The Civil War in Libya

solarz · Mar 20, 2011

kwaigonegin said:
While their AF may be antiquated it does however look like Libya has a pretty extensive SAM network. I'm incline to believe that's what most of the tomahawks are sent to reach out and touch.

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I wonder how well that system is going to stand up to the air strikes. A US official is already saying that the Libya air defense has been severely crippled.

Right now, I believe Gaddafi's best chance, if not only chance, is to quickly take over part of Benghazi and hide his army in the city. Once he starts an urban war with the rebels, the Western air strikes would become useless.

I wonder why Gaddafi attacked again after declaring ceasefire. A ceasefire would have been much more advantageous to him. Of course, it's entirely possible that he did *NOT* break any ceasefire, but the western media and rebels simply claimed that he did, and went on to attack anyway. Or perhaps Gaddafi learned that that was the West's planned response to his ceasefire, so he decided to attack first.

FarkTypeSoldier · Mar 20, 2011

Bltizo said:
I'm saying that if he won the region might become more stable afterwards than if the rebels won.
And personally I don't care that much towards Qaddafi, just stability and the well being for his people after the war. If he can exercise restraint after/if he wins then I see no reason why people can't support him (after all he's not fighting "civilians" now, but armed, dangerous rebels).

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With the no fly zone in place now... who knows. Qaddafi can still win with his ground forces, it depends on whether the coalition decides to bomb ground targets.

And now the US and NATO interferes and help the rebels of Libya, just like the 1980s Afghan-Soviet war. CIA helped to train the Afghanistan Rebel against Soviet forces... What the Afghan rebel then after now is known as 'al-Qaeda'.

What do you guys think after the Libyan rebels and allies won? What if the rebels turned out more worst than the current regime?

SampanViking · Mar 20, 2011

Why would the rebels wish to observe a cease fire, when it was wholly contrary to their interests?

Remember the Mirage that was shot down yesterday over Benghazi? It was being used as prime evidence that Gadaffi was breaking the cease fire. It was only later that it was admitted that it was a rebel plane, and then interest it that story line rapidly disappeared. Not that it mattered by then of course as the NATO airstrikes had begun.

solarz · Mar 20, 2011

Has anyone considered the economic ramifications of this military intervention? Missiles, bombs and jet fuel all cost a lot of money. The main participants of this intervention all have economic troubles at home, while the great emerging economies all chose to sit this out.
This has the potential consequence of further hastening the shift of global balance of power.

Dolcevita · Mar 20, 2011

solarz said:
Has anyone considered the economic ramifications of this military intervention? Missiles, bombs and jet fuel all cost a lot of money. The main participants of this intervention all have economic troubles at home, while the great emerging economies all chose to sit this out.
This has the potential consequence of further hastening the shift of global balance of power.

I'm sure the Saudi Monarchy will be more than happy and able to finance the cost for the Missiles, bombs and jet fuel. They had never liked Col Khadaffy.

IronsightSniper · Mar 20, 2011

solarz said:
Has anyone considered the economic ramifications of this military intervention? Missiles, bombs and jet fuel all cost a lot of money. The main participants of this intervention all have economic troubles at home, while the great emerging economies all chose to sit this out.
This has the potential consequence of further hastening the shift of global balance of power.

A couple million/billion dollars isn't a lot in retrospect.

Pointblank · Mar 20, 2011

solarz said:
I wonder how well that system is going to stand up to the air strikes. A US official is already saying that the Libya air defense has been severely crippled.

Right now, I believe Gaddafi's best chance, if not only chance, is to quickly take over part of Benghazi and hide his army in the city. Once he starts an urban war with the rebels, the Western air strikes would become useless.

I wonder why Gaddafi attacked again after declaring ceasefire. A ceasefire would have been much more advantageous to him. Of course, it's entirely possible that he did *NOT* break any ceasefire, but the western media and rebels simply claimed that he did, and went on to attack anyway. Or perhaps Gaddafi learned that that was the West's planned response to his ceasefire, so he decided to attack first.

The issue is the long supply lines Gaddafi's forces require to reach Benghazi... and with the wide open desert in which anything larger than a motorcycle would stick out like a sore thumb, his forces in Benghazi would have to fight with what they already have, and any attempts at resupply would be bombed to pieces. Already a couple of convoys have been bombed out with large quantities of military hardware and supplies up in smoke.

zoom · Mar 20, 2011

How can they not be going after Gaddafi and at the same time bombing his residence or administrative buildings?

bd popeye · Mar 20, 2011

zoom said:
How can they not be going after Gaddafi and at the same time bombing his residence or administrative buildings?

He has the cowards favorite defense..human shields..

Supporters of Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafi gather in his heavily fortified Tripoli compound in this still image taken from video March 19, 2011. Thousands of Libyans packed into the compound on Saturday to form a human shield against possible air strikes by allied forces.

Supporters of Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafi stand as a human shield at his heavily fortified compound in Tripoli March 19, 2011. Thousands of Libyans packed into Muammar Gaddafi's heavily fortified Tripoli compound on Saturday to form a human shield against possible air strikes by allied forces.

Youths, standing on a wall of the house of Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafi, form a human shield in Tripoli March 20, 2011.

PanAsian · Mar 20, 2011

solarz said:
Has anyone considered the economic ramifications of this military intervention? Missiles, bombs and jet fuel all cost a lot of money. The main participants of this intervention all have economic troubles at home, while the great emerging economies all chose to sit this out.
This has the potential consequence of further hastening the shift of global balance of power.

Continued dominance by the current top dogs (basically the countries enforcing the 'no fly zone') is what this is all about. The future economic benefits they get from overthrowing Gaddafi and installing a friendly regime far outweighs the cost of military intervention. Overthrowing Gaddafi is definitely the goal even though the enforcers are denying it.

The emerging economies BRIC are all sitting this out (they all abstained in the UN Security Council vote) because 1) they simply do not have the military capability to intervene meaningfully, and 2) this is not happening in their backyard. Libya is just across the Mediterranean from West-central Europe and sits on the edge of Western European and Middle Eastern spheres of influence.

The Civil War in Libya

solarz

Brigadier

FarkTypeSoldier

Junior Member

SampanViking

The Capitalist

solarz

Brigadier

Dolcevita

Major

IronsightSniper

Junior Member

Pointblank

Senior Member

zoom

Junior Member

bd popeye

The Last Jedi

PanAsian

Major