Syrian Crisis...2013
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think they will go as far as trying to intercept any tomahawks the US shoots at Syria, maybe even UAVs, but will draw the line at anything manned.
Although the Americans undoubtably hold the overwhelming advantage in terms of firepower and combat power, the Russians do have more leave way to up the ante without forcing an all out shooting war with the US. So unless the US is prepared to effectively declare war on Russia by firing on their ships, there just isn't a whole lot the US can do in response to the Russians taking pot shots at their tomahawks other than maybe sending those missiles on a very circular route to avoid coming into range of the Russian ships on their way to Syria.
I suppose the US can double down and send manned aircraft and dare the Russians to shoot at them, but that may play right into the Russian's hands because as soon as American pilots are flying over Syria, the stakes become far higher for America in case a pilot is shot down. And Russia can make life even harder for those US pilots by using their radars to light up those American fighters for the Syrians, thus making traditional SEAD and DEAD far more difficult.
I think the Russians are there to ensure that the US does not get the idea of doing anything like regime change or decapitation. Assad will have taken measures to avoid it himself and will be secreted away somewhere, very hard to hit in any case.
If the US ends up doing what I believe they will...that is launch 100-200 Tomahawks at military targets within Syria related to the ability to attack with chemical weapons, then those Russian ships will sit there and not take any active part whatsoever. They will probably be out to sea (the combatants) where they could maneuver and more ably defend themselves if necessary. There will be some amphibs, support ships, etc. left in port and these will ensure that the port facilities themselves are not targeted.
Such a US attack as this is meant to simply send a strong message...and is being conducted purely to make Obama look credible when he gives a warning. However, it will not amount to very much militarily as far as the civil war goes at all. It will cause damage to Syrian units associated with potential chemical deployment (ie. Air Force units, artillery units, radars for the air force, etc.) so will be costly to the Syrians, but not fatal by any stretch, and not of much impact (as I say) to the civil war.
If that is how it goes, then at the end, Obama will puff out his chest and strut around like he is come kind of Peacock and the US press will back him in that. Putin will complain loudly and seek to adopt some sort of political and foreign relations penalty for Obama, and the civil war will continue as before.
Now, if Obama tries to go after the Syrian C&C in a serious way and goes after Assad, or if the campaign continues for weeks and is a clear effort to seriously degrade Syrian military efforts across the board in preparation for an air campaign, then I expect the Russians would reach a point where they would potentially become actively involved, probably starting off by using their vessels to actively jam, decoy and deter strikes first.
Or, if Iran goes crazy and mounts a serious attack on Israel, then all bets are off and a regional war could easily break out.
Also, if Syria mounts a strong defense and launches Yahkont missiles at US ships, or mounts serious air attacks against US vessels, this too would cause things to escalate.
But my bet is, as long as certain parameters are maintained by the US strike, as mentioned above, Putin will ensure that Assad does not do anything rash and advise him to just weather the storm.
Anyhow, that's how I see it going.
SteelBird
Colonel
Remember 1998? The Russian also sent ships (only one?) to Kosovo but end the end it's just a show. This is more or less a chicken game!
TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
As the man once said "You play chicken long enough eventuality you fry."
SinoSoldier
Colonel
Russia probably will put most of their effort into training Syrian crews and providing them with Yakhont missiles and radars.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
It's unbelievable how many people think that Russia could harass US involvement without repercussions.
The United States Navy not only possess a titanic technological and numerical superiority, they are significantly better trained and has a lot more experience in warfare.
The United States Navy can do the following if Russia chooses to shoot down Tomahawks or illuminate US aircraft:
- jam Russian radars
- launch giant ECM attacks frequently
- equip Syrian rebels with anti ship weapons and provide them the locations of Russian ships with daily updates as well as training
- launch cyberattacks against Russia's C4I systems
- have a virginia class submarine lay mines around the locations of the Russian ships, and claim that it's for Syrian vessels
- blind Russian satellites with ground based lasers
- force Russian ships to tune into US psychological broadcasts
- have a AGM-88 lock onto and destroy a Russian radar and call it a freak accident
The United States Navy not only possess a titanic technological and numerical superiority, they are significantly better trained and has a lot more experience in warfare.
The United States Navy can do the following if Russia chooses to shoot down Tomahawks or illuminate US aircraft:
- jam Russian radars
- launch giant ECM attacks frequently
- equip Syrian rebels with anti ship weapons and provide them the locations of Russian ships with daily updates as well as training
- launch cyberattacks against Russia's C4I systems
- have a virginia class submarine lay mines around the locations of the Russian ships, and claim that it's for Syrian vessels
- blind Russian satellites with ground based lasers
- force Russian ships to tune into US psychological broadcasts
- have a AGM-88 lock onto and destroy a Russian radar and call it a freak accident
kwaigonegin
Colonel
Everything you said is true HOWEVER if any or a few of those scenarios happen then we're talking about a potential for serious escalation and I seriously doubt the Obama admin wants to actively engage the Russians even if the USN has a technological and numerical superiority.
From a political standpoint Obama also has a lot more to lose than Putin. Heck with all the internal problems that Russia has, Putin may secretly want to go to into a limited/proxy war with the US because it will definitely unite the populace and strengthen his political grip on the country even more.
As long as the Assad regime is still left standing, no actual human beings are injured or dead (on the American and Russian side) or equipment destroyed as a direct result of the other's actions then things will be ok I think.
