The Kashmir conflict 2025.

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
Pakistan is playing with fire. It can’t realistically win a full scale war without China’s help.

And China’s famously conservative leadership is not going to do much other than the usual diplomatic call for peace. And yet it will be blamed in the end anyway.

To win a protracted war, China needs to help Pakistan like how U.S. helped Israel.

China never backed off from a war near its border (see past history of 1951 Korean War, 1962 Indian war, and 1979 Vietnam war) as long as it happens near the border, outside of its territory. I am not saying China will invade India on Pakistan's behalf, however, some sort of actual military operation can not be ruled out.

It's naive to always think China will be peaceful. Yes China had been advocating for peace, but China will fight wars if it's near border for its national interests.
 

ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
China should avoid getting directly (i.e. militarily) involved in the current confrontation and escalation between India and Pakistan as best as possible. Diplomatic channel must be kept open with both Islamabad and New Delhi, and Beijing must be steadfast in offering off-ramps for both countries to disengage and come to a ceasefire.

In the meantime, the PLA should offer as much and as best of military intelligence collected from the Chinese side of the border to Pakistan as possible, by flying AEW&C, ELINT and SIGINT aircrafts and drones in the regions per one of my prior posts. Secure military equipment and platform supply routes should be established as well.

Simultaneously, the PLA Western Theater Command (WTC) should go on high alert and be ready do go into action in case things goes out of hand (such as some Jai Hind generals hatching some funny ideas and decided to attack the aforementioned supply lines inside Chinese-held territory).

Another avenue to help Pakistan would be conducting large-scale, cross-service and cross-domain maneuvers and exercises in the WTC region, in order to not just split Indian military's attention, but also making sure that all the PLA troops stationed at WTC are prepared and on standby.

The PLAN's South Sea Fleet should also be on standby and ready to move out and into the Indian Ocean, in case the Jai Hinds hatch any funny ideas about the oil-and-gas sea lanes between West Asia and China. Also, it's time to send out reconaissance ships to loiter outside the coasts of western India and Pakistan too.
It's also important to start hedging against this going nuclear, midcourse BMD in WTC should be surged now as well as terminal BMD near key targets like Beijing. Hopefully they're prudent enough to be doing that.
 

Captainquirk

New Member
Registered Member
China should avoid getting directly (i.e. militarily) involved in the current confrontation and escalation between India and Pakistan as best as possible. Diplomatic channel must be kept open with both Islamabad and New Delhi, and Beijing must be steadfast in offering off-ramps for both countries to disengage and come to a ceasefire.

In the meantime, the PLA should offer as much and as best of military intelligence collected from the Chinese side of the border to Pakistan as possible, by flying AEW&C, ELINT and SIGINT aircrafts and drones in the regions per one of my prior posts. Secure military equipment and platform supply routes should be established as well.

Simultaneously, the PLA Western Theater Command (WTC) should go on high alert and be ready do go into action in case things goes out of hand (such as some Jai Hind generals hatching some funny ideas and decided to attack the aforementioned supply lines inside Chinese-held territory).

Another avenue to help Pakistan would be conducting large-scale, cross-service and cross-domain maneuvers and exercises in the WTC region, in order to not just split Indian military's attention, but also making sure that all the PLA troops stationed at WTC are prepared and on standby.

The PLAN's South Sea Fleet should also be on standby and ready to move out and into the Indian Ocean, in case the Jai Hinds hatch any funny ideas about the oil-and-gas sea lanes between West Asia and China. Also, it's time to send out reconaissance ships to loiter outside the coasts of western India and Pakistan too.
It’s time for China to make a decision. It wants to make nice to India to keep it from being pulled into US lead alliance. It wants to protect Pakistan too.

Hard dance to maintain. But it’s time to make decision. Pakistan can’t win a protracted war against India without China.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
Pakistan is playing with fire. It can’t realistically win a full scale war without China’s help.

And China’s famously conservative leadership is not going to do much other than the usual diplomatic call for peace. And yet it will be blamed in the end anyway.

To win a protracted war, China needs to help Pakistan like how U.S. helped Israel.
China is famously known for sending troops into both Korea and, as we now know, also Vietnam, in between there was that side hustle giving India a beating in 62, and most recently giving India another beating in 2020.

Perhaps its a culture thing, but a lot of people always mistake China's civility for pacifism.

China is already pretty explicit in its support of Pakistan and has more than enough to back stop any Indian misbehavior, but if India really want to push their luck... they might find Pakistan suddenly in posession of a lot of drones that might or might not be controlled by Pakistan
 

ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
Just sabre rattling, unless there's some sort of clown show of an accidental/unauthorized nuclear employment by one side (not impossible, see 2022) the next escalatory step to watch for would be signs of a large scale Indian ground invasion followed by Pakistani use of their short range TNWs.

This is an old but good primer:
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