Taiwan's Reaction to PLA Force Modernization

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optionsss

Junior Member
Agreed, during the late 90s the PLA had a report about possible Taiwan straight conflict and one thing they mentioned is lack of airfield around the region to launch a large surprise attack. But for the attrition warfare the side with numbering advantage generally wins.

I am worried about the PLA's ability to coordinate resources from all three branches(airforce,navy and army), to fight a high intensive warfare. They are picking up in this area, but unless a war happens, you never know what kind of problem might surface. Not that I want a war, but just a fact from past experience of all the military around the globe.
 

szbd

Junior Member
It depends what you see to be the numbers. China can only field part of its airforce against Taiwan. Also there would have to be a reserve of its modern jets that China would want to keep, lest it be left open to bullying from a neighbour.

Why would China reserve her modern jets? What neighbor need to be bullyed? Even if there were, ballastic missiles for attack and old jets for defence is not enough?

China has 300+ su27 series, about 70 J10 I think, maybe 100 JH7/JH7A, 100 J8III, all can be used to against taiwan.

Bout the missile transportation, it can be very fast. How many can a C5 cary?
 
D

Deleted member 675

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Why would China reserve her modern jets?

Some. You don't think China should bleed itself dry fighting Taiwan, do you?

What neighbor need to be bullyed?

Don't tell me China's armed forces are only designed to deal with Taiwan - it needs to potentially be able to deal with other neighbours if problems arise.
 

kca90

New Member
It depends what you see to be the numbers. China can only field part of its airforce against Taiwan. Also there would have to be a reserve of its modern jets that China would want to keep, lest it be left open to bullying from a neighbour.

I don't agree with you about China's immediate neighboring countries trying
to bully or attack China, while it is busy engaging Taiwan and the US. They will stay
at the sidelines and be neutral. Knowing China have lots of nuclear missiles.
It's to dangerous for their country and population. Who knows they might even side with China. eg. Pakistan, North Korea , Russia?
 
D

Deleted member 675

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I don't agree with you about China's immediate neighboring countries trying to bully or attack China, while it is busy engaging Taiwan and the US. They will stay at the sidelines and be neutral. Knowing China have lots of nuclear missiles.

Good grief, China won't be able to replicate new fighters immediately after the war is over, will it?! It would take years (even longer) to rebuild its air force (not to mention its navy) if its most modern elements took a heavy beating.

Also with the current proposed revisions to Japanese defence policy they may well become partners in any US endeavour to support Taiwan.
 

kca90

New Member
Good grief, China won't be able to replicate new fighters immediately after the war is over, will it?! It would take years (even longer) to rebuild its air force (not to mention its navy) if its most modern elements took a heavy beating.

Also with the current proposed revisions to Japanese defence policy they may well become partners in any US endeavour to support Taiwan.

Are you enviosioning that all of China's modern combat planes going to be
destroyed? Of course not. Are all of China's pilots stupid and are so dumb
that they are going to lose all the time in combat. I don't think so. Well,
we just have to wait and find out how many are left in case they go to war.
:)
 
D

Deleted member 675

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Are you enviosioning that all of China's modern combat planes going to be destroyed? Of course not.

Certainly not if China leaves itself a reserve, as I mentioned earlier.

Are all of China's pilots stupid and are so dumb that they are going to lose all the time in combat.

Are all of Taiwan's and the US' (maybe also Japan's) pilots "stupid" and "so dumb that they are going to lose all the time"?
 

kca90

New Member
Certainly not if China leaves itself a reserve, as I mentioned earlier.



Are all of Taiwan's and the US' (maybe also Japan's) pilots "stupid" and "so dumb that they are going to lose all the time"?

As I mentioned earlier too. We have to wait and see. What will be the outcome in case there will be war. :D:china:
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
I really do not have to read whole your post to find errors.

1. TC2, the public records are 200 against 130 fighters from years ago. The production stopped? According to sources, yes due to the switch to other missiles but no confirmation.

Sorry but I find that your own posts is full of errors.

According to someone who posted in TDF, Taiwan imported 200 seekers from Motorola. The seekers were actually Motorola's contenders to the AMRAAM contract, which Raytheon eventually won.

There is no switch to other missiles, plain and simple. The only question is whether Taiwan is able to copy the seekers.

2. MICA, wrong number since even the total number of missiles imported was not confirmed by any official and most of the numbers reported were in 900 to 1200 range. Also there were no records indicating how many of them were MICA or Magic 2.

Nonsense. You really don't know the armstrade do you? By UN arms treaty, exporters are obliged to declare the number. There is no number indicating higher than 400 for the MICA.

3. AIM-120, not accurate again. There were at least two shipment to make the public reported number to more than 200. Please remember, ROCAF's F-16 fleet is still under going major upgrade to use AIM-120 and, possibly, JDAM.

Wrong and wrong and wrong. Who do you think you're talking to? There is no shipment indicating over 200 in number. The only order was for 120 AMRAAMs, and they were not immediately delivered. Some were stored in Luke AFB for visiting ROCAF F-16 pilots to test. The majority was stored in Guam. In October 2004, as the US was convinced that China had significant amounts of ARH BVRAAM, was the missiles allowed to be sent to Taiwan.

And no, there is upgrade project on the ROCAF F-16 to use JDAM.

You also don't even know your own F-16s. The ROCAF F-16s came with AMRAAM support in the first place. There was a modification to enable them to use the C5 version, but there are is no concrete plans being implemented to enable them to use C7, which requires another upgrade.

Only recently did Taiwan sign up for a second order of 237 AMRAAMs.

Since I read posts here, I wonder you would like a balance voices with comparable facts or just one side of stories?

I had chace to chat with a friend from China who has lots experience with military information over there. I asked him about the 100 upgrade kits you mentioned and he said he never heard of it. Also according to the experience with China's local forum, if this is true, there would be tons of posts against or brag about it.

Sorry but Chinese do not brag about the Russian stuff. And I would wager your so called Chinese source against Jane's Senior Editor Robert Hewson, who wrote both articles, and who can talk to the Russian manufacturers directly. You don't become a Senior Editor in Jane's for nothing.

There are quite a number of posts that does say the J-11 has upgraded avionics, having more powerful processors, for example, without stating way. And it is photographically proven that the J-11 has a second MFD, compared to the generic Su-27. External photographs show the presence of a black box consistent to this MFD under the windshield. In the year 2000, KANWA also reported Su-27UBK arriving in China at that time had software upgrades for R-77 and these planes too have the box under the windshield.

If you understand the architecture of the N001, N001VE/VEP radars used on these planes, what the Russians did was to install a seperate subsystem called SUV-VE on top of the existing radar to support the R-77.

However, there is no thing like this spreading as other news like J-10. Also, AWST published an article in 2004 (I think) ablut passive R27. In that article it also mentioned that the production no of R77 was couple hundered. So, plus those export customers' interview, I wonder the number here is way way too high. Plus, China is going to have PL-12, why purchase R77? That's not what their usual wisdom.

Lol. In 2003, KANWA mentioned the production of R-77 was speeded up to meet quotas for both India and China. Why purchase R-77? It is for the MKKs, MK2s and partly for the J-11 upgrades. China would definitely purchase enough R-77s for the MKK/MK2s since they cannot modify these planes. The J-11s they can defer to using PL-12. 1000 R-77s would be enough for the 100 MKKs/MK2s, but not if another 100 J-11s were to make use of it, which would require another order of 1000.

It is not as if both MKK/MK2s, Su-27s and J-11s are not capable of using the R-27ER, which is the extended range R-27, that is already documented (SIPRI, arms registry) and photographed in PLAAF service. Although it remains SARN, the kinematic performance of the R-27ER exceeds even that of the R-77. In addition to all that, arms registry records indicate as much 3200 R-73s were imported by China.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
You have to consider that there is still a realistic limit as to how many aircraft can be fielded by each side simultaneously over the Taiwan strait. Avoidance of friendly fire, keeping track of all operations by your side, different branches of the military all fighting in the same very limited area...

Which is exactly why the PLAAF is modernizing. They don't just intend to win by sheer numbers. They intend to win even in one to one encounters. Ching kuo, Block 20, Mirage 2000, they're all good against a mainly J-6/J-7 fleet. But there are not acquisitions against when these hordes are Flankers, J-10s, and even upgraded J-8IIs with PL-12s (which there may be at least 5 regiments of over 30 aircraft each, not to mention all those older J-8IIs still brandishing PL-11s. (Regiments in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 37th, and 21st have J-8F, with the 9th being upgraded to such standard).

The weight increases furthermore when JH-7s are factored, and the official mockups of the JH-7As show PL-12s installed. The J-11B which has gone into serial production, has entered training regiment, and is now slated for one regiment conversion. Down the pike, FC-1s may be added to the fleet.

Another is force multipliers. The PLAAF is still wet around the ears on this one, but their moves are bold---the platforms they are testing are using ESA techniques, when the vast majority of the AEW platforms around the world are MSA.

It is not reasonable to hypothesize that China would be able to field all of its advanced fighters against Taiwan, and likewise it's not reasonable to assume Taiwan could do the same. At the most, I think coordinating 50~80 jets at a time in the air is already strain for the battle commanders of each side - look at past air campaign operations in other military conflicts.

As such, the ratio of attrition and the rate at which resources can be replaced becomes increasingly important. Taiwan has little to lose by tossing all of its Air force into battle (obviously not at the same time), while it is strategically unwise for China to go all in, seeing as it has additional priorities to worry about - which is a reason why I play with the numbers loosely when imagining scenarios.

The problem of Taiwan is that their airfields are likely to fall under SSM attack, even long range MLRS, in addition to cruise missiles and air launched standoff weapons (H-6H with KD-63, JH-7A with KD-88, Su-30MKK with Kh-59ME, plus the near future development of H-6K, which appears it can brandish at least 6 cruise missiles, 8 if internal belly stores are used). A number of SSMs when used against a single target, coming down at hypersonic speeds with a 1 ton warhead, will have an accumulative effect similar to a tactical nuke.

This will have a great impact on the operability of the fields, and hence the number of aircraft you can send up, if the aircraft are not destroyed on the ground. It is true that the ROCAF aircraft are well sheltered, which is why the PLAAF has also invested in standoff EO guided bombs and weapons in addition to LGBs.

The problems against the ROCAF has now taken a new dimension because of GPS/Beidou/GLOSNASS guided bombs like the LS-6 and the LT-1. The picture of the J-8F testing the LS-6 turns out to belong to a training group, which means the weapon has progressed faster than anticipated.

I put much more faith on the ROC SAM defenses than the winged side of the ROCAF. SAMs are much harder to preempt and do not provide a fixed ground target like an air force base,
 
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