The Civil War in Libya

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Red___Sword

Junior Member
Miragedriver said:
Unfortunately I believe that you are correct in your assessment. Libya’s political and civil institutions are more closely related to Afghanistan and Somalia. Libya’s close proximity to Europe may not be enough from keeping the country from spinning out of control.
I would prefer to see an influence from the European nations (which have petroleum on their minds, and repayment for their air support) than have groups like Hezbola, Hamas, etc. take over the nation and begin another dictatorship. It would be sad for the people of Libya to go from the frying pan and into the fire.
There is also a large amount of weapons that are being “liberated” from military bases. I wonder where these explosives and small arms will end up.
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I believe in eastern wisdom that "A man need to suffer hardship, in order to getting mature". So dose a country, and civilization as well.

By "hardship", I personaly means the "fair voting right for everyone" stuff, in the hands of this now dusty geographical concept named Libiya, to work your way to your delivery, to the promise land. - through "try and fail" method.

Every "successful" country go through this hardship despite the ideology, many others with "fair voting rights" in their hands (only), did not success.

COLD HARD TRUTH.
 
MwRYum

MwRYum

Major
Places like Somalia were left to rot by the international community was because there's nothing valuable underneath, ie. nothing to "recover" from such an investment.

But not Libya.

So long as oil still a valuable commodity, and Libya's stash still worthy of mining, the West will come back in one form or another, at least to make things stable enough to resume oil production and export.
 
S

Scratch

Captain
With the costal regions, were most of the fighting took place, and especially Tripoli now in the focus, how is the situation elsewhere in the country?
I've read rebels are still negotioating with Gaddafi friendly tribes around Sirt, but that the situation is difficult and maybe even deteriorating, since they local tribes don't want to hand power to the NTC.
Also, many parts in central Libya, throughout the desert, are still under Gaddafi forces control I hear, rebels just did not go there to fight.
While controlling the costal region is probably the most important part, since that is were the economical / political center of gravity is, the vast inlands of Libya can still be a staging area for a future insurgency if not properly controlled.
 
R

Red___Sword

Junior Member
MwRYum said:
Places like Somalia were left to rot by the international community was because there's nothing valuable underneath, ie. nothing to "recover" from such an investment.

But not Libya.

So long as oil still a valuable commodity, and Libya's stash still worthy of mining, the West will come back in one form or another, at least to make things stable enough to resume oil production and export.
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The place called "Libya" was an geographical concept for the past millenary, being exploit by all kinds of "Power of the day", while Libya was not necessary to be a sovereignty nation for the most of the millenary.

The taken for granted (which I agree) "international intervene" dose not necessarly "we are here to help", and they are here to help.

But you are right about the oil production - they just let the rest part of this (once again) geographical concept to rot.
 
Miragedriver

Miragedriver

Brigadier
The great unknown, however, is what happens to Libya after Quaddafi falls. Granted there is oil under the surface and that will encurage the western nations to invest and improve Libya for their own advantage. The NATO mission was prompted by the need to prevent Quaddafi from destroying Benghazi , where resistance to his rule was centered, and to prevent genocide of its inhabitants. NATO succeeded in achieving this goal. However, compared to the task of creating a stable democracy out of the wreckage of Quaddafi’s tyranny, preventing such an atrocity (even the subsequent campaign to topple the dictator) were relatively straightforward tasks. In particular, the rival nature of the rebel coalition means that it is impossible to tell whether it will usher in representative republic, fall apart into warring splinter groups, or engage in violent reprisals against those loyal to the former regime.
The question is will Libya survive as a nation, or be split up into an oil rich region with a stable governemnt and infatructure and another Libya in poverty, forgotten and a breeding ground of future malcontents?
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P

Pointblank

Senior Member
This will be very damaging for the Chinese if these memos are true about secret arms sale meetings between senior Chinese officials and Gadhafi officials:

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China offered huge stockpiles of weapons to Colonel Moammar Gadhafi during the final months of his regime, according to papers that describe secret talks about shipments via Algeria and South Africa.

Documents obtained by The Globe and Mail show that state-controlled Chinese arms manufacturers were prepared to sell weapons and ammunition worth at least $200-million to the embattled Col. Gadhafi in late July, a violation of United Nations sanctions.
The documents suggest that Beijing and other governments may have played a double game in the Libyan war, claiming neutrality but covertly helping the dictator. The papers do not confirm whether any military assistance was delivered, but senior leaders of the new transitional government in Tripoli say the documents reinforce their suspicions about the recent actions of China, Algeria and South Africa. Those countries may now suffer a disadvantage as Libya’s new rulers divide the spoils from their vast energy resources, and select foreign firms for the country’s reconstruction.
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