South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Blackstone said:

The only scenario I could see a clear US "win" is if China backed down the way it did in the 1995/1996 Taiwan Crisis, and what are the chances of that? Every other scenario has the Chinese navy shadowing US ships and once they leave the area, China will retain the field of confrontation. By definition, that's a Chinese "technical victory."

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China already has this...and will retain it.

Having persistence directly in the vicinity of those islands is not the measure of "victory," as far as the USN is concerned. They have not interest/desire to do that...and really, no need.

Blackstone said:

US will claim (justly) it affirmed FON, but China's maritime neighbors will still see the Chinese Navy, Coast Guard, and militia fishing boats roaming the contested waters in even greater numbers.

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If the US Navy successfully drives through there, and if they successfully ply the water near the islands and within 12 miles of them, then they will have made their point and shown FON.

That is the point as far as the USN is concerned.

The USN has no intention of basing units directly near or around those islands. As I say, they do not need to.

They simply want to show that they can conduct operations near them when they choose...thus providing their allies with the idea that the USN can come in and help them do the same if it is ever necessary.

Of course, if the USN makes that point, it is very unlikely that it will be necessary.

If some other nation, even a ASEAN or US ally is a blatant aggressor provoking the PRC, then it is unnecessary for the US to intervene. That would not be protecting FON, which is what the USN is about there.

In this case, as I have said, both [parties (the US and the PRC) will see their interests served and will announce it...and I believe as long as the US Navy shows FON in the sea lanes in the area, that will be sufficient.

Jeff Head said:

China already has this...and will retain it.

Having persistence directly in the vicinity of those islands is not the measure of "victory," as far as the USN is concerned. They have not interest/desire to do that...and really, no need.

If the US Navy successfully drives through there, and if they successfully ply the water near the islands and within 12 miles of them, then they will have made their point and shown FON.

That is the point as far as the USN is concerned.

The USN has no intention of basing units directly near or around those islands. As I say, they do not need to.

They simply want to show that they can conduct operations near them when they choose...thus providing their allies with the idea that the USN can come in and help them do the same if it is ever necessary.

Of course, if the USN makes that point, it is very unlikely that it will be necessary.

If some other nation, even a ASEAN or US ally is a blatant aggressor provoking the PRC, then it is unnecessary for the US to intervene. That would not be protecting FON, which is what the USN is about there.

In this case, as I have said, both [parties (the US and the PRC) will see their interests served and will announce it...and I believe as long as the US Navy shows FON in the sea lanes in the area, that will be sufficient.

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Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Time will tell in any case.

Blackstone said:

Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Time will tell in any case.

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Hehehe...I can agree to that!

Jeff Head said:

If the US Navy successfully drives through there, and if they successfully ply the water near the islands and within 12 miles of them, then they will have made their point and shown FON.

That is the point as far as the USN is concerned.

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Seems like a pointless point to me at best, and the entirely opposite one to what the USN says it wants to promote at worse.

Was there ever any doubt at all that the USN could sail wherever it pleases? Hell, it can pretty much sail within 12nm or even 1nm (or closer if the waters are deep enough) of any nation's coastline uninvited, and what can anyone else do about it? Issue a warning? File a diplomatic complaint? Pretty much the response the USN expects from the Chinese.

Thus these missions prove a point that was never in doubt and never needed proving in the first place.

The only thing such bull-headed displays shows is that the USN has the biggest guns and can do what they like.

This is not some scholarly debate the US is entering in on regarding the legality or not of islands or features, this is the USN coming in and saying, "this is what we are going to do and what can you do to stop us?"

It is the very definition of might equals right.

They simply want to show that they can conduct operations near them when they choose...thus providing their allies with the idea that the USN can come in and help them do the same if it is ever necessary.

Of course, if the USN makes that point, it is very unlikely that it will be necessary.

If some other nation, even a ASEAN or US ally is a blatant aggressor provoking the PRC, then it is unnecessary for the US to intervene. That would not be protecting FON, which is what the USN is about there.

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So what happens if the Philippines decide its a great idea to go sailing within 12nm of China's islands also? Is the USN going to go hold their hands while they do it?

What happens if the Chinese decide they want to go tit-for-tat and do some FON missions of their own within 12nm of some of the islands/features held by the Philippine and/or the Diaoyu islands in response?

Either the USN has not thought this through very much, or they are counting on China always taking the high road and turn the other cheek with zero push back, or maybe getting the Chinese to push back is the entire (real) point?

Its no secret there are plenty within the Pentagon and various defence companies who desperately longs for Cold War 2.0 and sees China as the obvious new enemy.

plawolf said:

This is not some scholarly debate the US is entering in on regarding the legality or not of islands or features, this is the USN coming in and saying, "this is what we are going to do and what can you do to stop us?"

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Actually it is a debate over some specifics of Freedom of Navigation.

There need not be any controversy...but both sides issue their rhetoric...and it is both sides, Wolf.

plawolf said:

So what happens if the Philippines decide its a great idea to go sailing within 12nm of China's islands also? Is the USN going to go hold their hands while they do it?

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If the Philippines does so without threatening the Chinese positions on those islands in any way...the US will not have to hold their hands.

But, IMHO, it would be doubtful that others would do so after the US determines that the FON issue is resolved.

OTOH, if the Philippines belligerently acted as an aggressor against China and got their hand spanked...oh you would see all sides again issue rhetoric about it...but the US would not go to war or seek a military confrontation over an obvious aggression by the,

plawolf said:

What happens if the Chinese decide they want to go tit-for-tat and do some FON missions of their own within 12nm ...

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Uh recently they did just that in the Alaskan area. The US issued a statement that said they had every right since it was through the Bearing Straight where the acknowledged sea lanes pass within 12 nm of US natural islands and territorial waters.

plawolf said:

...or maybe getting the Chinese to push back is the entire (real) point?

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No, I do not think so at all. Just making sure that the FON issue, from the US perspective, regarding 12 nm and these artificial islands is made.

plawolf said:

Its no secret there are plenty within the Pentagon and various defence companies who desperately longs for Cold War 2.0 and sees China as the obvious new enemy.

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Hehehe...and it is no secret that there are also hard liners within the CCCP who would accommodate them. In nations as large and as strong as the US and China, there are always going to be those within those establishments who think that way.

So, where is the FON patrol? The world still wonders.



South China Sea dispute: US challenge may fall into China trap

"The US finds itself in an invidious double bind on freedom of navigation (FON) in the South China Sea. Having ramped up expectations in recent months that the US Navy is about to conduct a freedom of navigation operation in the Spratly Islands, it is damned if it doesn't. This first snare is a product of White House vacillation. If the operation goes ahead, however, Washington risks sailing into another trap by handing Beijing an excuse to militarise its artificial islands."

shen said:

So, where is the FON patrol? The world still wonders.

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Let them wonder.

Hehehe...as the US Navy said, "at a time and place of our choosing."

Jeff Head said:

Let them wonder.

Hehehe...as the US Navy said, "at a time and place of our choosing."

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I see, red line rather than action again should stop those leaks.

in the meantime, China is placing assets to counter the promised patrol.



who is going to pay for PLAN overtime pay? it adds up you know.

shen said:

I see, red line rather than action again should stop those leaks.

in the meantime, China is placing assets to counter the promised patrol.

who is going to pay for PLAN overtime pay? it adds up you know.

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Did they really transfer a type 022 to one of the Spratlys features? That could mean basing it there or at least lengthy rotations. But with its speed, it makes a better match to intercept a LCS as they have higher top speed vs the 054As.

shen said:

So, where is the FON patrol? The world still wonders.

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Freedom of navigation means ships may come and go on their own schedule and not on China's. I believe it's a strategic mistake for Washington to pick a fight with Beijing in its own backyard, but now the decision is made, you'll see the best navy in the world sail near China's artificial islands soon enough. Anchors Aweigh baby!