust did to little for to long.

On other side we had well equipped and trained Hezbollah guerillas who weren’t bound by any political or ethical restrictions and who managed to exploit IDF poor tactics and lack of political willingness to there one advantage.
They showed great tactical knowledge; they avoided firefights whit IDF soldiers and rather used ATGM’s as primary weapon against Israeli soldiers and equipment… They used terrain characteristics to attack IDF tanks. IDF reports claim that majority of losses was from ATGM attack to the top of the turret, where the tank commander was usually exposed. Tank commander was usually killed in such attacks and crew was injured…

Also Hezbollah showed great understanding of information warfare… Thanks to great propaganda efforts public opinion was on there side during this conflict… Some of examples of this propaganda effort were claims of destroyed IDF ships, tanks, using fake casualty reports (for troops and for civilians), staged photographs (Reuter’s case) etc…

So who has won this war?

Israel? They failed to destroy Hezbollah so they lose… Simple as that…Thanks to government mistakes army newer had chance to win. They inducted heavy loses to Hezbollah but they failed to achieve objectives of this operation…

Lebanon? Hell no… Lebanese government showed that they don’t have any control over Hezbollah, that they cant do one thing to protect country and thanks to that Lebanon is destroyed politically and economically…

Hezbollah? They achieved something that no one in Arab world hasn’t achieved in last 50 years; they survived IDF offensive no matter how limited this offensive was… But while doing so they managed to single-handedly destroy every political, economical and humanitarian progress made in Lebanon in last decade… They showed that they don’t care for Lebanese civilians, Lebanese government, Lebanese economy… They simple showed that the care only for there one interests… And that will backfire eventually no matter what they believe…

UN? They once again showed that they are completely helpless and nonfunctioning organization… If UNIFIL did what they supposed to doe this would newer happen… And now when ceasefire is signed they can’t find interested participants for new mission…

So who won? No one… Hezbollah won’t disarm; new UN force will be ineffective, Lebanese government now has no chance to do anything against Hezbollah, Israelis achieved nothing and we have even more serious situation then the one before… So IMHO this was round one and few months or years from now shit will hit the fan and this little conflict will be replaced whit real bloodshed…

Great Post isthvan. you have hit it right on the head. Olmert did not give the military the powers to defeat its enemy. I have never seen were you had to have stupid cabnit meetings to "slightly" increase military tempo. the politicians Hijacked the Israeli military capability and caused it many problems to included the lives and safety of its service members. WHEN YOU FIGHT A WAR YOU FIGHT IT LIKE ITS YOUR LAST. You fight to win and to kill the enemy....cheers ute