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Mr T said:

The US fought for Afghanistan for roughly 20 years. Not just gave it support, actively engaged in combat operations against the Taliban. I'm pretty sure any war over Taiwan would be resolved in a lot less than that.

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The biggest difference here is really only that the US fought a much smaller and weaker foe. The resolution of a Taiwan conflict can only be short and smooth if China takes over; if not, it will be protracted until China wins, and there can be long intermissions in between. China has the size and determination to keep this going on forever.

What the Afghanistan situation really showed is 2 things:
1. America lacks determination and resolve. It will abandon things and accept total failure. It will throw allies out the window when it needs to extract itself.
2. America is incompetent. Not only can it fail so miserably, it can miscalculate things so badly that the president can give a speech (based on intelligence briefings of course) on everything that will absolutely not happen and then have literally all of them happen within days.

Mr T said:

The Chinese only response has been flatlining as older mainlanders have died and been replaced with Taiwan-born people.

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As long as they indentify as both Chinese and Taiwanese, they are showing support for China in an environment that is generally anti-China. It's pretty much a 2-1 split, which will have to be addressed through re-education.

Mr T said:

As for Taiwanese-Chinese, a significant response for that would be expected given that only a very small number of Taiwanese are from indigenous groups these days. It would be like suggesting that Chinese-Americans would have little to no stomach to fight the PLA/confront China simply because their identity has a historic link to China.

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You think Chinese-Americans would fight the PLA for the US?? That is a miscalculation that is pretty much the same as believing that the Afghan Security Forces would fight the Taliban for their American trainers, and then they all laid down their arms when their Afghan brothers came to retake the nation. "I'm sorry, brother; I joined them to survive." That's what they said as 300K well-armed security force members gave everything to 75K Taliban without violence. Very few mentally defeated Chinese-Americans seeking approval from a position of submission and subservience would even pretend they would fight the PLA. In my experience, and this was from even my high school days in NYC when I was totally non-political, Chinese kids were talking about Chinese pride, making Chinese student associations. Even without the hostile political environment back then, we Chinese knew we were different; everything that has happened recently only strengthens that notion.

Mr T said:

If China's going to bomb Okinawa to take out USAF assets I'm not sure it's delusional.

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@supersnoop

Now this is mental gymnastics at it's best. The original posting never mentioned that China was ever going to bomb Okinawa FIRST.

It was about the Taiwanese wishful thinking that the Japs will intervene together with the U.S. Bombing or no bombing! That's how delusional they are.

But now we can see how the U.S. is going to engineer a "Japanese intervention" simple by flying off their assets to engage China from Okinawa, thus bringing the Japanese into this. How devious these people are.

Mr T said:

Putting aside whether Taiwanese have put all their eggs in the US' basket, Afghanistan doesn't provide any useful lesson here. China's strategy isn't to cross its fingers that the US won't intervene but that if it does the PLA can hold back the US military until Taiwan has been conquered.

The US fought for Afghanistan for roughly 20 years. Not just gave it support, actively engaged in combat operations against the Taliban. I'm pretty sure any war over Taiwan would be resolved in a lot less than that.



If China's going to bomb Okinawa to take out USAF assets I'm not sure it's delusional.



Are you talking about the Democrats or the DPP? I don't think the former have much to worry about from the Republicans especially on the issue of China/Taiwan, and the latter seem to have got Covid under control again. If there had been a major election this year I think the DPP would be worried, but they'll probably be happy waiting until late next year for the locals.



I'm not sure what survey you're thinking of where "a few years ago" 80% held that view. NCCU's poll is normally regarded as fairly authoratative, I think, and that's never shown a combined 80% result.

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The Chinese only response has been flatlining as older mainlanders have died and been replaced with Taiwan-born people.

As for Taiwanese-Chinese, a significant response for that would be expected given that only a very small number of Taiwanese are from indigenous groups these days. It would be like suggesting that Chinese-Americans would have little to no stomach to fight the PLA/confront China simply because their identity has a historic link to China.

The fact that over 60% of respondents appear to reject any Chinese identity is significant, not least because the rise seems to coincide with Taiwan's democratisation so the chances of the KMT forcing Chinese nationalism down people's throats is limited.

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Let me repeat again:
The issue is not whether Taiwan can or will fight, rather the effect the withdrawal has on the current administration’s credibility.

So you agree that it does, but since there is no election this year, it probably won't have a lasting effect. Fair enough.

Why this question is kind of important...
Conscription referendum is coming which consists of 2 parts
1. Extending the conscription period (was supposed to be abolished with the establishment of the standing National Army of volunteer enlistment, obviously the numbers were not met)
2. Expanding conscription to include women (obviously opposed by women)

Just to point out a couple things. It is delusional when no one is talking about bombing Japan. Please don't drag out that stupid fan made video or something as "proof". Yes that is an option that is always talked about, but also the counter opinion is no need to drag Japan or the US into a battle if they don't fight it. Look at Crimea.

Regarding the 80%, I was mixing up surveys with the one where people want the status quo vs. independence.

Hendrik_2000 said:

A lot of people here believe that the Taiwanese will fight I am not sure that will be the case They were called strawberry army for a reason. Moral is low in basically a draft army. Taiwan has not much success in converting to professional army. The problem is not so much of Taiwanese army but US and Japan intervention. China will prepared for it in due time. That is why you see the expansion of nuclear stock pile, building ABM and missile early warning take time But those are now in place allowing for expansion of nuclear stock pile

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manqiangrexue said:

You think Chinese-Americans would fight the PLA for the US?? That is a miscalculation that is pretty much the same as believing that the Afghan Security Forces would fight the Taliban for their American trainers, and then they all laid down their arms when their Afghan brothers came to retake the nation. "I'm sorry, brother; I joined them to survive." That's what they said as 300,000 security force members gave everything to 75,000 Taliban without violence. Very few mentally defeated Chinese-Americans seeking approval from a position of submission and subservience would even pretend they would fight the PLA. In my experience, and this was from even my high school days in NYC when I was totally non-political, Chinese kids were talking about Chinese pride, making Chinese student associations. Even without the hostile political environment back then, we Chinese knew we were different; everything that has happened recently only strengthens that notion.

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Exactly. Just look at the recent Hong Kong "revolution in our time" at the stand off at the university, the die hards were saying the only way they are going to vacate the university is in a box! Lol so much bravado. And we all know what happened.

The same will be in Taiwan, not because they are no brave people there. It just people are more pragmatic. They know a loosing side when they see one. So why carry on fighting for the loosing side. Just like the Afghanis 300,000 strong armed forces.

But then our friend here has always had an active imagination, so much so sometimes he is unable to tell the real world from the world he likes to live in.

@manqiangrexue

I don't think he's Chinese by the way.

Gatekeeper said:

The same will be in Taiwan, not because they are no brace people there. It just people are more pragmatic. They know a loosing side when they see one. So why carry on fighting for the loosing side. Just like the Afghanis 300,000 strong armed forces.

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I think these situations are different. The Taiwan situation will be as you said, and a mirror of the Hong Kong situation (although the Taiwanese strike me as far less violent and terrorist-like) but in Afghanistan, 300K well-armed, well-trained soldiers could hold off, and likely even defeat the 75K Taliban if they were resolved to fight. But they don't want to. They felt ashamed of themselves for helping a foreign force conquer their nation and they were willing and eager to redeem themselves, first by throwing down their arms, and then by taking them back up as Taliban. That is the only way and reason that the Taliban could have taken back the entirety of Afghanistan in such a short period of time. There was no fighting; they were basically willingly surrendered to (and vehemently apologized to) by welcoming arms everywhere they went.

Gatekeeper said:

@manqiangrexue

I don't think he's Chinese by the way.

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I never thought he was. What made you think I thought that way?

manqiangrexue said:

I think these situations are different. The Taiwan situation will be as you said, and a mirror of the Hong Kong situation (although the Taiwanese strike me as far less violent and terrorist-like) but in Afghanistan, 300K well-armed, well-trained soldiers could hold off the 75K Taliban. But they don't want to. They felt ashamed of themselves for helping a foreign force conquer their nation and they were willing and eager to redeem themselves, first by throwing down their arms, and then by taking them back up as Taliban. That is the only way and reason that the Taliban could have taken back the entirety of Afghanistan in such a short period of time. There was no fighting; they were basically willingly surrendered to (and vehemently apologized to) everywhere they went.

I never thought he was. What made you think I thought that way?

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Agree with much of what you said. But I hear now they didn't think there were actually 300k soldiers, it's more like a sixth of that 50k. Because most of these were "ghost" soldiers to line the pockets of their commanders.

Also i tbought you thought he was Chinese by the way you write. I'm sorry I believe I got it wrong.

The ironic thing is that die hard troops of the ROC army are probably those who tend to identify with their Chinese roots more. Most of the leadership for the ROC army is still those who came from families that move to Taiwan in the post 1949 era. The irony is those who probably fight are those who are opposed to independence. In a way, they're stuck in a strange catch 22. They don't want to support independence because they don't want a Republic of Taiwan at all and they don't want to join the PRC either probably. Most of those people want the ROC to still remain. Watch during the conflict, the ROC army will be paralyzed and have a hard time knowing what to do. In a way, they're caught in a struggle where their ideology doesn't really matter much. It is mainly a struggle between PRC unificationists and Taiwanese secessionists

siegecrossbow said:

View attachment 76183

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Biden said that Taliban has no chance of beating the well trained and equipped Afghan National Army either so I don’t think General Clarke is the best authority here…

supersnoop said:

Let me repeat again:
The issue is not whether Taiwan can or will fight, rather the effect the withdrawal has on the current administration’s credibility.

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I know what you're saying, I just don't agree.

Point A

Biden didn't start the withdrawal, it was begun by Trump. His negotiations with the Taliban also undermined the Afghanistan government and emboldened the Taliban.

If Biden had reversed the withdrawal it would have stopped the Taliban temporarily, but it would only have cost the US even more money and resources.

Point B

The credibility hit is relevant only towards current US allies where they're not fulfilling their responsibilities. The US had Kabul's back for 20 years despite them refusing or being unable to stop corruption and properly pay, feed and equip their military/police. How many US personnel died or were wounded in Afghanistan - like 2,000 and 20,000 respectively, maybe more?

No country was going to give Afghanistan a blank cheque forever.

supersnoop said:

Conscription referendum is coming which consists of 2 parts
1. Extending the conscription period (was supposed to be abolished with the establishment of the standing National Army of volunteer enlistment, obviously the numbers were not met)
2. Expanding conscription to include women (obviously opposed by women)

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There's no "conscription referendum" planned to my knowledge at least this year. Points 1 and 2 are under "consideration" by the Taiwanese government, but they're not policy.

supersnoop said:

Just to point out a couple things. It is delusional when no one is talking about bombing Japan. Please don't drag out that stupid fan made video or something as "proof".

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I'm not sure what "proof" I could offer that China would attack Okinawa in event of an invasion of Taiwan. Beijing isn't going to allow its war plans to be leaked.

There is an argument that it would be smart to not fire first to see if the US/Japan could be convinced to not intervene. However, if China allows bases in Okinawa, Guam and elsewhere to remain active and there is direct foreign intervention then obviously that's a missed opportunity.

supersnoop said:

Look at Crimea.

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Slightly different, though. The Russians already had substantial forces in Crimea and the Ukrainians weren't even being paid properly. Russia had control of Crimea before anyone knew what was going on. If China starts preparing for an invasion it's going to be fairly obvious, even if it pretends it's just a "normal exercise".

siegecrossbow said:

Biden said that Taliban has no chance of beating the well trained and equipped Afghan National Army either so I don’t think General Clarke is the best authority here…

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Yeah, but Clarke was making a factual statement, whilst Biden was making an estimation about another country. The US did stay 20 years in Afghanistan, longer than anyone expected. I'm not expecting you to remember that far back, but when the forum started were most people here expecting America to last that long?