South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Blackstone · Nov 12, 2015

My guess is China would exercise their option to opt out of ICJ arbitration with Indonesia.

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Indonesia could take China before an international court if Beijing's claim to the majority of the South China Sea and part of Indonesian territory is not resolved through dialogue, Indonesia's security chief said on Wednesday.

Beijing's claim to almost the entire South China Sea is shown on Chinese maps with a nine-dash line that stretches deep into the maritime heart of Southeast Asia, including parts of the Indonesian-held Natuna islands.

Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei also claim parts of the waterway. The Philippines has already taken China to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, a case Beijing refuses to recognize.

Indonesia believes China's claim over parts of the Natuna islands has no legal basis.

"We are working very hard on this. We are trying to approach the Chinese," Luhut Panjaitan told reporters. "We would like to see a solution on this in the near future through dialogue, or we could bring it to the International Criminal Court."

Although he specified the International Criminal Court, which deals with "the most serious crimes of concern to the international community" such as war crimes, it would appear he meant an international tribunal, such as the Permanent Court of Arbitration.

"We don’t want to see any power projection in this area. We would like a peaceful solution by promoting dialogue. The nine-dash line is a problem we are facing, but not only us. It also directly (impacts) the interests of Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam and the Philippines."

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Wednesday the Philippines' case against China had strained relations and that it was up to the Philippines to heal the rift.

Read more at Reutershttp://
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Brumby · Nov 12, 2015

Blackstone said:
US trotting out the encirclement playbook again? Would China see it as militarizing the area and act accordingly?

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I think it is inevitable that we will see further militarization by both parties. It is clear to me that China intends to turn the SCS into a Chinese lake. Do you expect the US to do nothing?

Blackstone · Nov 12, 2015

Brumby said:
I think it is inevitable that we will see further militarization by both parties. It is clear to me that China intends to turn the SCS into a Chinese lake. Do you expect the US to do nothing?

We disagree on China's intention to turn SCS into a "Chinese lake." It wants to dominate it the way US dominates the Caribbean Sea to be sure, but it would try and do it with as little military footprint as possible. The US would do what it can to maintain its military primacy in Asia, but unless China collapses economically, it's only a matter of time before it loses primacy. I hope it would be a peaceful transition to multi-leadership of Asia.

Blackstone · Nov 12, 2015

Jeff Head said:
Pretty much exactly as I predicted.

I predicted the US vessel would penetrate the 12 mile limit, but would not get within 4 miles.

In for a penny, in for a pound. If US was willing to provoke China in the first place, then sailing to 500m (or whatever it's safe) should have been the mission. Staying outside 3 miles sends the message China's artificial island is more than that.

Brumby · Nov 12, 2015

Blackstone said:
We disagree on China's intention to turn SCS into a "Chinese lake." It wants to dominate it the way US dominates the Caribbean Sea to be sure,

I am not familiar with the US policy in the Caribbean Sea but I do have a question. Did the US ever considered the Caribbean Sea as sovereign territory as China with the SCS?

Blackstone · Nov 12, 2015

Brumby said:
I am not familiar with the US policy in the Caribbean Sea but I do have a question. Did the US ever considered the Caribbean Sea as sovereign territory as China with the SCS?

No, US never claimed the Caribbean Sea was its sovereign territory, because that was never needed. Merely dominating the sea was enough to empower US hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. It's pretty much the same setup for China in the SCS too.

Has China officially claimed the entire SCS as its territory? The last statement from Xi Jinping referred to China's historical land claims in the area, but I haven't heard any official statement to owning the sea. If say otherwise, please provide the source.

Brumby · Nov 12, 2015

Blackstone said:
No, US never claimed the Caribbean Sea was its sovereign territory, because that was never needed. Merely dominating the sea was enough to empower US hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. It's pretty much the same setup for China in the SCS too.

Has China officially claimed the entire SCS as its territory? The last statement from Xi Jinping referred to China's historical land claims in the area, but I haven't heard any official statement to owning the sea. If say otherwise, please provide the source.

The Chinese lake view lies in the fact that China is claiming sovereignty as opposed to the Caribbean Sea. We all know China is being ambiguous in its actual claim but in the absence of clear defined delimitation, do you seriously think it will be small rather than a large proportion?

Blackstone · Nov 12, 2015

Brumby said:
The Chinese lake view lies in the fact that China is claiming sovereignty as opposed to the Caribbean Sea. We all know China is being ambiguous in its actual claim but in the absence of clear defined delimitation, do you seriously think it will be small rather than a large proportion?

Based on available evidence and official statements, I currently believe China's water claims are/will be relatively modest. I say that because Chinese officials commonly use historical presence in SCS as legal basis to its claims, and if we take China at its word, then it means land claims only, because no state in the area claimed sovereignty over waterways in the past.

Brumby · Nov 12, 2015

Blackstone said:
Based on available evidence and official statements, I currently believe China's water claims are/will be relatively modest. I say that because Chinese officials commonly use historical presence in SCS as legal basis to its claims, and if we take China at its word, then it means land claims only, because no state in the area claimed sovereignty over waterways in the past.

Borrowing Jeff's favourite line "time will tell".

visitant · Nov 12, 2015

Blackstone said:
My guess is China would exercise their option to opt out of ICJ arbitration with Indonesia.

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You have no idea what you're talking about, Natuna islands is not remotely related to the SCS territorial dispute, are you confused by Natuna and Nansha?

Still cant believe such onion news was raised by high level Indonesia officer, spread by main news agency and need Chinese Foreign Ministry formally respond.

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei's Regular Press Conference on November 12, 2015
Q: Indonesia's security chief said that Indonesia could take China before an international court if dispute with China over waters off Indonesia's Natuna islands in the South China Sea could not be resolved through dialogues. Has the Chinese side noted the relevant report? What is China's response to that?

A: The Indonesian side has no territorial claim to China's Nansha Islands. The Chinese side has no objection to Indonesia's sovereignty over the Natuna islands.

South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

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