Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

weig2000

Captain
@weig2000, if people like this are praising an article you post, you might want to take a moment to think about whether that article is worth posting.

Short answer is yes, if an article is relevant, interesting and worth discussing. I may or may not agree with some points or conclusion of it. I actually read a lot of such articles and reports. Some of them are waste of time, some are not.

We don't need to make SDF an echo chamber, and that's what we would have left if you dismiss everything you don't agree to. We can learn from different or even opposing ideas, sometimes.
 

weig2000

Captain
Depends what you mean by "around". I think any change in views are more an acknowledgment that it would be suicide to do anything other than keep them stationed far off Taiwan's east coast. The US would need to use its navy as part of a multi-force response, and sending the navy in without carrier air support would be like fighting with one arm tied behind your back. There's only so much that land-based aircraft could do.

Carriers are still necessary and big part of the US response to crisis anywhere in the world, including Taiwan. But the new reality, or the balance of power across and around Taiwan (these would include the forward-deployed US forces) is such that 1) the number of needed CBGs would not arrive in time before the conflict is largely over, and 2) even if the carriers arrive soon enough, they would have to stay far away from around Taiwan to be safe, therefore reducing their effectiveness.

By the way, the new Pentagon defense strategy is called
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(JADC2).
 

Mr T

Senior Member
1) the number of needed CBGs would not arrive in time before the conflict is largely over

That is a real possibility. The key for the US and Taiwan will be having sufficient surveillance to know when China's military build-up is starting so they have time to move assets around.

Alternatively if China can simply force Taiwan's surrender in a few days by a mass bombardment (which will inevitably have significant civilian casulaties), it wouldn't make a difference.

2) even if the carriers arrive soon enough, they would have to stay far away from around Taiwan to be safe, therefore reducing their effectiveness.

Yup, that's absolutely what I was getting at.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
That is true. Although if China's strategy was by choice or necessity a stand-off one, it would give the US time to organise a response to convince China to stand down, whether by showing sufficient resolve and force (Beijing then tries to claim it was just proving a point to dissuade UDI), or by breaking a blockade and resupplying Taiwan.

There are some interesting power political dimensions at play in this game of chicken.

If such a crisis ever did emerge (specifically most likely it would be a Taiwan move to de jure independence), it would essentially be a function of each side's perception of resolve and power of each other.


The goal of each side would be to dissaude the other from acting.

For China it would essentially be to deter the US from getting militarily involved, for the US it would essentially be to try and deter China from military responding to Taiwan's move to de jure independence.
It goes without saying that if both actions by China and the US occur, (US military involvement and China militarily responding) the end result is a major westpac conflict between two nuclear armed powers.


... At this stage I'm still not sure where the fulcrum of power lies. Everyone is aware of the priorities each side sees in Taiwan, but the degree of sacrifice that each side is willing to lay down for Taiwan is still a question.

I am of the belief that the nuclear factor may be the most significant -- specifically, the size and the survivability of the Chinese nuclear deterrent might cause China to more credibly be able to threaten the US with MAD if not near MAD with the challenge of asking if the US wishes to make Taiwan a modern equivalent to berlin as a tripwire for nuclear annihilation, of course with the clear understanding that Taiwan itself is important enough for China to be willing to consign itself to nuclear apocalypse and to drag as much of the US (and the rest of the world) with it as possible, if things come to it.


In geopolitical terms, the goal would be to make clear to the US and the world that Taiwan ultimately is not a territory that is China is trifling with but something that they consider to be willing to sacrifice the entire world over if necessary, in the same way that the US would sacrifice the entire world if it was under attack in an equivalent manner.

Such a nuclear policy declaration of course would be made in a manner that "adjusts" but doesn't forbade the NFU policy, and would likely be made with the implication that attacks on key strategic facilities would be considered an attack against China's nuclear deterrent. I imagine such a declaration would only ever be made on the eve of perceived inevitable military conflict as well.



Of course, direct US military involvement might not necessarily be the only response -- the purpose of US power projection is to control SLOCs and maritime chokepoints, so it isn't impossible that the US chooses to avoid direct conflict and instead seek to commit a "distant water blockade" on China instead, essentially daring China to break the blockade and making conflict further away from the Chinese mainland.
Such a possibility of course will sought to be mitigated by China seeking to build up a powerful navy and air force to be able to project power as well and either seek to protect its own shipping and in turn test US resolve in those areas of blockade, as well as to further integrate itself with the world economy so that if a blockade on China does occur those other trading partners will vocally advocate for continued freedom of navigation of trade and commerce and energy and isolate the US and its partners, and of course eurasian economic and energy integration to complicate the US ability to dominate sea lanes.


Over the last few years this has basically been the major fulcrums and plays that I see the US and China essentially making.


Of course, unforeseen revolutions in technology might change each side's available options, but they're called unforeseen for a reason.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
It's quite the shock to see US calling for asymmetrical warfare against China, perhaps they could benefit from a few copies of Selected Works of Mao, you know to brush up on concepts like People's War and Surrounding the Cities from the Countryside.

Alas there were trends of this prior to this development. See here for example:
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Ultimately USAF's plan to disperse to little bases across the Western Pacific in times of war has the same root as this recent interest in asymmetric warfare around Taiwan - PLA's strength in China's AD/A2 zone is such that it's no longer possible to engage them frontally and win. Facing a (locally) stronger opponent asymmetric warfare is one way to keep on fighting.

But that's just putting a patch over the problem and not really thinking about the problem from a root level. China somehow achieved superiority of force in the AD/A2 zone and US couldn't do anything about it. Is there any reason to think this trend will discontinue and China wouldn't continue to push the AD/A2 area further and further out from the coast, and also continue to accumulate force to give them supremacy within the zone to eventually make even asymmetrical warfare infeasible.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
I think a decade ago the US might have had a chance against China but not now.
China's military has been sufficiently modernized to the degree that a nuclear exchange would be suicidal.
The US already had reservations on a conventional war in mainland China as it was.

At best the US would incentivize it as a way to sacrifice Taiwan for the excuse of blockading China in return. Then hope that in a decade or two the Chinese economy would be weak enough it would be irrelevant. But even that seems unlikely with the PLAN naval buildup strategy. Comparisons with the Berlin crisis are not totally unfounded but in this case it is mainland China which seems to attract the Taiwanese talent rather than the other way around.

The upgraded SM Block IIA might make someone in the US think they could survive a Chinese nuclear exchange in, say, 5 years from now. But I think that is most unlikely because, for one, it won't be easy for the US to cover the northern approaches and I think any Chinese nuclear weapon strike would likely go over the pole rather than along the Pacific. It would require upgrading enough Burke class destroyers to use the missile and integrate them in an air defense bubble. Also, by that time China could have advanced upper stages which would allow for more complex approaches to the CONUS including from the south of it where the least amount of defenses are stationed.
 
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localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
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Taiwan counts 15 lives lost in 2020 and rising military cost amid escalating tension with China
  • Black Hawk helicopter crash which claimed high-profile Taiwan officer was the first of five fatal military incidents
  • By November Taiwan’s navy had sent 1,223 ships to meet challenges by Chinese naval vessels, an increase of nearly 50 per cent on last year
 

zgx09t

Junior Member
Registered Member
A quick thought on two prime principals' nuclear arsenals.
China's H bombs design may or may not require weapon grade fissile materials. Counting weapon grade fissile materials to gauge China's thermonuclear arsenal size may be quite misleading. Anyway, Taiwan war will be polity level event. Hope that doesn't end up as a specie level event.

Quite ironic with all the talks of ESG and climate change going around to save the planet.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
In geopolitical terms, the goal would be to make clear to the US and the world that Taiwan ultimately is not a territory that is China is trifling with but something that they consider to be willing to sacrifice the entire world over if necessary, in the same way that the US would sacrifice the entire world if it was under attack in an equivalent manner.

My guess is that the US would have to call China's bluff on that one, otherwise any nuclear power would have the ability to force Washington to back down over any other future dispute just by threatening nuclear war. For a start it would encourage North Korea to make unreasonable demands off the ROK, such as crippling financial transfers to benefit the Kim regime.

I appreciate that there are special issues at play with Taiwan, but once it worked everyone else would want the same treatment. It could even lead to more nuclear proliferation around the world.

There's also the really unfortunate possibility that Washington would conclude that Xi had gone completely bat-shit crazy and that a nuclear first strike was required because at some point he was going to press the button anyway.
 
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