Of course, I would agree if PRC decides that nuke is an option then most of the debate is thrown out the window, but as most of us also agree that the global political consequences of this would be too high for almost anyone to seriously take. your counting on alot of stuff to fall in place and if some of them don't not only is the PRC screwed but humanity itself might be at stake.
Let's point out the obvious, in a nuclear war, China can not completely destroy the US, even if we assume they manage to land ALL their nukes where they want, however the US can most likely level almost all of China.
The real question we should ask is, and which many people often don't really clearly see, is how much conventional capacity does China really have in the event of attacking Taiwan?
Going back to the original war game article, the assumpion that the PLA would sail 100,000 men in a landing invasion is pretty absurd, such an invasion would take months to prepare at least and can't be done unnoticed, by that point not only Taiwan would be massively mobilized (in which case teh 100,000 men would still end up being badly out numbered) and the US navy would have more than enough time to be in place. Unlike Operation overlord Taiwan also don't have much of a range of places where you can land. espeically a truely large force, would almost surely have to be somwhere in central to central southern Taiwan to have enough of a beach to make such a landing.
The most easy way to take Taiwan is simply if China can somehow make the US concede and withdraw it's support, at that point no shots need to be fired, China could simply use the UN to impose crazy sanction on Taiwan (if the US concede then this is simple) and we'll be forced into talking immediately under very unfavorable terms. But given that Ron Paul probably won't be President anytime soon, this situation is fairly unlikely
The Taiwanese have become highly skilled at operating their aircraft from highways around the island and with forewarning of any invasion, these aircraft would pose a considerable threat to any landing force. It would be difficult to find the improvised airfields and destroy them. This is a common plan used to defeat a superior enemy - the Swedish and Swiss have planned on this for decades.
Still, if China carried out a conventional or nuclear attack against Taiwan, I wonder how enthusiastic the American people would be about providing assistance -. Let's hope the Chinese don't attempt to take the island, the amount of military and civilian casualties would be unimaginable.
I really don't think China and Taiwan will go to war unless something really drastic happens. Not saying that it is such a drastic event, but what would Taiwan do if China and Japan did come to blows over the Diaoyutai/Senkakus? Would Taiwan just sit it out? Covertly help one side or the other with intelligence etc? I am having a hard time picturing Taiwan actively partaking militarily in such a conflict despite their water cannon duel with Japan.
Taiwan will be secretly pressured by the US to accept an inferior (albeit semi-autonomous) status within the PRC.
US would rather save face by claiming a moral victory after China-Taiwan unification rather than a complete defeat of Communist annexation of a capitalist/free territory. That moral victory being US securing Taiwan's semi-autonomous status within the PRC akin to Hong Kong, while being dejure sovereign territory of China.
We should see a secret negotiation to the question of Taiwan between China and US, akin to the 1982 Sino-British Joint Declaration which settled the transfer of sovereignty of HK from UK to PRC. Protection of Taiwan's capitalistic characteristic is probably the model US would demand if Taiwan were to become part of China and if US were to promise not to intervene in such Chinese military annexation efforts.