The Civil War in Libya

However there is not news coming out of the Ajdabiya front. No one is talking about what's going on in the east. What's your take on that Sampan?

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In the absence of hard information (and I am afraid that I cannot count Twitter feeds as anything more than Propaganda) I am in no position to have any kind of "take" whatsoever. I can offer a simple guess, which is that neither side is able to advance and successfully take the fight to the other - hence the stalemate.

I can further guess, that NATO instructors are trying to arm and train rebel elements to be more effective, while Gadaffi is playing a waiting game in the hope that as rebel euphoria subsides, so will any sense of cohesion. In that sense it is a war of attrition of each sides nerve and morale.

I've been waiting quite anxiously for news from the Eastern front in Libya (somewhere between Ajdabiya and Brega). Neither side has been undertaking offensive operations there. There are reports from various sources that government forces holding Brega are deserting because they lack supplies (it would be hard to get supplies down that long exposed 2 lane desert highway from Sirte and Tripoli). But I can't confirm any of that. There's almost no hard news coming out of the East. So the question I ask myself is what are the rebels up to? It seems Qaddafi is aiming most of his strength at the rebels in the West, in Misrata and the Nafusa Mountains. He's not making much progress in either place; indeed government forces are being pushed back in Misrata. Qaddafi's realized attacks across the open desert in the east, towards Ajdabiya, are too exposed to air power and will fail. So I don't think the government is planning to go on the offensive in the East at all.

So what are the rebels in Benghazi, Ajdabiya and Tobruk up to? I'd like to think that they're getting organized and putting more men through proper training and into units with a command structure. I'd like to think that they're putting heavy weapons under the control of field commanders and making arrangements to concentrate firepower. I'd like to think that the presence of European advisors is making a difference. But I feel like this is far too optimistic. I've seen only superficial signs that the rebels in the East are improving to be able to mount a serious offensive. So it might be a while before they're ready to do the one thing that could end this war on the battlefield: smash through Qaddafi's forces on the coast road and move towards Sirte and Misrata. Although they might try soon; NATO has been hitting Qaddafi targets in Brega in the last day or two.

Also, might it be possible for the TNC in Benghazi to hire some a Western PMC or something to come in and either A) act as trainers/officers or B) serve as the elite core of the rebel army? Both might be a quicker way to get ready for the inevitable westward push that they're going to have to do if they want to win militarily.

Finn McCool said:

So what are the rebels in Benghazi, Ajdabiya and Tobruk up to? I'd like to think that they're getting organized and putting more men through proper training and into units with a command structure. I'd like to think that they're putting heavy weapons under the control of field commanders and making arrangements to concentrate firepower. I'd like to think that the presence of European advisors is making a difference. But I feel like this is far too optimistic. I've seen only superficial signs that the rebels in the East are improving to be able to mount a serious offensive. So it might be a while before they're ready to do the one thing that could end this war on the battlefield: smash through Qaddafi's forces on the coast road and move towards Sirte and Misrata. Although they might try soon; NATO has been hitting Qaddafi targets in Brega in the last day or two.

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If they want to make any progress they bloody hell better do that, put their men through proper regimen of basic military training, organize into proper and effective fighting forces with active NATO air support.

But the usual rule is that it takes 3 months to whip a civilian into a basic infantryman, if they managed to keep things at a stalemate for the coming 3 months or so the rebels may have themselves a proper ground forces after that...or we'd see soon enough if they can get rid of the bad habits - zero ammo and trigger discipline, too easy to falter at incoming fire, etc.

Well, every now and then there was the talk about a private security firm engaging the that conflict.
Now that there is some kind of a government in the east AND that is gets money (that will come from frozen Gadaffi wealth) the TNC is now probably able to hire a contractor by itself, with the silent blessing of NATO members, to train it's fighters. But I don't think they'd go with them on the offensive.

Scratch said:

Well, every now and then there was the talk about a private security firm engaging the that conflict.
Now that there is some kind of a government in the east AND that is gets money (that will come from frozen Gadaffi wealth) the TNC is now probably able to hire a contractor by itself, with the silent blessing of NATO members, to train it's fighters. But I don't think they'd go with them on the offensive.

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Gone were the days when PMC grown so big that they can afford their own attack helicopters, now mostly conduct VIP protections or training services for government forces (police and military). Can't imagine how much they'd demand for danger pay / action bonus or whatever for missions at the front...

MwRYum said:

Gone were the days when PMC grown so big that they can afford their own attack helicopters, now mostly conduct VIP protections or training services for government forces (police and military). Can't imagine how much they'd demand for danger pay / action bonus or whatever for missions at the front...

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Indeed, the glory days of Mike Hoare, Executive Outcomes and all the rest turning the tide of African civil wars are gone nowadays.

The rebels in Misrata seem to be a different breed from those in the East. They're effectively pushing Qaddafi's forces back, through the mixed agricultural/suburban areas that surround it. Of course, NATO is paving the way.

Within the article I found what might be a clue to the question I asked earlier, What's going on at the Eastern front? Apparently there was an engagement there that ended well for the rebels (although the only source they quoted was a rebel commander, so we can assume exaggeration). The rebels claimed they were moving towards Brega before NATO ordered them to fall back towards Ajdabiya in order to clear the way for more airstrikes. However I still doubt that the rebels in the East will be able to get it together for a successful offensive in the next few weeks.

Finn McCool said:

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The rebels in Misrata seem to be a different breed from those in the East. They're effectively pushing Qaddafi's forces back, through the mixed agricultural/suburban areas that surround it. Of course, NATO is paving the way.

Within the article I found what might be a clue to the question I asked earlier, What's going on at the Eastern front? Apparently there was an engagement there that ended well for the rebels (although the only source they quoted was a rebel commander, so we can assume exaggeration). The rebels claimed they were moving towards Brega before NATO ordered them to fall back towards Ajdabiya in order to clear the way for more airstrikes. However I still doubt that the rebels in the East will be able to get it together for a successful offensive in the next few weeks.

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The loss of the three oil depots in Misurata will be a big hit to their supplies though, now they must rely completely on the sea, I'm surprised they're still fighting so hard in the city though, they've been isolated for so long in that pocket, I'd be exhausted from non-stop street to street fighting for months now. I can't believe NATO, for all its military might missed those Gaddafi crop dusters, I cant see that happening in Sri Lanka but against the US, UK, France and Italy?

News from the east is probably slowing down because they're clamping down on journalist that are left there to avoid giving away positions. I really have no clue what they're up to though.

Semi-Lobster said:

The loss of the three oil depots in Misurata will be a big hit to their supplies though, now they must rely completely on the sea, I'm surprised they're still fighting so hard in the city though, they've been isolated for so long in that pocket, I'd be exhausted from non-stop street to street fighting for months now. I can't believe NATO, for all its military might missed those Gaddafi crop dusters, I cant see that happening in Sri Lanka but against the US, UK, France and Italy?

News from the east is probably slowing down because they're clamping down on journalist that are left there to avoid giving away positions. I really have no clue what they're up to though.

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Those fuel tanks were hit by Grad rocket fire, not ultralight aircraft as originally reported. According to all the sources I've read from Misrata, there's currently no shortage of fuel (while there is a shortage in Tripoli, ironically). Perhaps a shortage could develop. Qaddafi's forces have been pushed out of the densely built-up areas of the city except for around the airport. The most recent fighting is taking place on the outskirts of the city, in territory that sort of looks like rural Iraq to me.

In Misrata, the airport has fallen to the rebels. They are also pushing westward from Misrata into Ziltan, which has been occupied by Qaddafi troops but is definitely a pro-rebel city. There are probably some very poorly armed underground resisters there, as I've read various things about occasional combat in the city. Also, for the first time today, I saw video of rebels in Misrata using mortars.

The rebels in Misrata are kicking Qaddafi's ass with help from NATO. But they pay for territory in blood; in the combat videos casualties are fairly frequent. I don't think that they have enough manpower to make it all the way to Tripoli. Furthermore, as they push out from Misrata they'll be leaving the urban terrain that has served them so well, and will be extending their perimeter more and more, leaving their defenses thinner and thinner and ripe for a Qaddafi counterattack. If the rebels want a knockout blow, I believe they'll need to link up Misrata and the larger forces in the East. The Berber rebels in the Nafusa Mountains are doing a good job of holding their ground and serving as a distraction to Qaddafi, but I don't think that they have enough weapons to make a meaningful offensive unless they can link up with one of the other rebel enclaves, which is unlikely, because they are quite isolated up there.

For now, NATO needs to keep hammering Brega and any supplies Qaddafi tries to move to there along the coast road from Sirte and Tripoli. Unfortunately I don't think they have enough air resources to carry out terribly effective bombing in all of the theaters in Libya at once. NATO seems to be focusing on Misrata and Tripoli. I think that's a mistake; Misrata will stand on its own now and the bunkers they're hitting in Tripoli are probably empty anyway. They need to break Qaddafi's forces in Brega and clear the coast highway.