The Civil War in Libya

AssassinsMace said:

I was just watching a news report on TV and the reporter watching the rebels firing artillery they didn't know how to use where the rounds landed back on their own side. There was a Libyan who was studying in Canada who went back to fight for the rebels and he bought himself an assault rifle he didn't know how to operate. The media is reporting as if CIA involvement is the rebels' ace in the hole. Unless the CIA plans to fight the rebels' war for them, it's not as monumental as the media is making it. What are they doing except providing intelligence and a little organization. They're going to have to do more than even giving arms to the rebels if they're in that bad of shape.

Click to expand...

The rebels in the East of the country are generally pretty damn bad at fighting. They tend to flee at the first wiff of sporadic mortar and rocket fire. They never dig in and always cluster around the main coastal highway, the most obvious spot for them to be. Their sole type of offensive action seems to be "wild charge forward in pick up trucks and sedans".

In the West though, in Misrata, there's a different breed of rebels. The men that defend Misrata have beaten back Qaddafi's best forces, time after time, and it seems that they are still holding out in at least part of the city. Earlier I posted a video of combat in Misrata. You know the rebels there are more competent fighters, because, well, you can't see them! Only a few times in the video you see a technical peek out from behind a corner and fire, then speed away, or a lone silhouette fire an RPG then disappear. That's what urban warfare is all about. Might I remind you all as well that NATO has been very reluctant to strike targets inside the city itself for fear of civilian casualties, so Qaddafi's men don't really have to fear airstrikes so much inside built up areas. I've seen video of them hiding tanks in the city, under trees and inside destroyed buildings. However it is true that at least some of the artillery units that were shelling the city have been destroyed in airstrikes.

Throughout the last several days, the center of the battle in Misrata has been Tripoli Street and the government administrative complex in the center of the city. Qaddafi's tanks have met with serious difficulties in the city, you can see a guy take one out with an RPG at very close range in the video at this link:

The rebels are surrounded in Misrata. They apparently hold the port, and food/medical aid are coming in through there, but they only really have captured weaponry to fight with. Perhaps the rebels in Benghazi can send a ship to provide them with more stuff.

EDIT: I just wanted to add that Misrata seems to be acting as Qaddafi's Stalingrad. He's put his best troops in the city, and he's steadily grinding away at it. But by all accounts, government casualties have been heavy. Misrata is important because it's dividing Qaddafi's forces. If he captures it, he'll have a lot more resources for the fight in the East against the rebels based out of Benghazi, the useless ones. The only way Misrata will be saved is if the Benghazi faction can get their business together and win the see-saw desert war once and for all by pushing past Bin Jawad, then capturing or bypassing Sirte. EDIT #2: Adm. Mullen recently stated that the main reason coalition airstrikes have let up recently is the weather in Libya. Apparently there's been sandstorms.

Finn McCool said:

EDIT: I just wanted to add that Misrata seems to be acting as Qaddafi's Stalingrad. He's put his best troops in the city, and he's steadily grinding away at it. But by all accounts, government casualties have been heavy. Misrata is important because it's dividing Qaddafi's forces. If he captures it, he'll have a lot more resources for the fight in the East against the rebels based out of Benghazi, the useless ones. The only way Misrata will be saved is if the Benghazi faction can get their business together and win the see-saw desert war once and for all by pushing past Bin Jawad, then capturing or bypassing Sirte.

Click to expand...

You do know for those rag-tag muppets to get their acts together in time will be nigh impossible, right?

On the other hand, I wonder why don't Qaddafi forces use ballistic missiles? If I remember correctly Libya have some SCUDs and other heavy artillery rockets. If government forces use them to flatten Benghazi instead of laying siege, this whole thing would over before UN deliberated the no-fly-zone resolution.

MwRYum said:

You do know for those rag-tag muppets to get their acts together in time will be nigh impossible, right?

On the other hand, I wonder why don't Qaddafi forces use ballistic missiles? If I remember correctly Libya have some SCUDs and other heavy artillery rockets. If government forces use them to flatten Benghazi instead of laying siege, this whole thing would over before UN deliberated the no-fly-zone resolution.

Click to expand...

Ballistic missiles ?? that's crazy.

There will be huge civilian casualties .. and if that happens, Gaddafi is doomed.


There is no way Gaddaffi can win this war militarily. If he has any sense, he needs to be able to work out a political solution. Get into talk with the "rebels".

If he can't make that happen, he's doomed. Still, he wants to avoid being another Saddam Hussein ..... best he can try for is being a Hosni Mubarak.

Gaddafi should realize that : Gaddaffi =/= Libya.

Why is he so fixated about power? He can move out elegantly and Libyan people can internally solve that matter ..... free elections etc.

Libya will be much luckier, if it gets away like Egypt ..... and things don't go so far as Iraq-isation of Libya.

MwRYum said:

You do know for those rag-tag muppets to get their acts together in time will be nigh impossible, right?

On the other hand, I wonder why don't Qaddafi forces use ballistic missiles? If I remember correctly Libya have some SCUDs and other heavy artillery rockets. If government forces use them to flatten Benghazi instead of laying siege, this whole thing would over before UN deliberated the no-fly-zone resolution.

Click to expand...

I have a lot of faith in the ability of Misrata to hold out under siege even though they have lost parts of the city. They have NATO air support, and there's enough circumstantial evidence to make me believe that they have at least some limited support by sea bringing them ammunition, although I admit I can't prove that. Misrata has already withstood many waves of attacks by Qaddafi's best forces.

As for the rebels in the East, there's reports from the BBC today that the rebel military commanders in Benghazi finally allowed more of the military defectors to go to the front lines. So apparently in the last 24 hours there's been an influx of uniformed, better trained and equipped soldiers on the front lines in the desert between Ajdabiya and Brega. Combined with the resumption of NATO air operations now that the weather has cleared, I think that the rebel's fortunes will soon improve.

On the subject of SCUDs, at least one of Libya's missiles (an SRBM or MRBM, I'm not sure), was captured by anti-government mobs, I think in Benghazi. Check the pictures I showed early in the thread. Perhaps the SCUDs some of the SCUDs were destroyed before they could be deployed by coalition airstrikes or have been destroyed subsequently.

bingo said:

Ballistic missiles ?? that's crazy.

There will be huge civilian casualties .. and if that happens, Gaddafi is doomed.


There is no way Gaddaffi can win this war militarily. If he has any sense, he needs to be able to work out a political solution. Get into talk with the "rebels".

If he can't make that happen, he's doomed. Still, he wants to avoid being another Saddam Hussein ..... best he can try for is being a Hosni Mubarak.

Gaddafi should realize that : Gaddaffi =/= Libya.

Why is he so fixated about power? He can move out elegantly and Libyan people can internally solve that matter ..... free elections etc.

Libya will be much luckier, if it gets away like Egypt ..... and things don't go so far as Iraq-isation of Libya.

Click to expand...

A standard dictator would never squirm with the notion of civilian casualties, especially when entire city joined the rebel's cause - that makes them all rebels, and examples needs to make out of them.

If Qaddafi can't do that, he's a failed dictator then, totally unfit to rule anything more than himself.

Finn McCool said:

I have a lot of faith in the ability of Misrata to hold out under siege even though they have lost parts of the city. They have NATO air support, and there's enough circumstantial evidence to make me believe that they have at least some limited support by sea bringing them ammunition, although I admit I can't prove that. Misrata has already withstood many waves of attacks by Qaddafi's best forces.

As for the rebels in the East, there's reports from the BBC today that the rebel military commanders in Benghazi finally allowed more of the military defectors to go to the front lines. So apparently in the last 24 hours there's been an influx of uniformed, better trained and equipped soldiers on the front lines in the desert between Ajdabiya and Brega. Combined with the resumption of NATO air operations now that the weather has cleared, I think that the rebel's fortunes will soon improve.

On the subject of SCUDs, at least one of Libya's missiles (an SRBM or MRBM, I'm not sure), was captured by anti-government mobs, I think in Benghazi. Check the pictures I showed early in the thread. Perhaps the SCUDs some of the SCUDs were destroyed before they could be deployed by coalition airstrikes or have been destroyed subsequently.

Click to expand...

There's a good reason why every army in the world dread MOUT, even the US and Israelis - who have a lot of experience in such - would've to make special adaptation to their doctrine and gear especially for MOUT, and Russians would choose to flatten Grozny instead. Urban fighting is a bloody meat grinder even for the best prepared attackers.

But even without SCUDs, ain't Libya have MLRS like BM-21s or other tubed artillery to use?

MwRYum said:

There's a good reason why every army in the world dread MOUT, even the US and Israelis - who have a lot of experience in such - would've to make special adaptation to their doctrine and gear especially for MOUT, and Russians would choose to flatten Grozny instead. Urban fighting is a bloody meat grinder even for the best prepared attackers.

But even without SCUDs, ain't Libya have MLRS like BM-21s or other tubed artillery to use?

Click to expand...

They did have a lot of MLRS and various kinds of towed and SP artillery blasting Misrata but a lot of it was destroyed in various airstrikes as they fired from the outskirts of the city. There's still artillery around, but its usefulness is limited because they seem to be trying to hide all their heavy stuff in urban areas. So they have to keep it hidden/not necessarily in the best position a lot. But they're still using it, just not as effectively as before.

Here's a bit about the rebel's most recent attack on Brega.


Disorganized, as always. Their rockets won't do them much good unless they can mass them and at least sort of aim them rather than say "Enemy is that way, point the launcher over there". And still, they flee rather than dig in when they catch even a little bit of artillery.

Finn McCool said:

Disorganized, as always. Their rockets won't do them much good unless they can mass them and at least sort of aim them rather than say "Enemy is that way, point the launcher over there". And still, they flee rather than dig in when they catch even a little bit of artillery.

Click to expand...

That's about as pathetic as, or worse than, the South Vietnam troops I reckon...if their progress determined entirely on air strikes by NATO, they're useless in every way.

MwRYum said:

A standard dictator would never squirm with the notion of civilian casualties, especially when entire city joined the rebel's cause - that makes them all rebels, and examples needs to make out of them.

If Qaddafi can't do that, he's a failed dictator then, totally unfit to rule anything more than himself.

Click to expand...

If Qaddafi does not squirm over killing scores of Libyan civilians ..... then he has no right to rule Libyans.

If he does not even have implicit support of Libyan civilians, he will anyway go ..... with or without external air strikes.

A ruler does need the consent of the ruled. Even, CPC will lose power, if it were to lose the implicit support of common chinese. That's why they worry about inflation, joblessness etc. etc.

Qaddafi better ensure that he has Libyan civilians on his side ..... else he's a dead man.

Dead man --> with or without external air strikes. Mind you.

MwRYum said:

That's about as pathetic as, or worse than, the South Vietnam troops I reckon...if their progress determined entirely on air strikes by NATO, they're useless in every way.

Click to expand...

They're not being used properly. The rebels need to organize their military defectors to man the artillery and serve as the "backbone" that actually holds territory. They can let the "pickup truck brigades" do what they should be doing, borrowing a page from the British Long Range Desert Group and freely ranging through the desert, showing up here and there behind Qaddafi's front lines. The government forces have no air presence at all, and their right flank just dangles off into the endless Sahara desert. Their line right now probably consists of some very ad hoc defenses around Brega. The civilian rebels should try to find their way around that flank and just generally wreak hit and run havoc from random directions with their technicals. Hit Brega from behind. Ambush the next convoy that comes along the coast road bringing supplies to Brega, then disappear into the desert. Without air support Qaddafi's forces will never be able to catch very many, and by going out there they expose themselves to airstrikes.

It's been reported in multiple news outlets that the SAS, US Special Forces and Egyptian special forces are training up rebels back in Benghazi. They'll probably start getting arms soon too. There's no shortage of cannon fodder. So there's no strategic reason not to try a new strategy, because obviously "standing around right next to the highway and waiting for mortar rounds to scare us off" is not working.

bingo said:

If Qaddafi does not squirm over killing scores of Libyan civilians ..... then he has no right to rule Libyans.

If he does not even have implicit support of Libyan civilians, he will anyway go ..... with or without external air strikes.

A ruler does need the consent of the ruled. Even, CPC will lose power, if it were to lose the implicit support of common chinese. That's why they worry about inflation, joblessness etc. etc.

Qaddafi better ensure that he has Libyan civilians on his side ..... else he's a dead man.

Dead man --> with or without external air strikes. Mind you.

Click to expand...

I called Qaddafi a "dictator", not "ruler", y'know...what? You're too thick to see the sarcasm in my wording?

And try not to understand the world in your "standard" western model, that presumption has been causing more bloodshed than good...to my understanding, the core of what's happening in Libya has more to do about tribal feud than people's mandate of a modern nation.

Finn McCool said:

They're not being used properly. The rebels need to organize their military defectors to man the artillery and serve as the "backbone" that actually holds territory. They can let the "pickup truck brigades" do what they should be doing, borrowing a page from the British Long Range Desert Group and freely ranging through the desert, showing up here and there behind Qaddafi's front lines. The government forces have no air presence at all, and their right flank just dangles off into the endless Sahara desert. Their line right now probably consists of some very ad hoc defenses around Brega. The civilian rebels should try to find their way around that flank and just generally wreak hit and run havoc from random directions with their technicals. Hit Brega from behind. Ambush the next convoy that comes along the coast road bringing supplies to Brega, then disappear into the desert. Without air support Qaddafi's forces will never be able to catch very many, and by going out there they expose themselves to airstrikes.

It's been reported in multiple news outlets that the SAS, US Special Forces and Egyptian special forces are training up rebels back in Benghazi. They'll probably start getting arms soon too. There's no shortage of cannon fodder. So there's no strategic reason not to try a new strategy, because obviously "standing around right next to the highway and waiting for mortar rounds to scare us off" is not working.

Click to expand...

That'd require a sound command and control structure, with competent officers and NCOs, with professional soldiers, and decent supply network to give it a chance to work right...but the rebels are exactly the opposite, as far as we can tell, even the defecting regulars are only slightly better, their numbers and equipment are inferior in both quantity and quality to the government troops; they falter at the government forces' artillery barrage, non coordinated attack, dismal display of weapon skills, and got their face smacked dead hard without NATO air strike tells all.

As for rumors that rebels getting training by foreign spec ops, I'd say don't bank on it so much, not at least for another 3 months, because that's the minimum to turn a civilian into infantryman; if you want to make them into specialists or officer grade material, that'd be further 3 to 6 months at least.

My 2 cents? At their present state, the rebels have no hope in winning this war themselves, they need foreign armies to do the heavy work because they're utterly incompetent to do so.