My humble two cents takeaway is this: In the end, Assad didn't fall because he lost on the battlefield. His armies and soldiers vanished and lost their will to fight because of sanctions that crushed the Syrian economy after the Civil War. Which Assad was never able to overcome. Once people saw that their lives weren't getting better, support for Assad vanished. Economics is extremely important. Ultimately, everyone wants the best for their family, their children. This is more important than ideology or geopolitics. And this is understandable. In my view, Russia, Iran and China should view this pragmatically. It also further underscores the need to accelerate the building of not only an alternative monetary and payments system, but an entire alternative economic universe that is sanctions proof.
Syrian Civil War
- Thread starter RedMetalSeadramon
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To be fair a lot of countries who have views opposing the west will get sanctioned. Yet some can be more resilient than others in response to it.
But to be fair a lot of those countries are being slowly being bled dry by sanctions as well. Just look at Cuba and Venezuela. The only reason they are in better shape than Syria is because Syria had on top of sanctions a seven year brutal Civil War which leveled it's economy. And of course it had an armed opposition backed by a more powerful neighboring country with a land border to it.
But the fundamental reason why Assad was not able to take advantage of his past military victories to consolidate popular support was economic weakness and mismanagement. And ironically, it was the same reason why the original Syrian civil war broke out in 2011 to begin with - the Arab spring triggered by drought, rising fuel and food costs and an agricultural crisis.
So again, the lesson for all countries in the world, no matter who you are, is a need for economic independence and a solid basis for growth.
@sequ I'm curious. Lets say that Assad really does fall and the "rebels" do take over Syria. What do you think is gonna happen next between this "Free Syria" and Israel? Are they gonna get along like brothers with Israel like what they promised on The Times of Israel, turning their weapons next on Hezbollah and Iran? Or are they gonna backstab Israel, taking over the fighting of Israel from the old "Axis of Resistance"?
Maybe you should look at photos of countries before they were traumatized by war and terrorism.
China used to be considered one of the cleanest, most elegant civilization from 600 AD (after smoothing out the roughness of the Qin/Han/Jin era) to 1800 AD.
By 1900 AD China was traumatized by decades of war and poverty and was reduced to something like Afghanistan.
Would you have wanted someone to condescendingly say "it is natural for the Chinese to prefer filth and poverty. Who are we to judge whether these savages truly want modernity or not? Modernity isn't for everyone."
They are going to focus on themselves. They need to rebuild the country and society. There is no room for anything else.
After getting bombed for 10+ years by Assad aligned forces, there really is not a lot of reason for HTS to fight Israel before they finished settling the score with Hezbollah and Iran. Even if they do secure Syria, there's nothing stopping Hezbollah from just crossing the border and continue the fight any time they want, I doubt they will have any spare manpower to even consider fighting Israel, nor are they equipped for it. If not for Palestine, HTS and Israel would basically be natural allies just based off their mutual hatred of Iran and Hezbollah.
Unless this "new version" of the "Rebels" can reach a truce with Hezbollah and Iran after toppling Assad, there can be no lasting peace. Taking down a spent Assad is one thing, but taking down Hezbollah and Iran is a whole other matter. That kind of war is even more brutal, its regional, and can last for years. If they decide to take further orders from Israel, Erdogan, and the West, then they will eventually be directed to go and mess up Russia and China. This will provoke an even bigger conflict, and Syria will be in a state of perpetual war, with no time at all to settle down and rebuild. Its not like Israel, Erdogan, and the West actually cares about the welfare of the average Syrian.
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