taiwan missile defense and mainland missile

War over Taiwan might loom if the Taiwanese government declared independence. In that case South Korea and Japan might be involved if US forces in these countries were to intervene. That is a big reason for the governments of these countries to prevent these US forces from acting. In which case the position of the Taiwan government would be hopeless before a shot was fired.

using nukes or any other inhumane weapons against civilians in Taiwan is dumb... we want Taiwan to return as a province, we don't want to become an occupation force.

sure maybe the PRC might get an easy and quick win by threatening to use nukes, but looking back from the future, that move will be seen as nothing short of treason against the Chinese race.

using nukes or any other inhumane weapons against civilians in Taiwan is dumb... we want Taiwan to return as a province, we don't want to become an occupation force.

sure maybe the PRC might get an easy and quick win by threatening to use nukes, but looking back from the future, that move will be seen as nothing short of treason against the Chinese race.

Click to expand...

Clearly you never read my posts. My argument is contingent upon Beijing deciding they want to retake Taiwan NOW, not wait a decade for gradual reunification. I am not making a normative argument that Beijing ought to do this. Should Beijing decide to go for it, a nuclear demonstration/strike is the best option for the CCP. This is a military forum for discussing military scenarios, after all.

When the United States engaged in civil war from 1860-1865, the North obliterated the South. For a century there was tremendous resentment in the southern United States against the North. Yet today, virtually no one would prefer the South to have succeeded in seceding. It took a century, but winning the war through total destruction and humiliation of the South worked. Residents of the southern United States have changed their views.

The same can be said of Taiwan should it fall under Beijing's control again. The first generation of Taiwan's residents, as measured from the start of the war, would be bitter, but after a couple generations growing up in the CCP's education system and media indoctrination, the new generations will feel just like mainlanders. Millions of mainlanders will move to Taiwan. They will inter-marry. The Taiwanese identity as we know it in 2012 will slowly decline to be replaced by a nationalist Chinese identity, just as residents of Guangdong see themselves as Chinese first and not Guangdongers.

Geographer said:

Clearly you never read my posts. My argument is contingent upon Beijing deciding they want to retake Taiwan NOW, not wait a decade for gradual reunification. I am not making a normative argument that Beijing ought to do this. Should Beijing decide to go for it, a nuclear demonstration/strike is the best option for the CCP. This is a military forum for discussing military scenarios, after all.

Click to expand...

Nuking Taiwan would be on the bottom of the CCP's bag of tricks even if they wanted to take taiwan "now"... it seems you're intent on creating a taiwan situation where CCP should use nukes.

When the United States engaged in civil war from 1860-1865, the North obliterated the South. For a century there was tremendous resentment in the southern United States against the North. Yet today, virtually no one would prefer the South to have succeeded in seceding. It took a century, but winning the war through total destruction and humiliation of the South worked. Residents of the southern United States have changed their views.

The same can be said of Taiwan should it fall under Beijing's control again. The first generation of Taiwan's residents, as measured from the start of the war, would be bitter, but after a couple generations growing up in the CCP's education system and media indoctrination, the new generations will feel just like mainlanders. Millions of mainlanders will move to Taiwan. They will inter-marry. The Taiwanese identity as we know it in 2012 will slowly decline to be replaced by a nationalist Chinese identity, just as residents of Guangdong see themselves as Chinese first and not Guangdongers.

Click to expand...

Or maybe those taiwanese on the receiving end will only resent the mainland more and create more trouble down the line. China nuking taiwan would be akin to nuking your own brother and is the absolute last choice if every other option has been exhausted. There is a strong historical and psychological effect to using nukes as well -- does the CCP want to be the second country in the history of the world to use nuclear weapons in conflict, and against a people and island they have claimed are part of a single collective state?

China could launch all ~2000 of its conventional ballistic missiles against taiwan and would likely make a smaller dent in the history books than if PRC used a single nuke against the island.

... Not to mention the response from the world and the political/military fallout that would arise from such a nuclear strike. SK, Japan would likely all nuclear up, Russia, US will reevaluate china's nuclear doctrine and bolster their own forces and the world will become a much more dangerous place... Not to mention the nuclear fallout in whichever taiwanese city china goes to nuke lingering for decades to come.

So if the single goal of the CCP was to annex Taiwan NOW, by all means necessary and without thought at all for the consequences of China and the world then yes a nuke might be the best option. But such a situation will almost certainly never arise and despite what we think, governments are not so short sighted and stupid. This might be a military forum but we should get real as well and rule out the scenarios which will be most unlikely. The scenario as described above I think definitely counts as unlikely.

Geographer said:

When the United States engaged in civil war from 1860-1865, the North obliterated the South. For a century there was tremendous resentment in the southern United States against the North. Yet today, virtually no one would prefer the South to have succeeded in seceding. It took a century, but winning the war through total destruction and humiliation of the South worked. Residents of the southern United States have changed their views.

Click to expand...

Have you been to the deep South in small towns lately? They may be Americans by ethnicity but they still consider themselves as Southerners and confederates in many cases. YES, they're all SEC (Southeastern Conference) college football fans. There is a slow rise in towards the Dixicrats political view here in Texas and all across the southern red states.

Or maybe those taiwanese on the receiving end will only resent the mainland more and create more trouble down the line. China nuking taiwan would be akin to nuking your own brother and is the absolute last choice if every other option has been exhausted. There is a strong historical and psychological effect to using nukes as well -- does the CCP want to be the second country in the history of the world to use nuclear weapons in conflict, and against a people and island they have claimed are part of a single collective state?

Click to expand...

Those residents of Taiwan on the receiving end would die off after a few decades and be replaced by younger generations with no personal experience of the war. Their views would come from what their parents told them and balanced by their upbringing in CCP schools and what they see on TV.

The argument about nuking your own brother is strange because why is nuking your own brother bad but laying siege to the island, rocketing it, and invading, all possibly causing more death and destruction than a nuclear demonstration, OK? How many Chinese "brothers" died during the Chinese Civil War? How many Chinese "brothers" died during the Great Leap Forward? The Cultural Revolution? The CCP had no problem slaughtering Chinese "brothers" for decades, by starvation, execution, or war. Aside from the power struggle at the end of the Cultural Revolution, there was never any mass unrest. How many Chinese today are bitter from the Cultural Revolution? Most of the population was born afterwards.

The fears of a Taiwan insurgency or bitter resentment from being on the losing end of a short nuclear war are 1) not likely to materialize, 2) if it does materialize, not likely to cause problems beyond one generation, 3) just as likely in a conventional war.

does the CCP want to be the second country in the history of the world to use nuclear weapons in conflict, and against a people and island they have claimed are part of a single collective state?

Click to expand...

Does the CCP want to win? Winning quick has numerous advantages as I described above. Winning quick allows China and the world to move on and put the Taiwan independence issue to rest once and for all. If Beijing ever makes the decision to go to war, they need to put those considerations first and not their reputation. A war with Taiwan would be a real struggle Beijing could easily lose. Taiwan isn't one of those patsy foes like Iraq or Libya that America can dismantle using only a small fraction of its arsenal. China will have to use everything its got to win.

Kurt said:

How do you feel about chemical and especially biological terrorism in all major cities on the PRC mainland utilizing breed multi-resistant deadly bacteria (obtainable in the surgery of many hospitals)? Perhaps transfer their plasmids to something deadlier and here you go. Would you be even able to track such an attack?

In the aftermath of the Holocaust there was a revenge plan to poison the few German wells for drinking water in major cities, well, the Israeli agent was a good human and decided against it. Otherwise he could have killed at least one German for every Jew who died in the Holocaust.

I also repeat myself, if you win too fast you make the after-fight the more bloody (call it Taleban-effect).

You create a resistance and for financial reasons combined into a criminal underground with the military know-how and secret service knowledge of the ROC that is at liberty to roam in the PRC China and feels morally entitled to harm the PRC to the degree of destroying it. The triads will be most enlighted to have this capable support that helps them to retake their former positions of power in the mainland. This moral entitlement feeling because of the enormous PRC crime will ease recruiting a lot and decrease any likelyhood of sympathy for the PRC as well as any restraint in violence utilization.

Sorry, but nuking Taiwan is the most brilliant plan to destroy the whole PRC. Military actions do have political consequences and every side, no matter how brutally subjugated, is at liberty to keep fighting with all means available as long as they wish. Such fighting doesn't need to obey any laws of war, know any civilians or innocent children, can utilize the outmost psychological terror and doesn't care about any instruments of surrender.

Simple question: if someone takes over your hometown like this, what would you do?

Click to expand...

The mainland government took over mainland from the government now in charge in taiwan, so this won't be the first time they have to deal with the same issues you are talking about. They did it successfully last time, why you think they will fail this time. If i bet, i would bet the taiwan resistance has no chance, at all.

Of course, I would agree if PRC decides that nuke is an option then most of the debate is thrown out the window, but as most of us also agree that the global political consequences of this would be too high for almost anyone to seriously take. your counting on alot of stuff to fall in place and if some of them don't not only is the PRC screwed but humanity itself might be at stake.

Let's point out the obvious, in a nuclear war, China can not completely destroy the US, even if we assume they manage to land ALL their nukes where they want, however the US can most likely level almost all of China.

The real question we should ask is, and which many people often don't really clearly see, is how much conventional capacity does China really have in the event of attacking Taiwan?

Going back to the original war game article, the assumpion that the PLA would sail 100,000 men in a landing invasion is pretty absurd, such an invasion would take months to prepare at least and can't be done unnoticed, by that point not only Taiwan would be massively mobilized (in which case teh 100,000 men would still end up being badly out numbered) and the US navy would have more than enough time to be in place. Unlike Operation overlord Taiwan also don't have much of a range of places where you can land. espeically a truely large force, would almost surely have to be somwhere in central to central southern Taiwan to have enough of a beach to make such a landing.

The most easy way to take Taiwan is simply if China can somehow make the US concede and withdraw it's support, at that point no shots need to be fired, China could simply use the UN to impose crazy sanction on Taiwan (if the US concede then this is simple) and we'll be forced into talking immediately under very unfavorable terms. But given that Ron Paul probably won't be President anytime soon, this situation is fairly unlikely

Going back to the original war game article, the assumpion that the PLA would sail 100,000 men in a landing invasion is pretty absurd, such an invasion would take months to prepare at least and can't be done unnoticed, by that point not only Taiwan would be massively mobilized (in which case teh 100,000 men would still end up being badly out numbered) and the US navy would have more than enough time to be in place. Unlike Operation overlord Taiwan also don't have much of a range of places where you can land. espeically a truely large force, would almost surely have to be somwhere in central to central southern Taiwan to have enough of a beach to make such a landing.

Click to expand...

I completely agree with this. The probability of a successful amphibious invasion against Taiwan is very low, even without American support. That leaves two options to coerce Taipei's surrender: laying siege to the island or nuclear weapons. Laying siege to Taiwan would be a long, drawn-out nightmare for both Taiwanese civilians and PRC diplomats who would have to rising world anger at the situation. If the Taipei government is determined to hold out, then it would get very ugly for civilians. Plus, the longer it goes on, the likely the U.S. will intervene. American military intervention = Beijing loses, end of discussion. All PRC war-planning must take steps to prevent American military intervention in the conflict.

Of course, I would agree if PRC decides that nuke is an option then most of the debate is thrown out the window, but as most of us also agree that the global political consequences of this would be too high for almost anyone to seriously take. your counting on alot of stuff to fall in place and if some of them don't not only is the PRC screwed but humanity itself might be at stake.

Let's point out the obvious, in a nuclear war, China can not completely destroy the US, even if we assume they manage to land ALL their nukes where they want, however the US can most likely level almost all of China.

Click to expand...

Nobody is talking about Chinese using nuclear weapons against the United States. I'm talking about China looking nuclear weapons against Taiwan to quickly end the war. Just as the atomic bombs on Japan in 1945 were not the end of humanity, or even the end of those cities, Taiwan would quickly recover. Besides, using the weapons on cities may be unnecessary. Beijing could demonstrate on off the coast to shock the leadership into quick surrender. What leader would notsurrender in the face of attack? What leader would accept the legacy of the deaths of tens of thousands of his constituents in order to forestall defeat by a couple days or weeks? Certainly no KMT to DPP leader. They would surrender, PLA troops would land on Taiwanese shores without incident, and the war would be over before it began.

Geographer said:

Nobody is talking about Chinese using nuclear weapons against the United States. I'm talking about China looking nuclear weapons against Taiwan to quickly end the war. Just as the atomic bombs on Japan in 1945 were not the end of humanity, or even the end of those cities, Taiwan would quickly recover. Besides, using the weapons on cities may be unnecessary. Beijing could demonstrate on off the coast to shock the leadership into quick surrender. What leader would notsurrender in the face of attack? What leader would accept the legacy of the deaths of tens of thousands of his constituents in order to forestall defeat by a couple days or weeks? Certainly no KMT to DPP leader. They would surrender, PLA troops would land on Taiwanese shores without incident, and the war would be over before it began.

Click to expand...

The general point is, that any use of nuke would be a world political disastor, I agree that if the PRC really use nuke we probably just surrender, but the world political aftermath would be just as much of a disastor anyway.

For the siege aspect, right now, if the US don't back down, the PLN can't pull off more than a short term one, if the US agree to turn a blind eye, then as I pointed out, you don't even need a siege, just use the UN to impose total sanction on Taiwan, since Taiwan and the secruity counsil without US veto wouldn't be a problem and we're forced to talk almost immediately.