No sane dog wants to be wagged by the tail.
Especially is wag means big war.
Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter Gollevainen
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Especially is wag means big war.
There are a lot of wrong things in this post. In both Armenia and Syria campaigns, the drone side dismantled the opposing force fast. Russia saved Syria. It also saved Armenia to a much smaller extend too (Azerbaijan gained what it wanted and even more). In both cases we saw drones dismantling the opposing force who hadn't thought of such a threat. The Armenia-Azerbaijan case is even more significant because the countries were much closer to each other in capability compared to our case. In both wars, we had the droned side getting overwhelmed by numerous relatively cheap MALE UAVs after their air assets had been suppressed. Taiwan's air force is outdated and has low readiness. They only have two long range air defense brigades. I see a drone blitz opportunity here. Buying SPGs is among the worst things you can do if you have the deficiencies of Taiwan. Even buying bombers would be a better choice. At least they could use them to mine the strait from stand-off ranges.
Oh so. Taiwan is the tail after all then. Go figures. But this tail still assumes the dog will come and save the day. Which is your assertion.
All I'm saying is the dog might not want to save the tail. Which is the whole reason for the strategic ambiguity. Because if the dog really want ro send a message, then just come out and say so. (And this has got nothing to do with dog and tail). It's purely the dogs choice. The reason the dog didn't choose this is because the dog knows (unlike you) it might not be the top dog in this fight.
After all, this "top" dog has been barking at anyone wishing to listen that they are coming from the "position of strength" so much strength that they are scared to committ itself in this dog and pony show.
Absolutely agree. A kinetic contest directly between US and China is like a bare knuckle match between the reigning heavy weight champion and a unknown challenger.
While the bets are all in favor of the champ, you just don't know how it would go down. You might be biggest meanest looking dude, but shit have a way of turning South unexpectedly.
In so many ways, the Champ has everything to lose, his belt, his endorsements, future earning potential.....
While in contrast the challenger has everything to gain.
It actually get worse than that. The fight is on the challengers block, right next to his house, while the Champ's gym is miles away. Hence, the challenger can risk everything in the fight, while the champ has to worry about his other markets and future contracts/bouts. Even if the challenger loses, he can keep coming back, year after year.
No, the champ is the far more hesitant going in to this bare knuckle match.
But, wait, there is more......
The more the champ hesitates, the more the challenger gains on him, packing on muscles and skill day by day.......
(BTW, I know Kimbo is not a champ, but he certainly look big and mean going in, and was by far favored).
Here's a great take from the Global times.
US arms sales sound death knell for Taiwan authorities: Global Times editorial
By Global TimesPublished: Aug 05, 2021 09:13 PM
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
The Pentagon said on Wednesday that the US State Department approved the potential sale of 40 155mm M109A6 Medium Self-Propelled Howitzer artillery systems to the island of Taiwan in a deal worth up to $750 million, according to Reuters. It was the first major arms sale announced since US President Joe Biden took office. Furthermore, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said on Tuesday that Japan was hoping to deploy anti-aircraft and anti-ship missile units to Ishigaki - just 185 miles from Taiwan, Newsweek reported. Japanese media said such deployment involves the deterrence of Japan's Self-defense Forces to help defend Taiwan.
The M109A6 self-propelled howitzer system is said to be second only to the US military's latest M109A7 system, with a range of 24 to 40 kilometers and a launch preparation time of about one minute. The armed forces in the island of Taiwan hope that the addition of these self-propelled howitzers will increase their anti-landing capabilities and deter the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
We'd like to say that this is such a naïve idea. The Taiwan authorities have fallen into a narrow mindset, and so has the vision of the armed forces in Taiwan. If an all-out war breaks out across the Taiwan Straits, the PLA will definitely carry out a saturation attack on Taiwan's military targets. Chen Shui-bian, former regional leader of Taiwan, said in 2007 that the Chinese mainland had over 1,000 ballistic missiles aimed at the island. Now the PLA must be able to mobilize more and stronger forces for the first round of strikes. At that time, none of the targets in Taiwan, ranging from airports to missile and artillery positions, to the military command center, can survive. And Taiwan's transportation will immediately be disrupted.
Will there be any scope for the island to exploit the capabilities of its self-propelled howitzers? There's only limited land facing the Chinese mainland on which Taiwan's self-propelled howitzers can move around. The PLA is clearly aware of the location of every house or tree there. Against this backdrop, can self-propelled howitzers be maneuvered under the PLA's nose? Even if some of the self-propelled howitzers survived, would the terrified soldiers in Taiwan be able to drive or aim?
The armed forces in Taiwan should be clear that once a war breaks out, the only way to survive is to surrender, and all resistance is pointless. It is believed that many soldiers in Taiwan see joining the military as a career to earn a living and they gamble they will not encounter a war. Once a war takes place, an overwhelming saturation attack from the Chinese mainland will instantly destroy the morale of the entire armed forces of Taiwan, and all the weapons and equipment sold by the US to Taiwan will either become the spoils of the PLA, or be destroyed by the PLA immediately.
Taiwan's security can only be achieved through political means. That is to accept the one-China principle, draw a clear line from the US strategy to contain the Chinese mainland, actively discuss ways of peaceful reunification with the mainland and follow the right path of "one country, two systems." Using force to resist reunification or seek secessionism is a dead end for the Taiwan authorities. Taiwan's military expenditure is only enough for some powder-puff actions facing the PLA. And to deal with the PLA, Taiwan may have to use all of its GDP to buy arms.
Speaking of Japan's military construction on the islands close to Taiwan to deter the situation in Taiwan, it is equivalent to being a cannon fodder of the US to contain China's rise. Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits and a missile targeting the PLA is launched from Japanese islands, those islands will immediately suffer from saturation attacks. China's DF-17 hypersonic missile is very suitable for this task.
If the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force dares to gamble further, the PLA will eliminate it, attack its military bases and vent Chinese people's anger since the First Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895. China's DF-21D and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles will be a clear message to Japanese rightists that the times have turned.
Chinese people love peace. China has already become the world's largest trading country, and China's super industrial production capacity is benefiting all mankind. For example, the global fight against the COVID-19 pandemic has relied on the great ability of China's industry to concentrate its production of key materials. The US and Japan should not force China to use such power to produce Dongfeng ballistic missiles, which can completely destroy their fleet and Asia-Pacific military base. For China, producing these ballistic missiles is no more difficult than producing ventilators.
Therefore, the US and Japan need to restrain their strategic arrogance toward China and refrain from making provocative gestures to China to avoid fatal misjudgments.
China is Japan's largest trading partner. There are many Japanese-made cars on the streets of China, and many Japanese products are widely welcome by Chinese consumers. Japan should focus on doing business with China and drop the illusion of confronting 1.4 billion Chinese people.
US arms sales sound death knell for Taiwan authorities: Global Times editorial
By Global TimesPublished: Aug 05, 2021 09:13 PM
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
The Pentagon said on Wednesday that the US State Department approved the potential sale of 40 155mm M109A6 Medium Self-Propelled Howitzer artillery systems to the island of Taiwan in a deal worth up to $750 million, according to Reuters. It was the first major arms sale announced since US President Joe Biden took office. Furthermore, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said on Tuesday that Japan was hoping to deploy anti-aircraft and anti-ship missile units to Ishigaki - just 185 miles from Taiwan, Newsweek reported. Japanese media said such deployment involves the deterrence of Japan's Self-defense Forces to help defend Taiwan.
The M109A6 self-propelled howitzer system is said to be second only to the US military's latest M109A7 system, with a range of 24 to 40 kilometers and a launch preparation time of about one minute. The armed forces in the island of Taiwan hope that the addition of these self-propelled howitzers will increase their anti-landing capabilities and deter the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
We'd like to say that this is such a naïve idea. The Taiwan authorities have fallen into a narrow mindset, and so has the vision of the armed forces in Taiwan. If an all-out war breaks out across the Taiwan Straits, the PLA will definitely carry out a saturation attack on Taiwan's military targets. Chen Shui-bian, former regional leader of Taiwan, said in 2007 that the Chinese mainland had over 1,000 ballistic missiles aimed at the island. Now the PLA must be able to mobilize more and stronger forces for the first round of strikes. At that time, none of the targets in Taiwan, ranging from airports to missile and artillery positions, to the military command center, can survive. And Taiwan's transportation will immediately be disrupted.
Will there be any scope for the island to exploit the capabilities of its self-propelled howitzers? There's only limited land facing the Chinese mainland on which Taiwan's self-propelled howitzers can move around. The PLA is clearly aware of the location of every house or tree there. Against this backdrop, can self-propelled howitzers be maneuvered under the PLA's nose? Even if some of the self-propelled howitzers survived, would the terrified soldiers in Taiwan be able to drive or aim?
The armed forces in Taiwan should be clear that once a war breaks out, the only way to survive is to surrender, and all resistance is pointless. It is believed that many soldiers in Taiwan see joining the military as a career to earn a living and they gamble they will not encounter a war. Once a war takes place, an overwhelming saturation attack from the Chinese mainland will instantly destroy the morale of the entire armed forces of Taiwan, and all the weapons and equipment sold by the US to Taiwan will either become the spoils of the PLA, or be destroyed by the PLA immediately.
Taiwan's security can only be achieved through political means. That is to accept the one-China principle, draw a clear line from the US strategy to contain the Chinese mainland, actively discuss ways of peaceful reunification with the mainland and follow the right path of "one country, two systems." Using force to resist reunification or seek secessionism is a dead end for the Taiwan authorities. Taiwan's military expenditure is only enough for some powder-puff actions facing the PLA. And to deal with the PLA, Taiwan may have to use all of its GDP to buy arms.
Speaking of Japan's military construction on the islands close to Taiwan to deter the situation in Taiwan, it is equivalent to being a cannon fodder of the US to contain China's rise. Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits and a missile targeting the PLA is launched from Japanese islands, those islands will immediately suffer from saturation attacks. China's DF-17 hypersonic missile is very suitable for this task.
If the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force dares to gamble further, the PLA will eliminate it, attack its military bases and vent Chinese people's anger since the First Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895. China's DF-21D and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles will be a clear message to Japanese rightists that the times have turned.
Chinese people love peace. China has already become the world's largest trading country, and China's super industrial production capacity is benefiting all mankind. For example, the global fight against the COVID-19 pandemic has relied on the great ability of China's industry to concentrate its production of key materials. The US and Japan should not force China to use such power to produce Dongfeng ballistic missiles, which can completely destroy their fleet and Asia-Pacific military base. For China, producing these ballistic missiles is no more difficult than producing ventilators.
Therefore, the US and Japan need to restrain their strategic arrogance toward China and refrain from making provocative gestures to China to avoid fatal misjudgments.
China is Japan's largest trading partner. There are many Japanese-made cars on the streets of China, and many Japanese products are widely welcome by Chinese consumers. Japan should focus on doing business with China and drop the illusion of confronting 1.4 billion Chinese people.
It seems that every time the US sells Taiwan some arms, we'll go through the same ordeal of debating the usefulness/uselessness of these weapons or equipment. We would mostly recycle the same arguments and come to the same conclusion. That is Taiwan doesn't have a chance even with these arms and in the end Taiwan's fate would still depend upon the "third-party intervention." That is certainly true, since most of PLA's war preparation efforts on Taiwan over the last two decades have centered around defeating the third-party invention, i.e. A2/AD, starting from the ASBM's. Still these arms sales usually instigate quite some indignation and reaction from Chinese, understandably, such that even Global Times has to come out with some commentary this time.
Now the well-known online news media guancha.cn also promptly comes out with some comments of their own, by its military news editor. The video comments cover some interesting information regarding China's landing tactics and Taiwan's defending strategy. It appears that Taiwan's current anti-landing strategy is some half-hearted landing beach defense, with fresh conscripts serving as basically cannon folder while the more experienced troops would hide behind in urban areas or mountain caves, for later street fights or guerrilla warfare I suppose. I've heard about this strategy from some retired ROC military personnel too, so it appears to have some truth in it.
The recent US arms sales, put together, suggest the US tries to equip the ROC Army, one division at a time, to model after the US Army infantry division. These include 40 M109A6 SPG's, 20 M992A2 FAASV's, 1 AFATDS, 108 M1A2's, 50 Stingers and 30 AH-64E's.
The video is in Chinese, unfortunately.
Now the well-known online news media guancha.cn also promptly comes out with some comments of their own, by its military news editor. The video comments cover some interesting information regarding China's landing tactics and Taiwan's defending strategy. It appears that Taiwan's current anti-landing strategy is some half-hearted landing beach defense, with fresh conscripts serving as basically cannon folder while the more experienced troops would hide behind in urban areas or mountain caves, for later street fights or guerrilla warfare I suppose. I've heard about this strategy from some retired ROC military personnel too, so it appears to have some truth in it.
The recent US arms sales, put together, suggest the US tries to equip the ROC Army, one division at a time, to model after the US Army infantry division. These include 40 M109A6 SPG's, 20 M992A2 FAASV's, 1 AFATDS, 108 M1A2's, 50 Stingers and 30 AH-64E's.
The video is in Chinese, unfortunately.
I don’t think SPG is the worst purchase. The question (as always) is whether the price was “good”. History has shown that the price charged is usually pretty awful.
Artillery might need to adjust fire to maximize effectiveness, but assuming a defensive position, ROCA should have a pretty decent idea of the best positions and solutions to maximize effect.
You could “shoot and scoot” still to avoid counter battery fire by moving to another predetermined location.
Even though A6 is old and M109 has poor range, Both of these are less critical for the Taiwan defensive situation.
Here’s something that should be critiqued:
Have some pride MOD. This is way too much grovelling for a military!
Artillery might need to adjust fire to maximize effectiveness, but assuming a defensive position, ROCA should have a pretty decent idea of the best positions and solutions to maximize effect.
You could “shoot and scoot” still to avoid counter battery fire by moving to another predetermined location.
Even though A6 is old and M109 has poor range, Both of these are less critical for the Taiwan defensive situation.
Here’s something that should be critiqued:
Have some pride MOD. This is way too much grovelling for a military!
Howitzer is a better purchase than M1 Abrams.
