The Kashmir conflict 2025.
- Thread starter ohan_qwe
- Start date
There's a possibility that the Indians will be willing to castrate themselves to get to the cutting edge after this fiasco.
BUT I don't think the offer will be on the table anyways, India has presented itself as unreliable in air - the risk of reputational damage from misuse is too high.
I haven’t seen any accounts of Indian a2a missile debris recovered on the Pakistan side which seems to imply the IAF jets were completely caught off guard and didn’t even get a chance to launch their own Meteors or Astras towards the Pakistan side.
They either didn’t know the Pakistani jets where there or didn’t know PAF were shooting at them until it was too late
India will never get F-35 since its considered a crown jewel by US now. The more China makes advances the more US relies on cope. One of their big copes is that F-35 is the most advanced plane in the world and China cannot match it. So, why would US give it to India which might leak its secrets to Russia and then Russia to China?
India simply not trusted by the west enough to give their most advanced weapons.
Then there is Su-57, which is not considered a good plane by pretty much the whole world. Since India was involved with Su-57 from the beginning, they know pretty much everything about it and they did not like it. I don't think things have changed enough on the Su-57 to change their minds.
So, ultimately, India will just use propaganda and boasting to rely on 4th gen jets for the foreseeble future.
Strengthening capabilities up to J35 doesn't make any sense; what Pakistan needs to do now is improve its economy, as Pakistan is too poor. We can all see that Pakistan's air defense density is very low. The S400 is also equipped by China but has currently been phased out. The gap between HQ9 and HQC is just like the gap between J10 and J10C. Pakistan's air defense density is simply too low.
Of course, that should be the first priority but denial of air is also extremely important. If they gain air superiority then they can also perform SEAD operations against any air defense batteries. The situation this time could have been disastrous if they had obtained air superiority.
We should entertain the very real possibility that they simply could not get a solution to fire.
Let's look at this logically.
To start off with, no air force conducting a strike should ever be caught off guard. It is initiating the contact.
The attacker could be surprised by the extreme range that the retaliation was conducted but that would also mean that its own ability to engage was diminished by the distance. It is a case of "we can't see them so they must not see us."
When the PL-15s hit, they simply had no way of engaging at that range.
The most telling thing is day two after the Rafale hits. There were no IAF A2A launches in retaliation. No attempt to draw in PAF fighters for revenge.
No attempts because they had nothing that can engage before a PL-15E comes screaming into its terminal stage.
China understands the difficult situation between India and Pakistan and has no desire to escalate the situation into a nuclear confrontation.
China wants to impose a soft defeat on India through a limited victory for Pakistan.
But if you have no doubt, I believe that if the conflict escalates further and an all-out war becomes a real option, the escalation of the conflict will necessarily force Beijing to massively increase its arms supplies to Pakistan, including, first and foremost, its much-needed aircraft in Taiwan.
A major war in Pakistan could cause Beijing to delay its activities in Taiwan. China will never let India prevail in a scenario where it has dominance in South Asia.
Should PAF take photos of S-400? Are you actually sane?
Pakistan released plenty of footage of the destruction in India via Indian social media until India's blackout and suspension of internet. So, how exactly are you expecting this footage to appear? India releasing footage of destruction in Pakistan came via Pakistani media, not any Indian effort.
Economy has always been in dire status... on paper.
Video footages don't show a single aircraft hit. Even the base hits are questionable. Your missile can hit an empty field in the base.
Some Indians are still saying that IAF didn't lose any aircraft despite Indian officials accepting the losses.
Modi's government pushed for the acquisition of Rafale in 2019, and again recently in 2025. It was supposed to be the panacea of all of IAF's problems. So, they cannot afford to reveal to the public that IAF suffered such a disastrous defeat because then it questions the justification for the ridiculously expensive acquisition (and consequently, the BJP's decision-making).
I have a hypothesis, albeit with one large assumption that tries to solve this strangeness around IAF mission planning.
They planned a mission without AWACS coverage. This is partially verified by the lack of situational awareness for the pilots. Yesterday's PAF briefing didn't indicate IAF AWACS operating in the area, while they did indicate their own.
Why would they plan a mission without AWACS coverage? Because an AWACS is a high value target and IAF doesn't have many of them.
AWACS are especially vulnerable to long range potshots.
Now here's an apparent contradiction. Why were they willing to expose their fighters into the PL-15 range but not their AWACS?
My guess and the aforementioned large assumption is IAF believed the "AWACS/Tanker killer" propaganda about the PL-15, and thought it wouldn't be effective against maneuverable fighters. They reckoned that if the Rafales, Mirages, Flankers etc were to be engaged PAF J-10s would have to close the distance to use medium range missiles.
This would also explain why IAF fighters were not equipped with Meteors but were equipped with MICAs. They were expecting a fairly close quarter fight and were loaded out accordingly.
I know this is slightly farfetched, but it does explain a few peculiarities - given the limited amount of information we have.
They planned a mission without AWACS coverage. This is partially verified by the lack of situational awareness for the pilots. Yesterday's PAF briefing didn't indicate IAF AWACS operating in the area, while they did indicate their own.
Why would they plan a mission without AWACS coverage? Because an AWACS is a high value target and IAF doesn't have many of them.
AWACS are especially vulnerable to long range potshots.
Now here's an apparent contradiction. Why were they willing to expose their fighters into the PL-15 range but not their AWACS?
My guess and the aforementioned large assumption is IAF believed the "AWACS/Tanker killer" propaganda about the PL-15, and thought it wouldn't be effective against maneuverable fighters. They reckoned that if the Rafales, Mirages, Flankers etc were to be engaged PAF J-10s would have to close the distance to use medium range missiles.
This would also explain why IAF fighters were not equipped with Meteors but were equipped with MICAs. They were expecting a fairly close quarter fight and were loaded out accordingly.
I know this is slightly farfetched, but it does explain a few peculiarities - given the limited amount of information we have.