J-10Bs will get eaten alive. J-10C will fight on even footing but why would China be using J-10C when there will be 100 J-20A in the ETC pretty soon?
I actually disagree.
I'll be bold and say that even J-10As and J-11Bs can compete with F-16Vs in a realistic Taiwan contingency combat environment, because the PLA fighters will be supported not only by additional 4.5th and 5th gen fighters, but also extensive high end AEW&C and standoff EW and escort EW, as well as benefit from significant effects of friendly fires directed to ROCAF air bases and supporting infra.
At the system of systems level, the F-16Vs would be:
- outnumbered quantitatively
- qualitatively outmatched by PLA 4.5 and 5th gen fighters
- at a significant if not crippling force multiplier situational awareness and command/control disadvantage
- at a significant if not crippling force multiplier EW disadvantage
- have their own airbases, C4I centers be at significant questionable operational status given weight of PLA strikes/fires
Given the above, in the event that any F-16Vs which happen to be in a position engage J-10As, the F-16Vs would still be at a significant situational awareness and EW disadvantage as well as likely be at risk of the J-10As being able to call on support from friendly 4.5 and 5th gen fighters to if not directly engage the F-16Vs on their behalf, then to at least provide supportive action to enable the J-10As to engage in an advantageous position.
There will basically be no situation where PLAAF fighters would engage ROCAF fighters without massive overwhelming advantage in quantity of fighters, quality of fighters, scale of AEWC force multipliers, scale of EW support.