It has caused some doubt among themselves and some of them are thinking about their future.
Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter Gollevainen
- Start date
This is not a matter of the actual war fighting issue. Rather my point is the current administration has made it a point to put all the eggs in the “American Intervention” basket. Even more delusional is the “Japanese Intervention” basket it has been weaving. Thus the reference to the 1450 army which is the DPP equivalent to “wumao”.
I guess it’s not really military in this case, but political situation. We also have to remember that there have been a number of US-DPP stunts pulled in the past couple years, so the issue is what stomach is left for them after the recent rash of COVID deaths that plunged the administration’s approval ratings?
Also wouldn’t rely too much on those surveys, just a few years ago, 80% identified as Taiwanese-Chinese or Chinese only, always dependent of the current state of affairs and party in power.
I guess it’s not really military in this case, but political situation. We also have to remember that there have been a number of US-DPP stunts pulled in the past couple years, so the issue is what stomach is left for them after the recent rash of COVID deaths that plunged the administration’s approval ratings?
Also wouldn’t rely too much on those surveys, just a few years ago, 80% identified as Taiwanese-Chinese or Chinese only, always dependent of the current state of affairs and party in power.
One more point I wanted to add (you pushed my red button with being up those surveys, I really hate them…)
The Taiwan/Chinese identity thing is really regional as well. Don’t forget that Taiwan island is just a region of the ROC itself, there is also Kinmen and Matsu. These outlying islands have pinned their livelihoods on mainland links and certainly do not consider themselves “Taiwanese” since they do not live on Taiwan island. If you want to talk about a war scenario, would the DPP abandon these islands? If they did, how can an administration claim to represent the people if they “leave them to the wolves”?
Furthermore Taipei city itself has never been strong on Taiwanese identity.
The Taiwan/Chinese identity thing is really regional as well. Don’t forget that Taiwan island is just a region of the ROC itself, there is also Kinmen and Matsu. These outlying islands have pinned their livelihoods on mainland links and certainly do not consider themselves “Taiwanese” since they do not live on Taiwan island. If you want to talk about a war scenario, would the DPP abandon these islands? If they did, how can an administration claim to represent the people if they “leave them to the wolves”?
Furthermore Taipei city itself has never been strong on Taiwanese identity.
@supersnoop
Come on @supersnoop. It's pointless, when we are debating, there should be something as facts and truth. It's difficult to have a debate when people distort facts. The fact of the matter is that both Soviets and U.S. together with her unwilling allies went into Afghanistan. With the former spending almost a decade there, whereas the later spending two decades there. These are facts.
But somehow, one is called invasion whilst the other is called intervention. See the difference? I quote below:
"That was followed by the Soviet invasion."
"The two stalemated until 9-11 when the Taliban turned down the demand for OBL and to close the AQ training camps. Which lead to the US intervention."
Judging by the choice of words, we know what and who the bad guys going to be. Never mind that the Soviets were invited in by then Afghanistan government, as a treaty ally if the Soviets (notice everytime when U.S. "intervenes", it is because it is a treaty ally)! whereas this intervention was neither a treaty ally or invited!
"Next in polling a majority of the population identified as Taiwanese not Chinese or both. This means that a mainland force would be viewed as an invader."
It is funny they always polls whennit suits them. They never mention polls when it doesnt. I wonder how it's that Catalan poll is going? Oh I forgot it is illegal, because Spain didn't sanction it. Yet when it come to Taiwan, China is not allowed to have any say. Hyprocracy much?
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
It is different and the main difference is that the people in Taiwan are pragmatic and they complain but at the end of the day, they don't have the mentality to kill themselves in terrorist attacks. They will adapt to the new system to thrive and be wealthy. They do not want to die in a blaze of glory.
The polling also says that most would refuse to fight.
The biggest and strongest third party regional state is Russia and we all know who they support. Voicing means nothing; the US is all about voicing. Biden just voiced his strong confidence that the Taliban would not take over Afghanistan (now named the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan) and that there are no parallels whatsoever to the US retreat from Vietnam with helicopters whisking people off from the US embassy... moments before a chopper arrived to whisk rescue people away from the US embassy. Did you see that? Hilarious LOL America also once voiced that it would never tolerate a nuclear China or an independent Philippines. American voicing is just a joke. America is so consumed with fear-induced hatred of China that if the Chinese said they liked ice cream the US would voice opposition against it and support for ice cream lives and rights. As for the "other states," nobody would get their hands dirty unless the US has already guaranteed the victory. Military balance is what matters and China is all about building and developing.
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Cope.
America has no credibility. You're just like your former puppet Ashraf Ghani, talking all kinds of tough right before he vanished like a fart in the wind. I can't even say your silly rhetoric sounds even vaguely threatening - if the PLA launched an invasion tomorrow all you would be able to muster is "the world is watching."
Way ahead of ya; DPP and KMT types, really any taiwanese who can afford it has been buying property in america, canada or australia in anticipation of being exiled once reunification happens.
Mr T
Senior Member
Putting aside whether Taiwanese have put all their eggs in the US' basket, Afghanistan doesn't provide any useful lesson here. China's strategy isn't to cross its fingers that the US won't intervene but that if it does the PLA can hold back the US military until Taiwan has been conquered.
The US fought for Afghanistan for roughly 20 years. Not just gave it support, actively engaged in combat operations against the Taliban. I'm pretty sure any war over Taiwan would be resolved in a lot less than that.
If China's going to bomb Okinawa to take out USAF assets I'm not sure it's delusional.
Are you talking about the Democrats or the DPP? I don't think the former have much to worry about from the Republicans especially on the issue of China/Taiwan, and the latter seem to have got Covid under control again. If there had been a major election this year I think the DPP would be worried, but they'll probably be happy waiting until late next year for the locals.
I'm not sure what survey you're thinking of where "a few years ago" 80% held that view. is normally regarded as fairly authoratative, I think, and that's never shown a combined 80% result.
The Chinese only response has been flatlining as older mainlanders have died and been replaced with Taiwan-born people.
As for Taiwanese-Chinese, a significant response for that would be expected given that only a very small number of Taiwanese are from indigenous groups these days. It would be like suggesting that Chinese-Americans would have little to no stomach to fight the PLA/confront China simply because their identity has a historic link to China.
The fact that over 60% of respondents appear to reject any Chinese identity is significant, not least because the rise seems to coincide with Taiwan's democratisation so the chances of the KMT forcing Chinese nationalism down people's throats is limited. The green line was going up even when Ma was president and dipped slightly during Tsai's first term.
Mr T
Senior Member
Putting aside whether Taiwanese have put all their eggs in the US' basket, Afghanistan doesn't provide any useful lesson here. China's strategy isn't to cross its fingers that the US won't intervene but that if it does the PLA can hold back the US military until Taiwan has been conquered.
The US fought for Afghanistan for roughly 20 years. Not just gave it support, actively engaged in combat operations against the Taliban. I'm pretty sure any war over Taiwan would be resolved in a lot less than that.
If China's going to bomb Okinawa to take out USAF assets I'm not sure it's delusional.
Are you talking about the Democrats or the DPP? I don't think the former have much to worry about from the Republicans especially on the issue of China/Taiwan, and the latter seem to have got Covid under control again. If there had been a major election this year I think the DPP would be worried, but they'll probably be happy waiting until late next year for the locals.
I'm not sure what survey you're thinking of where "a few years ago" 80% held that view. NCCU's poll is normally regarded as fairly authoratative, I think, and that's never shown a combined 80% result.
The Chinese only response has been flatlining as older mainlanders have died and been replaced with Taiwan-born people.
As for Taiwanese-Chinese, a significant response for that would be expected given that only a very small number of Taiwanese are from indigenous groups these days. It would be like suggesting that Chinese-Americans would have little to no stomach to fight the PLA/confront China simply because their identity has a historic link to China.
The fact that over 60% of respondents appear to reject any Chinese identity is significant, not least because the rise seems to coincide with Taiwan's democratisation so the chances of the KMT forcing Chinese nationalism down people's throats is limited.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
A lot of people here believe that the Taiwanese will fight I am not sure that will be the case They were called strawberry army for a reason. Moral is low in basically a draft army. Taiwan has not much success in converting to professional army. The problem is not so much of Taiwanese army but US and Japan intervention. China will prepared for it in due time. That is why you see the expansion of nuclear stock pile, building ABM and missile early warning take time But those are now in place allowing for expansion of nuclear stock pile
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