Speculation and facts on future Chinese vessels

SinoSoldier said:

Is there some change in doctrine for the PLAN? I thought their earliest goal is to establish a blue water fleet as early as possible. Building smaller and more numerous ships also puts a strain on the PLAN manpower, and as far as I know the military is wanting to cut its size. I wouldn't be disappointed if only four or five 9000 ton ships are built but the 2018 date and the 052D specs are a bit suspicious.

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... the PLAN are looking to be expanding ship number and displacement, a 7000 ton 052D will offer an excellent replacement to the masses of ludas. Besides they already have a blue water navy in most respects of the word.

And I also doubt that the PLAN would build a cruiser; such concepts are not useful in modern situations and even the US has dropped their CGX program. 10000 tons would be in my opinion the largest the PLAN is willing to go in terms of warships.

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10,000 tons is the accepted weight of cruisers and for PLAN's future USN esque trajectory a substantial number of such vessels will be necessary to act as the primary shields of carriers. CGX was meant to be some 25k but never materialized, clearly PLAN won't be going there.

Regarding your comment on patrols; the Type 056 or Type 054A would be perfect for such tasks and anti-piracy patrols as well; the destroyers would be reserved for serious enemies and a 7000 ton ship won't give you much of an advantage.

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056 doesn't quite have the endurance for blue water patrols, and 054A will be stopping production sometime this decade, though I expect the 059 to be the 054A of 2020+ (i.e. decently capable multirole workhorse). Even 052D is expected, with its medium-heavy displacement for DDGs. It's the 10k ton CG which shows PLAN are serious about the kind of navy they want for the twenty first century.

Even the Indian Navy is increasing tonnage via their Kolkata class destroyers.

The way I envisioned the 2020 PLAN fleet was:
- 2 aircraft carriers
- small number of 10000 ton destroyers
- medium number of 7000 ton destroyers
- 16 054A frigates
- 20 056

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That's more or less what's happening going by A man's chart. We will have a small number of 058 cruisers in service by 2020 and a larger number of 052Ds in service too.

SinoSoldier said:

Personally I think the 052D will be much heavier than 6800T.

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ok so to summerise this is how it looks for 2025

6 x Type 052Cs being built
8 x Type 052Ds
16 x Type 054As
8 x Type 058 Cruisers
4 x Type 059 Frigates

this means there is not going to be any frigate construction from 2016-2023, is this possible?

nevertheless this list seems to be credible, just seems right for some reason, thanks A. Man good job!!

is there any mentioned of Type 056 Corvette numbers?

I also find it very difficult to believe that there will be no frigates between 2016 and 2023, when I expected 8 Type 054B in the 2016-20 timeframe.

As I find it difficult to envisage simultaneous construction of Type 052D and 058, where it would appear more sensible first to complete 8 052D and then start the large destroyer.

056 is mentioned in the 2030-2035 timeframe, with 16 being built for the two frigate squadrons at Wusong and probably Yulin.

Those Type 056 building now at Hudong and Huangpu are according to the indications that have appeared, going to the Hong Kong squadron.

franco-russe said:

I also find it very difficult to believe that there will be no frigates between 2016 and 2023, when I expected 8 Type 054B in the 2016-20 timeframe.

As I find it difficult to envisage simultaneous construction of Type 052D and 058, where it would appear more sensible first to complete 8 052D and then start the large destroyer.

056 is mentioned in the 2030-2035 timeframe, with 16 being built for the two frigate squadrons at Wusong and probably Yulin.

Those Type 056 building now at Hudong and Huangpu are according to the indications that have appeared, going to the Hong Kong squadron.

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personaly going as far as 2035 is bit of a long shot, 2020 or 2025 i would say is max, after that its just not feasible to plan for

but i think a ~7,000 ton Type 052D is quite likely, afterall it will be based on Type 052C with new stealth shape etc i also think that stopping and starting Type 052D is unlikely, they will probably follow in the footsteps of the transition Type 052C>Type 052D> Type 058 in that order, first establish a solid dedicated destroyer force then move onto a larger more advanced cruiser, using the knowledge and experience of 2 generations of destroyers, if that is the plan however i do think that simultanous production of Type 052D and Type 058 can be done

i have also heard before that a Type 054B frigate is on the horizon, based in and around FREMM multipurpose frigate, again borrowing and building on the Type 054A, having a production long that has spanned nearly a decade and 16 ships its unlikely that China will drop frigate programme considering they do have alot of older frigates to replace, cant see how they can go from Type 54A and jump straight into Type 059 frigate missing a "generation inbetween"

the force may look like this by ~2020

16 x Type 054A
8 x Type 054B
(2+6) x Type 052C
8 x Type 052D

thats 24 frigates + 16 destroyers

^ 059 could be the FREMM type ship though. They've been building 054As far faster than modern destroyers in the last few years so it sort of makes sense to focus on destroyer (and cruiser) production for a few years.

I thought they might add a mini SAPARS aboard 054A's hull with the new common VLS for 054B but apparently not. I expected the "after 2015" class of surface combatants to feature things like integrated mast, advanced power management etc, while 054B would be the stop gap. The fact that they are going straight from a relatively capable 054A to (what I presume will be) a new gen frigate from the ground up (059) is not that surprising in context; Who knew 052D production will stretch to beyond the 2020s and there would be a new cruiser produced en masse?

The projection looks a lot like USN from a few decades ago weight wise, with OHP, spruance, and ticonderoga -- 059, 052D, 058 respectively, compared to current/future USN make up of 9000 and 10000 ton ABs and ticos, with some OHPs and even smaller LCS sprinkled here and there. Personally I feel the three tier system is better than the USN's future (effectively) 2 tier, with high tier destroyer/cruisers (almost no difference in capability between latest ABs and ticos), and the super low tier LCS.

You are forgetting 10 destroyers:
4 x Pr. 956E/ME
2 x Type 051C
2 x Type 052B
2 x Type 052 (modernised)

If they want Type 056 to replace JIANGHU II/III/V, JIANGWEI I/II in four second-line, independent frigate squadrons, they ought to build 16 in the 2018-2025 timeframe.

It looks unlikely that Hudong and Huangpu will build destroyers which is Jiangnan's specialty. So they will probably go on turning out frigates (including 056).

Which leaves out Dalian, and by building 051B/C it shows it's still capable of building rather modern ships. While it may not be as competent as Jiangnan it could share some work with Hudong for 054B while the latter slowly transitioning to some destroyer work. Frigate work can be transferred to those less experienced yards such as Dalian and Wuhan as standardized construction techniques are formulated.

Of course Dalian can build destroyers. They were the first destroyer yard in China and most recently built the two Type 051C's.

I have Dalian set aside for carrier construction.

Bltizo said:

^ 059 could be the FREMM type ship though. They've been building 054As far faster than modern destroyers in the last few years so it sort of makes sense to focus on destroyer (and cruiser) production for a few years.

I thought they might add a mini SAPARS aboard 054A's hull with the new common VLS for 054B but apparently not. I expected the "after 2015" class of surface combatants to feature things like integrated mast, advanced power management etc, while 054B would be the stop gap. The fact that they are going straight from a relatively capable 054A to (what I presume will be) a new gen frigate from the ground up (059) is not that surprising in context; Who knew 052D production will stretch to beyond the 2020s and there would be a new cruiser produced en masse?

The projection looks a lot like USN from a few decades ago weight wise, with OHP, spruance, and ticonderoga -- 059, 052D, 058 respectively, compared to current/future USN make up of 9000 and 10000 ton ABs and ticos, with some OHPs and even smaller LCS sprinkled here and there. Personally I feel the three tier system is better than the USN's future (effectively) 2 tier, with high tier destroyer/cruisers (almost no difference in capability between latest ABs and ticos), and the super low tier LCS.

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I thought the Type 054 is the closest counterpart to the FREMM? Frigates are meant by the PLA to have medium air defense assets and emphasis on ASW warfare, so I don't think a common VLS is exactly in their interest.