Taiwan's Reaction to PLA Force Modernization

I think the iniatial question re tankers was, if the US would lent it's own. These would then pretty well be operating out of Okinawa.The distance of perhaps 600 or less km wouldn't really hurt their time on station.
If Taiwan wanted to base some on the island, this might become difficult since these are high value targets wich are difficul to hide.
Such high value targets like AWACS or tankers, will be guarded by perhaps one or two four-ships in anyway. Since you must always think about the possibility of a fighter sweep of your opponent trying to get them down.
If those tankers should come from the USAF, these will fore sure be guarded by F-15 and/or -16.
I guess the tankers and their escorts would still fly their patterns 100+ km out on the ocean, while other fighters perhaps even set up a BARCAP.

I think it's not a sign of desperation to think about the possibility of tankers involved in such a scenario, but just opens up new ways to go.
And, btw, planning for the worst case and doing better than it is always better than planning for normal where something goes wrong and you are in the worst case unprepared.

We've had the discussion if PLAAF can do significant damage to most major ROCAF bases and SAM sites with one initial barrage all over already.
I doubt they could, but then again am probably not in a position to argue it out.

ROCAF should do real hard to get/keep their aircraft fleet available, then will already help. We'll see how good they will do.

Skywatcher said:

The Harriers seem to be getting a bit long in the tooth. And I'm not sure of their desirability for anything other than interdiction of amphibious PLA forces (A Harrier fighting with a J-10 sounds rather one sided), which could be done with MRLS or attack helicopters.

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Well, the ROCAF probably only wants the Harriers as an interim measure, to provide Taiwan with a jump-jet fighter until the Lightning II (hopefully) becomes available to Taiwan by the year 2020.


Plus, if I'm not mistaken, some Harriers can fire the AIM-120 AMRAAM. That should make things a little bit better as far as air to air goes.

Scratch said:

I think the iniatial question re tankers was, if the US would lent it's own. These would then pretty well be operating out of Okinawa.The distance of perhaps 600 or less km wouldn't really hurt their time on station.

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Probably would work, but Taiwan would need to allow its pilots to train and practice refueling techniques regularly. That probably requires that Taiwan have a tanker of its own, unless the USAF is willing to lend Taiwan tankers for practice (or, more likely, Taiwan changes its training syllabus in Luke AFB Arizona to include regular air-to-air refueling practice - wait, I think Taiwan already trains for that?)

Clouded Leopard said:

or, more likely, Taiwan changes its training syllabus in Luke AFB Arizona to include regular air-to-air refueling practice - wait, I think Taiwan already trains for that?

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Certainly Taiwanese F-16 pilots have had training in the past with refuelling - I don't know whether that was on a semi-regular basis, or just a few times.

To take the conversation away from the China scenario for a moment, refueling tanker aircraft would also allow Taiwan to run flights more easily to Taiping Island in the Spratlys.

Clouded Leopard said:

Well, the ROCAF probably only wants the Harriers as an interim measure, to provide Taiwan with a jump-jet fighter until the Lightning II (hopefully) becomes available to Taiwan by the year 2020.

Plus, if I'm not mistaken, some Harriers can fire the AIM-120 AMRAAM. That should make things a little bit better as far as air to air goes.

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The british FA2 SeaHarriers can fire the AMRAAM. In fact I think that were the first british jets to get that capability. I don't know about other Harrier types like the AV-8B of the USMC. But it is certainly possible to provide them with those upgrades.
Such little jets that jump out of a wood or a mountain valley and launch some AMRAAM could probably be pretty effective. Given that from the beginning they were design for the RAF to be operated from small indipendant bases. As ObiWan already noted elsewhere.
With recent upgrades they perhaps could be pretty usefull. I also read that because of their engine concept they can perform some cute maneuvers.

It might perhaps be difficult to find a decent number with sufficient flying hours left.

Tankers to reach the Spratlys would most likely require them to be stationed on Taiwan itself. Besides the already mentioned problems. They need to be bought, maintained, crews trained and so on.
Taiwan already stumbles with it's defence expenditure.

Scratch said:

It might perhaps be difficult to find a decent number with sufficient flying hours left.

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True. Perhaps some airframe refurbishing/repair would be needed.

The Harriers would probably become available when the Lightning II comes on line for the Marines. Or maybe, if the Marines are substituting Super Hornet for Harrier right now, Taiwan could grab them right away.

Scratch said:

Tankers to reach the Spratlys would most likely require them to be stationed on Taiwan itself. Besides the already mentioned problems. They need to be bought, maintained, crews trained and so on.
Taiwan already stumbles with it's defence expenditure.

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I know, I don't think that tankers are a wise investment given Taiwan's already-limited budget.

FuManChu

Depends how many they would want to buy. But I think they could afford a fair number of the standard, with maybe a smaller B buy. Depends on what the price was by the time it was offered.

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True, though I imagine at its current price unless they seriously marked it down it would be a bit over-the-top. Is F-35B capable of full VTOL or does it have short take-off? If so, with Slammers and improved Sidewinders it would be pretty deadly in small numbers. I think it would be a more worth-wile purchase than more F-16s regardless. I think maybe for the price of 66 F-16s Taiwan should be able to get at least a squadron of F-35Bs.

Scratch

Well, the ROCAF probably only wants the Harriers as an interim measure, to provide Taiwan with a jump-jet fighter until the Lightning II (hopefully) becomes available to Taiwan by the year 2020.

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Well when the British and U.S. adopt F-35B there should be some Harriers for Taiwan to purchase. Are we still making the Harrier and, if not, would we be able to make a special amount for Taiwan or is it better for them to get second-hand?

Plus, if I'm not mistaken, some Harriers can fire the AIM-120 AMRAAM. That should make things a little bit better as far as air to air goes.

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The Harrier II Plus can fire the Slammer.

I think a deal for 66 Harriers with Slammer capability would actually be a nice alternative to the F-16 deal and would free up money for more missiles, which is badly needed.

To everyone, does Taiwan have any ships that could potentially carry a Harrier?

Vlad Plasmius said:

FuManChu
To everyone, does Taiwan have any ships that could potentially carry a Harrier?

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I must admit, I had never thought of it from this angle. I don't think Taiwan has any ships that can carry Harrier. Taiwan wants Harrier mostly to operate VTOL, in case runway airstrips are damaged.

Vlad Plasmius said:

FuManChu
Are we still making the Harrier and, if not, would we be able to make a special amount for Taiwan or is it better for them to get second-hand?

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I believe the Harrier is no longer in production.

The last remanufactured Harrier II Plus was delivered in Ded '03, wich marked the end of the produciton line.
The british I think also only upgrade existing Harriers, the last time from '03 to '06 to GR.9 standart.
Reopening the line for Taiwan wouldn't be economic I think. And if they are to buy F-35s from 2020 onward, buying second hand should be quiet ok.
However, Harrier replacement in the UK and US will take time, and those recently upgraded ones will probably be replaced last.
I gues one or two SQs should be possible, with AMRAAM armament and perhaps an added IRST ...
These could then last until Lightning IIs arrive.
But more aircraft are probably needed earlier, so perhaps aquiring some Harriers instead of only F-16 might be a move to consider.

The F-35B is fully VTO capable, but of course that restricts payload somewhat. For it's purpuse of AD it shouldn't be that critical.