Interesting that according to this prediction there will be no DDG commissioning in 2015, presumably due to the transition to 052D, I'd rather believe that the building pace at JN will be consistent and 052Ds will be launched and later commissioned just like 052Cs. My guess is that they will start putting 052D together some time later this year.
Speculation and facts on future Chinese vessels
- Thread starter SinoSoldier
- Start date
franco-russe
Senior Member
”large group” dadui 大队 is normally translated ”squadron” in the naval context, while the even larger group zhidui支队 is translated ”flotilla”.
DDG1, etc., refers to the destroyer flotillas
DDG1 = 1 Destroyer Flotilla Qingdao-Jiaonan
DDG2 = 2 Destroyer Flotilla Zhanjiang
DDG3 = 3 Destroyer Flotilla Zhoushan-Dinghai
DDG6 = 6 Destroyer Flotilla Zhoushan-Dinghai
DDG9 = 9 Destroyer Flotilla Yulin
DDG 10 10 Destroyer Flotilla Lushun
The unit referred to as the Gulf of Tonkin frigate group does not properly speaking exist today. JIANGHU I/II 551, 552, 553, 554, 555, 557 belong to 2 Destroyer Flotilla’s 18 Frigate Squadron at Zhanjiang (or rather, 554 and 557 belonged until they were sold to Burma).
The Shanghai frigate group is 8 (Independent) Frigate Squadron at Shanghai-Wusong
The Fujian frigate group is 3 (Ind) Frigate Squadron at Ningde
The South China Sea frigate group is 2 (Ind) Frigate Squadron at Shantou.
So the type 052D would be a mature design, since it is suppose to be inducted from 2016 all the way to 2035, and we can expect the ones in 2035 would be much more advanced than the ones in 2016, despite being under the same class?
Also it seems that the number of surface combat ships would be more or less remain the same size but modernising overall.
Also it seems that the number of surface combat ships would be more or less remain the same size but modernising overall.
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I imagine so. A 2016 052D will look similar to a 2030 052D but if we're going from past and projected burke production, the 2030 052D should feature (what will be) modern electronics for its time as opposed to the "aged thirty year old" SAPARS currently aboard 052C and expected aboard 052D.
Tonnage will increase dramatically though, and that's what's important
asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
there are 2 navys i love watching, 1st is PLAN and 2nd is Turkish Navy
both are on verge of massive explosion of ships made at home, i can only imagine where they will end up
both are on verge of massive explosion of ships made at home, i can only imagine where they will end up
SinoSoldier
Colonel
Tonnage will increase dramatically though, and that's what's important
Personally I think the 052D will be much heavier than 6800T.
Well according to that they'll have 058 in a few years which is basically a 10k ton cruiser and probably be the arleigh burke/king sejong class rival you want. Although it sounds like it's not based on the 052 hull, so it may have that advantage over the burkes in they're using a newer more modern hull (stealth wise, and potentially unconventional hull).
With some 12 058's planned they can afford to have a larger number of 7000 ton 052D to act as the larger workhorse of PLAN (compared to current 054A). You don't need a 9000 ton, 96 cell DDG to show the flag or patrol the coast off somalia. A 7000 ton DDG could feature anywhere from 48-64 VLS cells and possibly 2 hangars too, keeping a potent but economic missile capability that is suitable for long endurance blue water, lower intensity operations (anti piracy for instance) but also act in a CVBG in it's own right, with a 48+ common VLS.
The way I saw the PLAN's future (late 2020s) force comp previously was either;
X number of ~15,000 ton CGs/DDGs, supported by 4*X numbers of ~6000 ton "FFGs" (with a ~8000 ton 052D having only production up to 8). Two major surface combatant classes, the FFG class will be used as the work horse for both CVBG/SAG and low intensity conflicts, while the cruiser class is reserved for CVBG and conflicts with nation states.
Or, what this chart is suggesting, Y number of 10,000 ton CGs/DDGs, 1.2*Y number of 7000 ton DDGs, 2*Y number of 5000 ton FFGs. You'll keep frigates as frigates in the "traditional" sense, potentially emphasising ASW and medium area defense and used more than the larger cousins to show the flag regionally, while destroyers are used for wide area air defense but still viable for low intensity conflicts. The cruisers are to be used exclusively in high intensity conflicts against other nation states. All will be capable of integrating within a CVBG/SAG.
The second option allows for more ships at similar overall tonnage compared with the first and thus greater flexibility.
Either way the PLAN will be looking into a massive increase of overall tonnage in the next few decades. Apart from the US I don't think any other country has such an ambitious schedule (assuming this chart's legit)
asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
i wish we could have similar info about Chinas plans for LPD, LHDs and Carriers
2035 is pretty far away. Thorium Molten Salt Reactors are expected to become available from 2020. While transitioning from Light Water Reactors will take time the TSMRs will most likely be produced in small sizes to be used where LWRs are too large. The Thorium reactors might be build in a factory and transported by rail to where ever. The relevant point here is that these reactors will be of the same size as are useful in ships, so it might well be that the first TSMR powered naval vessel will appear about 2025. This would lead to a re-balancing of the naval ship building program.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
Is there some change in doctrine for the PLAN? I thought their earliest goal is to establish a blue water fleet as early as possible. Building smaller and more numerous ships also puts a strain on the PLAN manpower, and as far as I know the military is wanting to cut its size. I wouldn't be disappointed if only four or five 9000 ton ships are built but the 2018 date and the 052D specs are a bit suspicious. And I also doubt that the PLAN would build a cruiser; such concepts are not useful in modern situations and even the US has dropped their CGX program. 10000 tons would be in my opinion the largest the PLAN is willing to go in terms of warships.
Regarding your comment on patrols; the Type 056 or Type 054A would be perfect for such tasks and anti-piracy patrols as well; the destroyers would be reserved for serious enemies and a 7000 ton ship won't give you much of an advantage.
Even the Indian Navy is increasing tonnage via their Kolkata class destroyers.
The way I envisioned the 2020 PLAN fleet was:
- 2 aircraft carriers
- small number of 10000 ton destroyers
- medium number of 7000 ton destroyers
- 16 054A frigates
- 20 056
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