Here's a fine overview of the situation in the Western half of the country
The Civil War in Libya
- Thread starter solarz
- Start date
phase one ,ouster of khaddafy,but phase-2 islamist/al queda vs. who ever seize power in tripoli.
what happening in libya, may be replay of iraq,ouster of saddam created political vaccum,which quickly lead to secterian war,but instead of shia vs. sunni, you going to al queda/islamist vs. pragmaist/nationalist/secular ,or tribal warfare.
what happening in libya, may be replay of iraq,ouster of saddam created political vaccum,which quickly lead to secterian war,but instead of shia vs. sunni, you going to al queda/islamist vs. pragmaist/nationalist/secular ,or tribal warfare.
The rebels have captured Zawiya
Apparently Al Jazeera Arabic broadcasted a report from the central square and it was firmly in rebel control. Most recent reports indicate a counterattack is underway from the direction of Tripoli. If the rebels can hold the city, they will have cut Qaddafi's supply line to the Tunisian border, from which he obtains smuggled fuel, and captured the last functioning fuel refinery under Qadaffi's control. It seems that the rebel victory at Bir Ghanem threw the loyalist forces on the Western front into disarray, as the rebel advances after that towards the coast have been relatively quick, with lots of advance-to-contact fights, indicating that the government forces have little in the way of firmed-up defenses.
There is also a major rebel attack underway against Gheryan, at the northern end of the Nafusa Mtns. It's extremely difficult to say what exactly is going on there; I've read reports that the city has almost entirely fallen, but I can't confirm that at all. It would make more sense the loyalists moved a lot of troops away from Gheryan to attempt to halt the rebel push on Zawiya, which is a strong possibility. The attack on Gheryan may just be a supporting feint for the main thrust to Zawiya. If the rebels can take Gheryan though, they will cut the last viable route from the south of the country, one of Qadaffi's main support bases, to Tripoli. That means it would be a lot harder, if not impossible, for Qadaffi to bring in new mercenaries, fuel and ammo from Central Africa.
Also, yesterday, a rebel offensive on the Misrata front took the village of Tawergha which anchored the Eastern flank of the loyalist ring around Misrata and served as the last spot from which loyalist Grads could hit the city. Rebel casualties were light (4 KIA), although one of them was a commander. There were reports that 150 Qadaffi soldiers surrendered but I can't confirm that at all, although I did see AJE journalists reporting that the rebels had filled up shipping containers with prisoners. This give the Misrata rebels the option of striking in multiple directions; to the south, towards Sirte, to cut the final route between Tripoli and outlying cities that support Qaddafi, or to the West, towards Bani Walid, to link up with the Nafusa rebels and truly close a ring around Tripoli. Here's video of that battle, and the aftermath:
If the rebel's can hold these recent gains, and if they have indeed taken Gheryan, this war just got a whole lot closer to ending. The media's "stalemate" line is sounding very hollow.
Here's a very interesting video and article from the excellent NYT journalist and former Marine CJ Chivers, offering some good analysis of a firefight that killed a rebel in Misrata in April: There's a whole series of "Vantage Point" videos on the At War blog on NYT, mostly from Afghanistan. If you want to get the feel of ground combat in the 21st century, watch them.
EDIT: I can confirm from first hand reports that Gheryan has been taken and is almost totally clear of Qadaffi forces aside from some snipers. Most of them withdrew before the city was attacked by several hundred rebels. Both Zawiya and Gheryan are experiencing heavy government counterattacks, so the situation is fluid and could change.
Apparently Al Jazeera Arabic broadcasted a report from the central square and it was firmly in rebel control. Most recent reports indicate a counterattack is underway from the direction of Tripoli. If the rebels can hold the city, they will have cut Qaddafi's supply line to the Tunisian border, from which he obtains smuggled fuel, and captured the last functioning fuel refinery under Qadaffi's control. It seems that the rebel victory at Bir Ghanem threw the loyalist forces on the Western front into disarray, as the rebel advances after that towards the coast have been relatively quick, with lots of advance-to-contact fights, indicating that the government forces have little in the way of firmed-up defenses.
There is also a major rebel attack underway against Gheryan, at the northern end of the Nafusa Mtns. It's extremely difficult to say what exactly is going on there; I've read reports that the city has almost entirely fallen, but I can't confirm that at all. It would make more sense the loyalists moved a lot of troops away from Gheryan to attempt to halt the rebel push on Zawiya, which is a strong possibility. The attack on Gheryan may just be a supporting feint for the main thrust to Zawiya. If the rebels can take Gheryan though, they will cut the last viable route from the south of the country, one of Qadaffi's main support bases, to Tripoli. That means it would be a lot harder, if not impossible, for Qadaffi to bring in new mercenaries, fuel and ammo from Central Africa.
Also, yesterday, a rebel offensive on the Misrata front took the village of Tawergha which anchored the Eastern flank of the loyalist ring around Misrata and served as the last spot from which loyalist Grads could hit the city. Rebel casualties were light (4 KIA), although one of them was a commander. There were reports that 150 Qadaffi soldiers surrendered but I can't confirm that at all, although I did see AJE journalists reporting that the rebels had filled up shipping containers with prisoners. This give the Misrata rebels the option of striking in multiple directions; to the south, towards Sirte, to cut the final route between Tripoli and outlying cities that support Qaddafi, or to the West, towards Bani Walid, to link up with the Nafusa rebels and truly close a ring around Tripoli. Here's video of that battle, and the aftermath:
If the rebel's can hold these recent gains, and if they have indeed taken Gheryan, this war just got a whole lot closer to ending. The media's "stalemate" line is sounding very hollow.
Here's a very interesting video and article from the excellent NYT journalist and former Marine CJ Chivers, offering some good analysis of a firefight that killed a rebel in Misrata in April: There's a whole series of "Vantage Point" videos on the At War blog on NYT, mostly from Afghanistan. If you want to get the feel of ground combat in the 21st century, watch them.
EDIT: I can confirm from first hand reports that Gheryan has been taken and is almost totally clear of Qadaffi forces aside from some snipers. Most of them withdrew before the city was attacked by several hundred rebels. Both Zawiya and Gheryan are experiencing heavy government counterattacks, so the situation is fluid and could change.
The rebels are pretty much closing in on Tripoli from all sides, and there have already been skirmishes in some suburbs of the capital. If rebels are rising up from within the city it could all go fairly quick. But then again, all the Gaddafi forces that were pushed back during the recent weeks of rebel advance are now concentrated in Tripoli. I wonder if they'd put up a cruel fight to the end for fear of reprisals, or simply try to vanish into the population. In any case Tripoli is now pretty much severed from outside supply.
I've seen reporting of Gaddafi being close to the algerian border, in a ready to jump position.
I wonder, if Tripoli falls, how fast, if at all, will the rest of Gaddafi ground between Brega and Misrata fall to the rebels. Especially the clans in and around Sirt never were with the rebels anyway. They might want to keep some kind of autonomy.
I've seen reporting of Gaddafi being close to the algerian border, in a ready to jump position.
I wonder, if Tripoli falls, how fast, if at all, will the rest of Gaddafi ground between Brega and Misrata fall to the rebels. Especially the clans in and around Sirt never were with the rebels anyway. They might want to keep some kind of autonomy.
Don't believe anything from the "Free Press" from NATO Nations and Al Jazeera. It's all BS.
[video=youtube;4tghoRiZ3ek]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=4tghoRiZ3ek[/video]
[video=youtube;8IOj-MHE-v4]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IOj-MHE-v4&feature=player_embedded[/video]
[video=youtube;4tghoRiZ3ek]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=4tghoRiZ3ek[/video]
[video=youtube;8IOj-MHE-v4]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IOj-MHE-v4&feature=player_embedded[/video]
This war is over. I've been getting firsthand info from Tripoli/rebel commanders throughout, so here's my summary of events based on that and verified media reports. I'm not trying to BS you, I'm only giving you information that I can personally say that I can verify as true. You can choose to believe me, or you can choose to believe, uhh, ahem, Russia Today. I think when we look back after events are objectively clear, that my account is more accurate and the above posted videos are utter nonsense.
About 30-40 hours ago, rebel groups throughout Tripoli started attacking the security forces and trying to seize important buildings after the prearranged "Go" signal at the end of prayers. I've subsequently learned about a lot of the planning behind the operation; the rebels were able to smuggle thousands of weapons into the city. The rising went well at first (quickly capturing the international airport, most of the military airport, freeing thousands of prisoners), and most of the security forces melted away when challenged, a lot of them were drunk when captured. But about 20 hours after the start, Qadaffi's last counterattack was going hard as his diehard loyal units with heavy weapons started attacking rebel-held neighborhoods, and the Tripoli rebels were low on ammo, with hundreds of rebel supporters and civilians killed (its hard to tell who is what exactly; the rebels had lots of unarmed sympathizers doing support tasks like building roadblocks, etc. or generally going out into the street to chant and wave flags and, you know, uselessly get in the way of bullets). With NATO support though, the Qadaffi forces were not able to make meaningful gains, just kill people. By this time, the rebels outside the city, lead by units from Kikla and Gheryan, entered the city first in a trickle then in a wave. Also, a rebel "special forces" unit of about 200 men, from Benghazi, trained by the Qataris, landed on the coast and moved into the city center. The heaviest fighting of the whole thing took place in Tajoura neighborhood, as remnants of the Khamis Brigade with about 15 tanks tried to flee al Khums and enter Tripoli to put down the rebellion. Apparently NATO destroyed the armord column. There was also heavy fighting around Tripoli Zoo, where lots of Qadaffi men were stationed (a group of armed civilians unwisely attacked, suffered a lot of losses), and in the Hay al Andalus neighborhood, with sharp fighting around an unfinished Sheraton Hotel complex on the coast.
The fighting is almost all over now though. Once rebels started streaming into the city from Zawiya, and from the south, resistance totally crumbled. On the way in, they captured the HQ of the Khamis Brigade, after a short fight. The homes of the Qadaffi family have been captured. There's been lots of live images of the rebels celebrating in Green Square in the center of the city. Apparently they haven't yet entered into the Rixos Hotel with the journalists.
The NTC is claiming that they captured Saif and Saadi Qadaffi, and that has been confirmed by the UK Envoy to Benghazi, so I'd say it's true. The Libyan State TV building is in rebel control but somehow the channel is still broadcasting. Qaddafi's still broadcasting speeches, saying that a million people will march on Tripoli to free it, etc. etc.
About 30-40 hours ago, rebel groups throughout Tripoli started attacking the security forces and trying to seize important buildings after the prearranged "Go" signal at the end of prayers. I've subsequently learned about a lot of the planning behind the operation; the rebels were able to smuggle thousands of weapons into the city. The rising went well at first (quickly capturing the international airport, most of the military airport, freeing thousands of prisoners), and most of the security forces melted away when challenged, a lot of them were drunk when captured. But about 20 hours after the start, Qadaffi's last counterattack was going hard as his diehard loyal units with heavy weapons started attacking rebel-held neighborhoods, and the Tripoli rebels were low on ammo, with hundreds of rebel supporters and civilians killed (its hard to tell who is what exactly; the rebels had lots of unarmed sympathizers doing support tasks like building roadblocks, etc. or generally going out into the street to chant and wave flags and, you know, uselessly get in the way of bullets). With NATO support though, the Qadaffi forces were not able to make meaningful gains, just kill people. By this time, the rebels outside the city, lead by units from Kikla and Gheryan, entered the city first in a trickle then in a wave. Also, a rebel "special forces" unit of about 200 men, from Benghazi, trained by the Qataris, landed on the coast and moved into the city center. The heaviest fighting of the whole thing took place in Tajoura neighborhood, as remnants of the Khamis Brigade with about 15 tanks tried to flee al Khums and enter Tripoli to put down the rebellion. Apparently NATO destroyed the armord column. There was also heavy fighting around Tripoli Zoo, where lots of Qadaffi men were stationed (a group of armed civilians unwisely attacked, suffered a lot of losses), and in the Hay al Andalus neighborhood, with sharp fighting around an unfinished Sheraton Hotel complex on the coast.
The fighting is almost all over now though. Once rebels started streaming into the city from Zawiya, and from the south, resistance totally crumbled. On the way in, they captured the HQ of the Khamis Brigade, after a short fight. The homes of the Qadaffi family have been captured. There's been lots of live images of the rebels celebrating in Green Square in the center of the city. Apparently they haven't yet entered into the Rixos Hotel with the journalists.
The NTC is claiming that they captured Saif and Saadi Qadaffi, and that has been confirmed by the UK Envoy to Benghazi, so I'd say it's true. The Libyan State TV building is in rebel control but somehow the channel is still broadcasting. Qaddafi's still broadcasting speeches, saying that a million people will march on Tripoli to free it, etc. etc.
Semi-Lobster
Junior Member
It's done, several of Gaddafi's sons have been captured, and Gaddafi seems to have fled. It looks like Gaddafi's 'support' in Tripoli melted away in a matter of hours a lot faster than I thought it would