The Civil War in Libya

asif iqbal

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
the thing is the rebels like to look good and are big on style wearing bullet chains and showing off to the cameras and carrying more than 1 machine guns etc but infact they are doing very little

there was this one rebel who fired a RPG infront of the camera the guy standing next to him got so excited he fired his entire magazine from his AK-47 in the air in celebration? WTF!!! theres no incentive to conserve ammuniation then they complain they are low on supply???

they drive up the road get bombed and drive back down again, they been doing this for last 6 weeks and so many of them have been killed for no reason, theres no planning or any basic common sense in the ranks of the rebels to out-flank or our smart Gaddafis forces

rebels seriously need some outside help some special forces or something or this circus can go for the next 10 years
 
Finn McCool

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
asif iqbal said:
the thing is the rebels like to look good and are big on style wearing bullet chains and showing off to the cameras and carrying more than 1 machine guns etc but infact they are doing very little
...
they drive up the road get bombed and drive back down again, they been doing this for last 6 weeks and so many of them have been killed for no reason, theres no planning or any basic common sense in the ranks of the rebels to out-flank or our smart Gaddafis forces

rebels seriously need some outside help some special forces or something or this circus can go for the next 10 years
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Yeah the rebels are still amateurish. But I disagree with your contention that this could go on for "the next 10 years".

Here's something I posted on another website.
Qaddafi gets ever weaker. He can't replace his stuff. Everyday he loses tanks and AFVs and Grads and arty to air strikes, everyday more of his command/control and ammo bunkers are blown up by air strikes. Everyday he spends lots and lots of money keeping his army running. Everyday the gas supplies in Tripoli go down (there's a huge gas shortage there look it up). He's not getting any stronger. Look at the fights in Misrata and Zintan and the defeat of his forces when they tried to follow up their victories in Brega and Ras Lanuf by attacking Ajdabiya. He cannot score a knock out blow.

The rebels certainly can't score a knock out blow either. They haven't demonstrated any capacity for serious offensive action. But they're steadily getting stronger. They're capturing/receiving more weapons. In Misrata and the Nafusa Mountains, local rebel offensives have driven Qaddafi's forces back. The training, organization and air strike guidance that the foreign advisers bring will have an effect. They're getting stronger, while Qaddafi is getting weaker.
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I think this fight will be over before you think it will. It really depends on whether they're going to have to dig Qaddafi out of Tripoli by force, or whether defeats on the battlefield will cause Qaddafi to realize the game is up sooner or later and leave. Or if someone else will make that realization and get rid of him from within. Although the back-and-forth will go on for a while (See:
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) I just think that time is working against Qaddafi
 
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MwRYum

MwRYum

Major
Qaddafi is more of a frontman for the western tribes, if to be really rid of him then the eastern tribes (the rebels) must either totally crush the western tribes or both sides comes to a term of some sort, agreed on new ways to "divide the cake" if you know what I mean.

Meanwhile, the rebels still behaved with little to no discipline. and their lack of training shows all. If they want to avoid to get bombed by NATO again, first they need to stop the bad habit of spraying bullets in air for celebration, next they need more than just NATO advisors - they need FACs attached with the rebel troops on the field to guide in air strikes and ordinances.
 
SampanViking

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
There is so little hard news about Libya that any assessments are going to be seriously flawed.

One thing can be taken as read though, there is a lot more going on in Misrata than meets the eye. I suspect that NATO SF are on the ground and that any modern kit displayed by the rebels is as likely to have been supplied as it is to have been captured from Government Forces.

Also Gadaffi has a lot of International Support in Africa and appears able to recruit and purchase easily from his Southern Neighbours.

If you then factor in the complaints coming from Russia and other International Heavyweights, the prospect of a long slow proxy confrontation is highly likely.
 
Finn McCool

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
SampanViking said:
There is so little hard news about Libya that any assessments are going to be seriously flawed.
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I don't think that's true. I've been following the Tweets of journalists who are on the ground there. Even if their articles aren't on the front page anymore, they're still on the front lines. CJ Chivers is quite good. I also follow some of the Libyan pro-rebel Tweeters. They give you a lot of stuff that I wouldn't otherwise get because it's in Arabic. Also I do a lot of Youtube searches for new combat footage from the various fronts. And I follow the daily AJE live blog on Libya. Basically I try to get lots of data points so that I can develop an aggregate picture of what's going on. So I think there is news, you just have to go out and find.

However there is not news coming out of the Ajdabiya front. No one is talking about what's going on in the east. What's your take on that Sampan?
 
Semi-Lobster

Semi-Lobster

Junior Member
MwRYum said:
Qaddafi is more of a frontman for the western tribes, if to be really rid of him then the eastern tribes (the rebels) must either totally crush the western tribes or both sides comes to a term of some sort, agreed on new ways to "divide the cake" if you know what I mean.
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I don't think that's the case at all. There are rebels in the Nafous mountains and Misrata. And until the rebellion was crushed in the area, also in Az-Zawiya and Zuwara and even in Tripoli itself. From my perspective it is more of a social/class division, those who have personally benefited from Gaddafi rule realize that without Gaddafi that they would lose everything and be held responsible for things like embezzlement, corruption etc. etc. and therefore are fighting tooth and nail. There are many tribes in Libya that are divided between rebel and government supporters.
 
TerraN_EmpirE

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
asif iqbal said:
t

there was this one rebel who fired a RPG infront of the camera the guy standing next to him got so excited he fired his entire magazine from his AK-47 in the air in celebration? WTF!!! theres no incentive to conserve ammuniation then they complain they are low on supply???
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Common Problem with Such Groups, So called "Joy bullets" are especially troubling be cause as Newton put it "What comes up must inevitably come down" and often is the case on noncombatants. There is no one True Command in such groups but loose alliances of small parties fighting for there own goals. Often After the united fight against a common foe the nation then continues too fight as these groups take revenge on there former oppressors and each other. A lot of work too come.
 
K

KingLouis

Junior Member
I wonder how unite the Libyan opposition is. I think even after they take down Qaddaffi the country might not be able to be united under one government. Since the oil is mostly in the rebel held territory east they might further divide them self.
 
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