The Civil War in Libya

R

Red___Sword

Junior Member
MwRYum said:
Lastly, China ditched Qaddafi back then had something to do with Qaddafi's foreign policy towards China.
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PRC ditched Qaddafi not only for "his foreign policy towards China" (namely, got some sentimental stuff with ROC), but also because the past decade the Colonel is explicitly making efforts to be "independent" from any kind of international power house influnce - not saying this a bad thing, but it surely making China interest-less when a civil war come to get him and China have so much less at stack, than european countries.

Wlhat's more worrisome will unfold in chapter 2 - the rebels still a loose bunch, it's still to be seen if they could hold it all together after the fall of Qaddafi, conduct proper election, set up a proper gov't body, proper trials for the members of Qaddafi regime...the list can go on.
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I totally agree with that. Ironically we are all bystanders, while they themselves are the one to try the water - "and no refund will be entertained".
 
Baibar of Jalat

Baibar of Jalat

Junior Member
China had no beef with Libya that was bad enough to support bombing them. China has bigger tensions with its neighbours, but is at peace with them. They did not block UN resolution on Libya was because the Gulf Arabs offered them more. Libya did not have the influence the GCC has on China. Simple as that.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
China never supported the bombing of Libya, they just didn't feel strongly enough against it to veto the UN resolution.

The cynical part of me thinks that is mostly because they didn't want to be blamed for a massive pile of slaughtered civilians as Qaddaffi did look like he was frothing at the mouth and would have done something truly horrific if left to his own devices.
 
Miragedriver

Miragedriver

Brigadier
It will be interesting to see if after Qaddafi's fall if there will be some type of transitional government indicated by the Libyans with assistance from other nations (process that will take several years), or will we see another hijacked revolution as there was in Iran in the late 1970’s.
What’s interesting to consider is that unlike Iran, Cuba ……….. Libya is composed of different tribes, each with it’s own interest. Will these tribes work together to form some type of republic, or will these rivalries emerge as an obstacle to unification and stability?
Any thoughts on how the Libyan people (or some tribal committee) will keep the civil society together after the euphoria of defeating Qaddafi is over. What worries me is that unlike Egypt, the judicial and civil institutions may not be strong enough to keep things together.
 
R

Red___Sword

Junior Member
Miragedriver said:
It will be interesting to see if after Qaddafi's fall if there will be some type of transitional government indicated by the Libyans with assistance from other nations (process that will take several years), or will we see another hijacked revolution as there was in Iran in the late 1970’s.
What’s interesting to consider is that unlike Iran, Cuba ……….. Libya is composed of different tribes, each with it’s own interest. Will these tribes work together to form some type of republic, or will these rivalries emerge as an obstacle to unification and stability?
Any thoughts on how the Libyan people (or some tribal committee) will keep the civil society together after the euphoria of defeating Qaddafi is over. What worries me is that unlike Egypt, the judicial and civil institutions may not be strong enough to keep things together.
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Or it could be even worse, like Somalia.

How far the kind-hearted "international community" could offer (yes, "how far"), we shall see.
 
P

PanAsian

Major
Miragedriver said:
Any thoughts on how the Libyan people (or some tribal committee) will keep the civil society together after the euphoria of defeating Qaddafi is over. What worries me is that unlike Egypt, the judicial and civil institutions may not be strong enough to keep things together.
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Libya's political composition might be more like Afghanistan or Somalia, but it's got oil and is situated too close for Europeans and Arabs alike to allow it to spin out of control.

Some sort of heavy influencing or covert hijacking of the revolution by outside powers appears inevitable to me. I'm sure Britain and France did the math beforehand, simply getting rid of Qaddaffi isn't going to make up for their military expenditures.
 
Baibar of Jalat

Baibar of Jalat

Junior Member
PanAsian said:
Libya's political composition might be more like Afghanistan or Somalia, but it's got oil and is situated too close for Europeans and Arabs alike to allow it to spin out of control.

Some sort of heavy influencing or covert hijacking of the revolution by outside powers appears inevitable to me. I'm sure Britain and France did the math beforehand, simply getting rid of Qaddaffi isn't going to make up for their military expenditures.
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Look at the oil map. Oils in the East, in the rebel areas. In Iraq oil was in southern areas, who supported Saddams ouster. Both oil regions have complained about neglect. In theory oil revenue will have to more widely distributed. Thats why Gaddafi has survived so long dispite NATO taking sides during civil war. In summary, alot of regions gonna lose out.
 

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P

PanAsian

Major
Baibar of Jalat said:
Look at the oil map. Oils in the East, in the rebel areas. In Iraq oil was in southern areas, who supported Saddams ouster. Both oil regions have complained about neglect. In theory oil revenue will have to more widely distributed. Thats why Gaddafi has survived so long dispite NATO taking sides during civil war. In summary, alot of regions gonna lose out.
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I just want to make sure I understand what you mean: Gaddafi survived so long because of his historic hoarding of the oil wealth, right?

When you say a lot of regions are going to lose out, what do you mean?
 
Baibar of Jalat

Baibar of Jalat

Junior Member
PanAsian said:
I just want to make sure I understand what you mean: Gaddafi survived so long because of his historic hoarding of the oil wealth, right?

When you say a lot of regions are going to lose out, what do you mean?
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Libya in terms of Human development Index is pretty high, cant be classed as third world nation. Just thought I highlight that.

The oil wealth was mainly concentrated around Tripoli and loyalist areas. The East of country did not get its fair share. However Misrata was considered very prosperous by Libyan standards, but they revolted. So a mix of unfair wealth distribution/ political discontent was cause of revolt.

The oil wealth from now on is gonna be spent on areas that supported rebels and less amounts to loyalist areas. It is pretty standard for victors to take the wealth. Gaddafi survived six months despite unrestricted airsrikes and Nato arming rebels, he must have some support from western tribes. Now they gonna lose power and privilages.
 
Miragedriver

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Red___Sword said:
Or it could be even worse, like Somalia.
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Unfortunately I believe that you are correct in your assessment. Libya’s political and civil institutions are more closely related to Afghanistan and Somalia. Libya’s close proximity to Europe may not be enough from keeping the country from spinning out of control.
I would prefer to see an influence from the European nations (which have petroleum on their minds, and repayment for their air support) than have groups like Hezbola, Hamas, etc. take over the nation and begin another dictatorship. It would be sad for the people of Libya to go from the frying pan and into the fire.
There is also a large amount of weapons that are being “liberated” from military bases. I wonder where these explosives and small arms will end up.
 
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