Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Aero_Wing_32

Junior Member
Obama's visit in China would strenghten or soften the tensions between the 2 powers... just about 2 big issues: the Iran case, where China is clearly in the bad side due to oil concerns, and the North Korean case where China plays a strange creepy diplomatic role.
Well, my guess is that USA would react badly and put the arm sales to Taiwan on the table of negociations.
I was optimistic about the F-16 deal to Taiwan, but USA is pressured by Chinese power that is in a great position now after the financial crisis. Whatever happens during the USA/China summit, I also do not think that any warplanes deal would be signed by the end of this year.
I really hope that a plan B could be found for Taiwan, or the ROC air force would be in real danger.
 

unknauthr

Junior Member
For the benefit of anyone who might have missed it, the Rand Corporation recently released an extensive review of the military balance across the Taiwan Straits:
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The Rand study is focused around projected military capabilities in the 2013 time frame, and goes into a great deal of detail regarding projected US, Chinese, and Taiwanese force structures, basing options, and likely strategies. To quote from the report's summary:

Our analysis indicates that China’s ability to suppress or close the ROCAF’s bases could gives the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) an almost overwhelming numerical advantage that—coupled with the rough qualitative parity that now exists between the two sides—could allow China to attain air superiority over Taiwan and the strait. This in turn would permit the PLAAF to pound Taiwan with air-delivered precision-guided munitions (PGMs) in preparation for an invasion attempt or as a coercive bombardment.

Further, the missile threat to the U.S. Air Force (USAF) base at Kadena and the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) base at Iwakuni on Okinawa poses the same kind of danger as that faced by Taiwan’s air bases; combined with the lack of good bases for land-based fighters in the area around Taiwan, the United States is unlikely to be able to compensate for the hundreds of ROCAF fighters burning on their parking ramps, trapped behind cratered runways, or hiding in underground shelters. The danger to both ROCAF and USAF operations in the Taiwan Strait is sufficiently grave that a credible case can be made that the air war for Taiwan could essentially be over before much of the Blue air forces have even fired a shot.​

I also took note of the Rand group's assessment regarding the quality of Chinese fighter and strike aircraft hardware, in relation to their Western counterparts:

The deployment in quantity of much more capable fighters and weapons—FLANKERs and J-10s, AA-12s, PL-12s, PGMs, and LACMs—brings the PLAAF up to major-power standards in terms of the hardware it can line up on the ramp. Only the most recent generation of stealthy U.S. fighters—the F-22 and the still-tocome F-35—can expect to offer meaningful aircraft-on-aircraft technological advantages over what the PLAAF will bring to the fight.​

The report totals 184 pages in length. Although many of these same themes have been espoused elsewhere, the Rand Corporation brings a lot of studious research to the table. Definitely worth a read.
 

Violet Oboe

Junior Member
"A Question of Balance" is indeed an insightful study though any reader should bear in mind that RAND made very conservative assumptions regarding PLA capabilities including rather optimistic key event timelines.

Nevertheless the RAND guys at least are trying to understand how China's massive economic interaction with Taiwan is transforming the regional balance (or much better imbalance!) of power literally day by day. Nice to see that this kind of undeniable fact starts inevitably to sink in...:coffee:
 

Semi-Lobster

Junior Member
Taipei Times said:
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No change to arms policy: US officials

US-TAIWAN TIES: In separate talks, a senior National Security Council official and State Department official both said that Washington’s commitment under the TRA was clear
By William Lowther
STAFF REPORTER , WASHINGTON
Sunday, Nov 08, 2009, Page 1

Two senior members of US President Barack Obama’s administration spelled out aspects of White House policy toward Taiwan on Friday and made it very clear that despite Chinese objections arms sales would continue.

Jeffrey Bader, senior director for East Asian Affairs in the National Security Council, and US Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg were speaking at separate briefings on Obama’s eight-day Asian trip, which starts this week and includes talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤).

Bader, in a keynote address at the Brookings Institution, said that Obama intended to follow the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and to ensure the defense of Taiwan.

He said that the improvement of cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan was one of the world’s “good news stories” because the Taiwan Strait was “the potentially most explosive issue” in US-China relations.

“We think that Presidents Hu and Ma [Ying-jeou (馬英九)] have done an excellent job in reaching out to each other and building a framework that we hope will be durable and that will lead to the resolution of differences,” Bader said.

“Our policy on arms sales to Taiwan has not changed. And that will be evident over the course of our administration,” he said.

Bader said that US policy on Taiwan’s status was based on the three US-China joint communiques and the TRA.

“That framework is unalterable — we are not going to touch it — and there will be nothing we say or do on this upcoming trip that will go in a different direction,” he said.

“There are some areas where it is good not to innovate. And this is an area where we have a tried and true basis for a stable relationship and we are not going to tamper with it,” he said.

Steinberg, speaking soon afterwards at the Center for American Progress, another think tank, said that US commitment to Taiwan was very clear under the TRA and that the Obama administration would continue to respect the act.

“That means we are committed to make appropriate arms sales to meet Taiwan’s security needs. There is no question that Beijing doesn’t like it, and there is no question that it is our responsibility. And not just because of the TRA, although we obviously have a legal obligation under the TRA. But because we actually think it is the right thing to do,” he said.

Steinberg said that US policy toward Taiwan was “appropriate” and that the US’ defense and security support for Taiwan contributed to cross-strait security.

“Each sale [of arms] needs to be evaluated in terms of Taiwan’s specific needs. We take that responsibility very seriously and we will continue to proceed on that basis,” he said.

During his talks in China, Obama will try to find ways to address policy differences without actually changing the policies, Steinberg said.

“If a country is convinced, as we are convinced in respect to arms sales to Taiwan, it should be prepared to have a serious conversation about it and to listen to the PRC’s [People’s Republic of China] concerns about it,” he said.

“We will try to explain why we believe that it is consistent with the interests of both countries. In this case, with arms sales, we believe that it enhances stability by giving Taiwan the confidence to enter into dialogue with the PRC,” he said.

Another difficult issue to be addressed during Obama’s trip was Chinese military modernization, he said.

“We don’t exclude the legitimacy of modernization, but there are aspects of it that concern us and we would like to understand it better and hear a strong case from the Chinese about particular elements of their modernization. That’s the kind of dialogue that needs to take place if we are going to develop a strong relationship of trust and confidence,” Steinberg said.

So the US claims there will be no change in policy, just another drop in the bucket article showing increasingly that the F-16 deal will go ahead.
 

vesicles

Colonel
So the US claims there will be no change in policy, just another drop in the bucket article showing increasingly that the F-16 deal will go ahead.

I have a dumb question. When the US sells weapons to Taiwan, is there some kind of discount that only applies to Taiwan? I would think it would because the US sees it as an obligation, not simply a chance to make some money. Am I correct?
 

Mr T

Senior Member
So the US claims there will be no change in policy, just another drop in the bucket article showing increasingly that the F-16 deal will go ahead.

They can't say that they'll sell it before the paperwork goes through, for obvious reasons. I think the question is not so much if, more when (i.e. before the end of the year or sometime in 2010).

I have a dumb question. When the US sells weapons to Taiwan, is there some kind of discount that only applies to Taiwan? I would think it would because the US sees it as an obligation, not simply a chance to make some money. Am I correct?

You might think so, but I haven't read anything to suggest Taiwan gets a discount. There have been suggestions that Taiwan, if anything, is charged a premium, but I think that's propaganda from those who oppose Taiwan buying arms. Really Taiwan pays what most other countries do.
 

Aero_Wing_32

Junior Member
In the actual political context, I do not think Mr Pres. Obama will allow the F-16 C/D sale to Taiwan ROC. That s my point! Perhaps by the end of 2010. How much money did China lend to the USA during the crisis?
 

vesicles

Colonel
In the actual political context, I do not think Mr Pres. Obama will allow the F-16 C/D sale to Taiwan ROC. That s my point! Perhaps by the end of 2010. How much money did China lend to the USA during the crisis?

I think the sale will go through and China will do little more than verbal objection, like usual. My personal opinion: Taiwan is no longer a priority for China. China's strategic ambition is much more than simply taking back Taiwan. China is using Taiwan as an excuse to expand its military. So whenever China's expanding defense is brought up, the Chinese can say "hey we want Taiwan and this is our own issue and has nothing to do with others". This way, other nations would less likely to be alarmed by China's military expansion. even Taiwan is still a priority, it is a short term one.

Another thing, China could also be using Taiwan as leverage against the US. Like a bargaining, China can say to the US "hey we've made concession with you on the issue of Taiwan and let the arms sale go through. What can you do for us?"

My 2-cent...
 
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