South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

There's a major Asian power that refuses to compromise in its far-reaching territorial claims in oil-rich waters, despite appeals from its smaller neighbor to resolve the dispute in an international court.

But it's not China throwing its weight around in this case. According to the tiny nation of Timor-Leste, Australia has steadfastly rejected attempts to negotiate a permanent maritime boundary in the Timor Sea, home to plentiful oil and gas fields.

The Southeast Asian country's prime minister, Rui Maria de Araujo, flew to Washington last week to make his case to Congress and the State Department, asking U.S. officials to use their influence with their allies in Australia.

It's not easy to get American lawmakers and diplomats to pay attention to Timor-Leste's maritime claims. But the prime minister argues the long-running disagreement with Australia carries relevance for increasingly tense disputes in the South China Sea to the north, where Washington has repeatedly accused Beijing of coercive tactics against its neighbors.

"If we could not resolve these issues following the principles of international law, how can you expect one of your big allies to stand up to China and tell them to follow international law?" he told Foreign Policy in an interview.

Australia, like China, has said it refuses to recognize the jurisdiction of an international court in The Hague that is supposed to resolve disputes under the

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Convention on the Law of the Sea.

What's at stake is not just sovereignty or fishing rights in the Timor Sea, but billions of dollars in oil and gas. After East Timor gained independence in 2002, the two countries negotiated deals on sharing oil and gas revenues in three treaties. Those agreements split evenly revenues from the lucrative Greater Sunrise gas field, while granting Timor-Leste 90 percent of the revenues from another field.

One of the treaties includes a clause that calls for a 50-year freeze on negotiating any permanent maritime boundary between the two countries.

As a result, Australia has maintained that the current arrangements have benefited both sides and that the two governments have agreed not to revisit the sea border anytime soon.

Fed up with what it considers Australia's intransigence, Timor-Leste last month turned to the United Nations to conduct a non-binding "conciliation process" with independent experts weighing in on the disagreement. The two countries are then supposed to hold negotiations based on the recommendations of the experts.

Timor-Leste made the move, Araujo said, because "we are left without any choice." Oil and gas revenues account for more than 95 percent of the tiny country's income, and it needs to clarify the legal status of the deposits in the Timor Sea to jumpstart production.

But Australia's view is that the resources in the area are being divvied up in an equitable way, and that the two sides had agreed not to delve into the maritime boundary.

"We stand by the existing treaties, which are fair and consistent with international law," Australia's foreign ministry said in April after Timor-Leste announced plans to take the case to the United Nations.

But Timor-Leste maintains that it always wanted to work out a permanent solution to the maritime boundary, and that it is missing out on revenue. Its leaders say the law of the sea favors the idea of equidistance, and that would mean drawing the line halfway between the two countries.

"If we use the principle of equidistance, we think that all these resources would belong to us," Araujo said. The fields are less than 100 miles from Timor-Leste and almost 300 miles from Australia.

The Timorese have come to distrust the Australians over the issue, especially after the Canberra government was accused of eavesdropping on cabinet officials in Dili during treaty talks in 2004 on sharing gas revenues.

The Timorese prime minister met with several U.S. lawmakers last week and held talks with Daniel Kritenbrink, the National Security Council's Asia director, and with senior State Department officials, including Thomas Shannon, undersecretary of state for political affairs, and Daniel Russel, assistant secretary in the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. He said he was optimistic his message was well-received.

By resolving the maritime argument between Australia and Timor-Leste based on international law and good-faith negotiations, the prime minister suggested it would strengthen the credibility of the United States and its Asian allies as they seek to counter Beijing's tough tactics in the South China Sea.

"If we could solve this problem, which is not too complicated, we will have much more moral authority" to address the South China Sea dispute, he said.

Click to expand...

AndrewS said:

Tribunal ruling delayed to July 12.

Looks to me like a political decision so the decisions can be leaked and everyone can plan and agree a deal on what will happen, as it's not in the interests of the tribunal or China or the US for anything to flare up

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Singapore’s defense minister has said there is a firm basis for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations helping to resolve disputes involving several of its member states and China in the South China Sea, “a critical waterway for international trade.”

“The Chinese would prefer individual nations, claimant states, to settle their claims bilaterally, and they have said openly and in that respect for ASEAN to stay out of it,” Ng Eng Hen told reporters, noting that Beijing has similarly cautioned non-ASEAN countries like the United States not to involve themselves.

“But for ASEAN and other countries, there is no ignoring that fact that the South China Sea is an international waterway,” he said, speaking in a group interview Tuesday on the occasion of Singapore Armed Forces Day.

“And yes, the Chinese has assured the freedom of navigation and freedom of overflight. But no responsible government can approach this on the basis that ‘Let’s hope that nothing happens even though the tensions are up.’ So we do pay attention to it.”

Noting that ASEAN and China in 2002 signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, Ng said that document, which details how to approach problems in the South China Sea, demonstrates that ASEAN is “already involved.”

“The DOC gave very clear directions that claimant states shouldn’t build on disputed areas. Yes, very few claimant states have followed that, but that doesn’t negate the fact that that was the point of agreement.”

China, which claims almost the entire South China Sea, strongly objects to what it perceives as nonclaimants’ interference in the disputes and any attempts at multilateral arbitration.

Only four of the 10 ASEAN member states — the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei — have claims over the Spratly Islands and other land features in the South China Sea that are also claimed by China and Taiwan.

Beijing’s insistence on settling these territorial disputes on a bilateral basis was a major reason behind a meeting of China and ASEAN foreign ministers ending in disarray in June.

In April, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reached a four-point consensus with Brunei and nonclaimant ASEAN members Cambodia and Laos that the South China Sea disputes are not an China-ASEAN issue and should be resolved bilaterally between claimants. The Chinese move was seen by some observers as aimed at splitting ASEAN.

“All of us note China’s preference to deal with these issues bilaterally. But I think the point is when others see that the tensions in the South China Sea go up, they are up jumping in because the situation is not made better,” Ng said, referring to occasional flare-ups in the hotly contested waters.

“Temperatures have been going up because of the disputes, and both claimant and nonclaimant states have become more assertive in their positions. There is a risk of escalations and unintended incidents,” he said, while urging China to calm tensions by dealing with issues quickly and resolutely.

Ng also commented on the upcoming ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague on the dispute in a case brought in January 2013 by the Philippines against China over the latter’s South China Sea claim.

“I expect that the tribunal ruling may escalate actions and reactions, so we should be watchful,” he said.

Ng said the defense community should introduce “practical measures that can de-escalate tensions.” He gave the example of a phone hotline that has already been set up among ASEAN defense ministers that allows the affected parties to contact each other immediately on encounters at sea.

He also called for more joint exercises and other military interactions with China to build confidence and trust and to reduce tensions, saying, “The more we engage with China, the better for all of us.”

Singapore is currently the ASEAN coordinator on the group’s dialogue relations with China.

Click to expand...

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

THE NEWLY SEATED administration of President Rodrigo R. Duterte will try to get the best deal possible from China after an international court rules next month on the Philippines’ case against that country over disputed parts of the South China Sea, with a televised Cabinet meeting yesterday baring acknowledgement that nothing can make Beijing toe the line should the decision be against it.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague said in a statement on Wednesday that it will release its decision on the South China Sea on July 12, first to the parties involved and then to observer states. The Philippines brought the case to the tribunal on Jan. 22, 2013, challenging China’s assertion to more than 80% of the South China Sea through the “nine-dash line” first officially published in 1947. China has consistently refused to recognize PCA’s jurisdiction on this issue.

While it is a bilateral matter, hearings have seen observers from “interested state parties” Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The United Kingdom was granted permission to observe the proceedings, but chose not to do so, while a request by the United States of America to send an observer was declined since it has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

“The Philippines believes that the rule of law prescribes a just and peaceful means of resolving differences, which is why the Philippines will fully respect the tribunal’s award as an affirmation of the UNCLOS and hopes that members of the international community and parties to the Convention will do the same,” the Foreign Affairs department (DFA) said in a statement yesterday.

Asked to elaborate, DFA Spokesman Charles C. Jose replied in a text message: “We will count on the international community to help us convince China that it is also to their best interest to respect and comply with the arbitral decision.”

‘A MORAL VICTORY, BUT...’
But Mr. Duterte, meeting his Cabinet officially for the first time yesterday afternoon hours after he was sworn into office, said the Philippines will have little practical use for even a ruling that is widely expected to be in its favor.

“Of course, it will be a moral victory and put that country (China) in an awkward position, but then again I said we have to go into reality sa buhay natin...,” Mr. Duterte said.

“We did a lot of many things -- hardware and all -- because we have to solve some of the problems that will involve violence,” he added, referring to a long-delayed military modernization drive kicked off by the Aquino administration that has seen delivery of two modern jet fighters so far as well as plans for missile frigates, surveillance planes and radar systems, among others.

Mr. Duterte has described such defense buildup as wasteful, saying funds would be put to better use beefing up internal security against extremists and other domestic threats -- long an inward-looking thrust of previous administrations that had been blamed for China’s unchallenged encroachment since the early 1990s on South China Sea areas claimed by the Philippines.

“Ako, I don’t want it. God knows I really don’t want to declare any fighting with anybody and if we can have peace by just talking, I will be very happy,” Mr. Duterte told his Cabinet men yesterday.

China itself has insisted on talking this matter over bilaterally -- a strategy analysts said was calculated to deprive the Philippines of help from allies like the US and Japan.

Lately, even the European Union has called for ensuring freedom of navigation through that strategic sealane west of the Philippines.

In the same meeting, Perfecto R. Yasay, Jr., whom Mr. Duterte has designated Foreign Affairs secretary, said the Philippines will refrain from taking a strong position after the ruling is issued.

He noted a court decision in favor of the Philippines will “not kick in [sic] the mutual defense agreement” that will commit a US military response should China use armed force in the disputed area.

“Foreign government representatives here, especially those concerned about ensuring freedom of navigation and maritime security in the place... seem to project that if the decision will come out and it will be in our favor, they would like for us to make stronger statements,” Mr. Yasay said.

“I am averse to that idea and I have told them in no unmistakable terms that the first thing we will do is to study its implications and its ramifications,” he added.

“The bottom-line question is: what will happen if the decision is in our favor, meaning that the arbitral tribunal will make a declaration about the legality of the nine-dash line and will say that this is part of our (exclusive) economic zone, including Scarborough Shoal,” he explained.

“What if -- in the face of these circumstances -- China will dig in and put us to a test. They will disallow again our fishermen from fishing in Scarborough Shoal. I think if this will happen, there is no point for us...”

China and the US have been on a diplomatic flurry before the ruling, with visits to Southeast Asian nations and public statements on their views. China succeeded this month in lobbying Laos to torpedo an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) statement that had expressed “serious concern” over developments in the South China Sea and the risk to Asean-China ties.

The US began to challenge China’s presence in the sea in October last year, sending ships and conducting flights near the islands China occupies in freedom of navigation operations that have infuriated Beijing. In May, China sent fighters and warships to warn off the USS William P. Lawrence when it sailed near one of its outposts in the Spratly Islands.

The Philippines contends that China violates the UNCLOS, to which both countries are signatories. It argues China’s “historic” rights are incompatible with the treaty, seeks a determination about the status of the features China occupies and asserts that China has interfered with Philippine rights via its construction and fishing activities. -- from staff reports and Bloomberg

Click to expand...

Chinese paper says should prepare for S. China Sea armed clash


China's government sought to downplay fears of conflict in the South China Sea after an influential state-run newspaper said on Tuesday that Beijing should prepare for military confrontation in the area.

The joint editorials in the Chinese and English editions of the Global Times were published as tension mounted ahead of a July 12 ruling by an international court hearing competing claims of China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.

The newspaper said the dispute had already been complicated by U.S. intervention and now faced further escalation due to the threat posed by the tribunal to China's sovereignty.

"Washington has deployed two carrier battle groups around the South China Sea, and it wants to send a signal by flexing its muscles: As the biggest powerhouse in the region, it awaits China's obedience," the Global Times said.

China should speed up developing its military deterrence to give the U.S. a bloody nose if it intervened in the dispute by force, the newspaper added.

"China hopes disputes can be resolved by talks, but it must be prepared for any military confrontation. This is common sense in international relations."

Asked about the editorials and whether conflict could break out in the South China Sea, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said the government was committed to peace.... to read more

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

SamuraiBlue said:

Talk about over the top hyping.

Click to expand...

U.S. Navy destroyers have been quietly stalking some of China's man-made islands and claims in recent weeks ahead of a ruling on contested claims in the South China Sea.

Over the past two weeks, the destroyers Stethem, Spruance and Momsen have all patrolled near Chinese-claimed features at Scarborough Shoal and in the Spratly Islands, according to two defense officials.

“We have been regularly patrolling within the 14 to 20 nautical mile range of these features,” one official said, who asked for anonymity to discuss diplomatically-sensitive operations.

The distance is important because if the ships patrolled within 12 miles, the Navy would handle it as a freedom of navigation operation that asserts U.S. rights to freely operate in waters claimed by other countries.

Those FONOPS patrols must be approved at very high levels, but these close patrols outside of 12 miles are in international waters. Experts say the tactic serves as a message of resolve to the Chinese and U.S. allies in the region and is a deliberate show of force ahead of a major international ruling on the legality of some of China’s claims; Beijing claims nearly all of the South China Sea, setting up conflicts with its neighbors and the U.S.

A spokesman for U.S. Pacific Fleet said the patrols were part of the Navy’s “routine presence” in the region.

“Patrols by U.S. Navy destroyers like Spruance, Momsen and Stethem — as well as the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group — are part of our regular and routine presence throughout the western Pacific. U.S. Navy forces have flown, sailed and operated in this region for decades and will continue to do so,” said Lt. Clint Ramsden.

Pacific Fleet declined to discuss the patrols and what message they were trying to send with them, citing security concerns.

“We won't discuss tactics, specific locations in the South China Sea or future operations anywhere in the region due to operational security,” Ramsden said. “All of these patrols are conducted in accordance with international law and all are consistent with routine Pacific Fleet presence throughout the western Pacific.”

The carrier Ronald Reagan has also moved into the South China Sea along with her escorts, the second carrier group to be dispatched to the region this year. The carrier John C. Stennis spent the bulk of its planned seven-month deployment patrolling the South China Sea, spending nearly three months there before leaving June 5.

On Wednesday, the Navy had seven ships in the region including Reagan, two cruisers and four destroyers, a Navy official said. The Virginia-class submarine Mississippi is also patrolling in the western Pacific, according to a recent press release announcing a port visit to Busan, South Korea, but the Navy does not comment on the location or movements of its submarines.

Click to expand...