South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
GreenestGDP, you MUST stop inferring and projecting your thoughts onto news stories.

The Admiral DID NOT SAY that the 3rd Fleet will be forward deployed. She does say that she will deploy vessels on missions from her fleet as necessary to help the 7th fleet.

There is a HUGE difference.

Forward deploying a ship, or its group, like what has been done with the USS Ronald Reagan in Japan, is a permanent deployment. Deploying a vessel or two in a crisis is completely different and is a temporary thing.

The 3rd and 7th fleets both operate in the Pacific Ocean. But the Pacific Ocean is HUGE. They both have completely separate areas of operation.

Admiral Tyson is simply indicating that her vessels stand ready to help the 7th fleet whenever called upn. That has been the case from the start. She is just articulating it directly.

So, in the future, simply post links to the articles, and post the title as given...not as you see it, or would like it to be.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION.
 
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Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Brumby said:
The US FON program is well documented since it was introduced after the passage of UNCLOS. Every year (from memory) a list of FON challenges that are conducted by the USN around the world are published. The yearly list is lengthy and include challenges to many countries and including traditional allies (like Australia). The FON program is not picking on China regardless of what the talking heads are saying. The nature of the program is well understood and China should know that - even I do.
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US hasn't sent man o' war near China's land features since 2012, so the current plans to conduct FON, with such high degrees of publicity, could reasonably be intreperpreted as being directed against China; the intention is clear even if Washington doesn't come out and say it. I think it's a strategic mistake, and has a good chance of producing unintended and/or unwelcomed consequences that will increase tensions in the region and ultimately degrade US credibility in Asia.
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Brumby said:
The question you should be asking is which party is acting in adherence to the rule of law and make judgement against that or else how do you judge what is right or wrong.
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If you're talking about the artificial islands, then according to Barack Obama himself, China hasn't violated international laws. If you know differently, kindly list the source. And if you're not talking about China, then what are you talking about?
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Jeff Head said:
Wolf, that s simply heated rhetoric. I do not expect the Chinese themselves to follow suite with such terms.

The fact is, the US is NOT treating China remotely like an enemy.
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No, US is not treating China as an enemy, at least not yet. However, official US policy on China since Clinton and Bush43 is it's a strategic rival, and that's as close to enemy as any rational person wants.
 
Brumby

Brumby

Major
Blackstone said:
If you're talking about the artificial islands, then according to Barack Obama himself, China hasn't violated international laws. If you know differently, kindly list the source. And if you're not talking about China, then what are you talking about?
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A

advill

Junior Member
After any "storm" there will eventually be calm seas, when common sense prevails. No rationale to engage in hostilities in the South China Sea. International trade will be gravely disrupted, and NO country in its right senses can afford this. Neither a hawk or a dove be, but take an owlish approach & communicate using Military Diplomacy when required.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Blackstone said:
US hasn't sent man o' war near China's land features since 2012
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Are you including the SCS artificial islands?

The US has twice this year sent combat vessels into the SCS and in the vicinity of these islands, within 20 miles of them,

One time with a single LCS which was shadowed by a Type 054A frigate.

Then a couple of months later, with a LCS (the USS Ft. Worth) and a Burke class destroyer accompanying it.

That has already happened this year.

The next exercise will punctuate the 12-mile limit that the US does not recognize.

I do not see any high degree of potential for conflict over this...unless someone on one side or the other does something extremely foolish. I expect both sides will know exactly what the other is going to do in terms of how close the US will come.

I personally expect that to be somewhere between the 12 mile mark and the 4 mile mark. Nothing threatening will be done by the US as they do so...they will simply sail by.

I expect the PLAN will warn them and inform them that they are approaching their waters.

I expect the US will sail by, the Chinese will contact them and issue their warning...and that will be the end of it...unless as I say someone makes a foolish mistake.

You can bet both sides will be monitoring it very closely with the command chain to make sure that does not happen.

Anyhow, that is how I see it.
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Brumby said:
Can you please provide a link to the quote. I am curious as to what exactly was said.
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Here's the link:
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President Barack Obama said on Monday that land reclamation projects in the South China Sea are unproductive and called for an end to aggressive action in the region.

"We think that land reclamation, aggressive actions by any party in that area are counterproductive," Obama said in a town-hall discussion at the White House with a group of young leaders from southeast Asian nations.

"China is going to be successful. It's big, it's powerful, its people are talented and they work hard. And it may be some of their claims are legitimate," Obama said.

"But they shouldn't just try to establish that based on throwing elbows and pushing people out of the way," he said.
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Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Jeff Head said:
Are you including the SCS artificial islands?

The US has twice this year sent combat vessels into the SCS and in the vicinity of these islands, within 20 miles of them,

One time with a single LCS which was shadowed by a Type 054A frigate.

Then a couple of months later, with a LCS (the USS Ft. Worth) and a Burke class destroyer accompanying it.

That has already happened this year.
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I quoted from this Military.com article on USN near China's artificial island:
US Navy Hasn't Sailed or Flown Near China's Manmade Islands Since 2012
The U.S.
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hasn't sailed or flown near China's manmade islands in the South China Sea since 2012, an official said.

The last time the sea service conducted a freedom of navigation operation within a dozen nautical miles of China's artificial islands in the region was three years ago, according to David Shear, assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs at the Pentagon.

The acknowledgment came Thursday during sharp questioning from Sen. John McCain, a Republican from Arizona and chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee,
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of the panel.

"I believe the last time we conducted a freedom of navigation in the South China Sea was April of this year," Shear said.

"Within the 12-mile limit?" McCain said, referring to the distance claimed by the Chinese as their territorial waters in the area. "Come on, Mr. Secretary, I'm very interested in the 12-mile limit because if you respect the 12-mile limit, then that's de facto sovereignty agreed to tacitly to the Chinese. Now, have we or have we not operated within the 12-mile limit in recent years?"

Shear replied, "I believe the last time we conducted a freedom of navigation operation within 12 nautical miles of one of those features was 2012."
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Jeff Head:
The next exercise will punctuate the 12-mile limit that the US does not recognize.

I do not see any high degree of potential for conflict over this...unless someone on one side or the other does something extremely foolish. I expect both sides will know exactly what the other is going to do in terms of how close the US will come.

I personally expect that to be somewhere between the 12 mile mark and the 4 mile mark. Nothing threatening will be done by the US as they do so...they will simply sail by.

I expect the PLAN will warn them and inform them that they are approaching their waters.

I expect the US will sail by, the Chinese will contact them and issue their warning...and that will be the end of it...unless as I say someone makes a foolish mistake.

You can bet both sides will be monitoring it very closely with the command chain to make sure that does not happen.

Anyhow, that is how I see it.
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Well, I hope you're right, and if so, then the thing will blow over, but I suspect otherwise. I say that becasue Obama made it plain the Pivot Rebalance and its supporting components are about who leads in Asia, and there's no reason to believe Beijing doubts his words, on that score at least. Given that, I see China reacting firmly but not recklessly. What 'that' is I don't know, but I believe in the end, no one in the region would entertain any serious doubts on China's grip on the SCS and its intention to dominate it in time.
 
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