South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Janiz

Senior Member
In communist countries the voter's percantage was always 99% for the party so it's all right estimation. And what communists love is physically exterminating any kind of opposition as their first step after taking armed power (usually thanks to other, 'big daddy' country and it's rifles).

But it seems like this guy knows what ALL of the people wanted in some distant moment in the past so there's no point in arguing with such strong arguments... This of course is universal, not only in this thread.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Stoney, I only responded? because you asked, I am the first born son of a Cold Warrior. As a boy, I celebrated my 5th birthday on Okinawa, several years later I almost moved to "Formosa". Four of the "heavy chain" C-130Es that my Dad would later fly in Vietnam were based there. My Dad was in Saigon, at the US Embassy from Aug 67 to Sep 68, employed by MACVSOG, I was aghast as the TET offensive unrolled, thankfully my DAD survived all that and came home in the Fall of 68.
Thanks to your dad for serving. I was still living in Taiwan in 1967, and I remember seeing US servicemen around Taipei and thinking to myself *oh wow, these Americans are willing to die to protect us from the Communists,* and it made a lasting impression on a child- one that I carry to this day. There's no doubt American presence gave the islanders a great sense of comfort and security, and showed their appreciation in return.

At every step along the way, the US had two main antagonists, both communist, both of those countries killed millions of their own citizens because those citizens opposed the communist take-over of their countries. As a US citizen, I vote for my own leaders, and I enjoy all of the freedoms guaranteed by the US constitution, my own DAD was in a foreign country attempting to defend the freedom of those people, who ultimately lost their freedoms and many their lives as Communist North Vietnam invaded the South.

So this is personal for me, as well as it is for you, respectfully bax.
As always bax, respect and appreciation from me too, especially when we argue and debate. Thus ends this month's mutual admiration society meeting.

One item to consider is China isn't the same Communist country we both grew with. Yes, it still calls itself "Communist" and is run by a "Communist" party, but its Communist in name only these days, although it's still a Stalinist state.

So, how does that fit with the SCS disputes? I think China is trying to impose its version of Monroe Doctrine, not because it's Communist, but because it's a reemerging great power seeking both maritime strategic depth for its coastal provinces, and secure its SLOC for its energy supply and its far flung commercial empire. It is doing that not because its nominally Communist, but in spite of it.
 

solarz

Brigadier
solarz, the Communist Chinese government has never allowed free elections, either, so how can you say 99.5% of the population supported them? If you're going to use the lack of free elections argument to deny South Vietnamese government legitimacy, you have to apply it to China as well.

It's pretty telling that those who worship at the altar of democracy have come to believe that there is no other way to judge popular support thant through so-called "free elections". The reality is, election results rarely reflect actual, enduring popular support. A politician elected with 60% of popular votes can find their support dropped to 30% in a few months. That same politician could then be idolized as a hero by later generations.

The fact that Mao is still idolized in China despite widespread acknowledgement of the failure of his economic policies and his role in the widely reviled Cultural Revolution is a pretty good testament to his popularity.

Look at contemporary Chinese attitudes toward the other founding leaders of the People's Republic, people like Zhou Enlai, Zhu De, and Liu Shaoqi. These people are held in extremely high regard even decades after their death, even after Deng's reforms completely changed China's social landscape. These are far more reliable metrics than polling station numbers.
 

solarz

Brigadier
In communist countries the voter's percantage was always 99% for the party so it's all right estimation. And what communists love is physically exterminating any kind of opposition as their first step after taking armed power (usually thanks to other, 'big daddy' country and it's rifles).

But it seems like this guy knows what ALL of the people wanted in some distant moment in the past so there's no point in arguing with such strong arguments... This of course is universal, not only in this thread.

As usual, you have no idea what you're talking about. The "distant past" you mentioned? Yeah, my parents and grandparents experienced it first hand.
 

Geographer

Junior Member
It's pretty telling that those who worship at the altar of democracy have come to believe that there is no other way to judge popular support thant through so-called "free elections". The reality is, election results rarely reflect actual, enduring popular support. A politician elected with 60% of popular votes can find their support dropped to 30% in a few months. That same politician could then be idolized as a hero by later generations.
So if elections are meaningless, why did you say that South Vietnam's lack of free elections deprived it of legitimacy?

I don't think Mao is as widely admired as you think, and that's even with mainland Chinese unable to access accurate information about him and his policies. Plus there is a selection bias among who is alive to have an opinion: those who didn't oppose him when he was alive.

Do you think think if there were free and competitive presidential, parliamentary, and local elections in China the midst of the Great Leap Forward or Cultural Revolution, that Mao and the communist party would have won them? The great economist Amartya Sen noted how the largest, longest famines take place in non-democratic countries because the politicians know their job wouldn't last beyond the next election if they let the food problem continue.
 
US-lead Asian order was established after WW2, with substantial support from most Asian countries. It is definitely not colonial in nature, since US has no designs on Asian territories. Facts show US lost territories since WW2, and that isn't in keeping with your Yankee colonialism claim.


This is demonstrably false, since US ended Japanese colonialism and supported China against the Soviet Union, after Mao and Nixon came to an agreement on China accepting US primacy in exchange for protection and development assistance.


Dude, get real. US was the bulwark against the Soviet Union and had real concerns about Communist expansions all over the world. Like other nations in the world, it pursued its national interests with gusto and remains the only empire in the world with no designs on other people's territories. Save your breath, I'm sanguine about millions of native Americans murdered through official and unofficial US policies, but we're talking about post Bretton Woods.


The Middle Kingdom is reemerging from about 150 years of decline, and at the minimum, it wants to co-lead Asia. US is the status quo hegemon and it wants to retain its lofty position. You could question if US policies are wise or even achievable, but let's can the colonial crap. I say again, the United States of America is the only empire with no designs on other people's territories. It has plenty of its own, especially when you consider Canada is basically the 51 State.


Now you get it; not colonialism after all but contests between an existing hegemon and a reemerging one.

Wow, you need to get real and cut the crap. Your precious post-WW2 order and Bretton Woods are part and parcel of colonial and neo-colonial history.

Bretton Woods was essentially an agreement by the Western European colonial powers and those under their influence/control to consolidate forces under US leadership.

Movements and wars for independence from the various colonial powers were all the rage across the world during and after WW2 including in most of Asia. French intervention in Vietnam was to maintain its colonial system and the US not only supported the effort but took it over.

Direct territorial ambitions are not required for neo-colonialism nor various stages of colonialism. The US may have partially ended Japanese colonialism, but maintained/supplanted it in places like the Ryukyus and in Japan proper, and actively pursued colonialist/neo-colonialist policies in destroying countries/governments around the world such as in Iran and in Pan-Arab countries not compliant enough towards the new colonial/neo-colonial master.

Communists vs anti-communists civil conflicts were used in many instances to rope about-to-be or newly independent states into the US or Soviet neo-colonialist systems respectively. Thereby the birth of the Non-Aligned Movement in an attempt to assuage as well as play both sides.

Mao and Nixon came to an agreement for China to openly team up with the US against the Soviets in exchange for the US integrating China into the US-led neo-colonial system somewhere between boss and subject. To frame it as "China accepting US primacy in exchange for protection" is utter BS.

Finally the Middle Kingdom is not "re-emerging after 150 years of decline", it has been re-emerging since the founding of the PRC and the ROC settling in Taiwan after 100 years of bottoming out. The US happens to be enjoying the pinnacle of its hegemonic power when it suffered different kinds of blowback on 911 then in the late 2000's financial crisis, just as the PRC happens to be reaching the pinnacle of the easy stage of their re-emergence and dared to question then attempt to change the system. Shocked pride meets newfound pride, shocked power meets newfound power, rubbing each other the wrong way regardless of actual intent.
 

solarz

Brigadier
So if elections are meaningless, why did you say that South Vietnam's lack of free elections deprived it of legitimacy?

I don't think Mao is as widely admired as you think, and that's even with mainland Chinese unable to access accurate information about him and his policies. Plus there is a selection bias among who is alive to have an opinion: those who didn't oppose him when he was alive.

Do you think think if there were free and competitive presidential, parliamentary, and local elections in China the midst of the Great Leap Forward or Cultural Revolution, that Mao and the communist party would have won them? The great economist Amartya Sen noted how the largest, longest famines take place in non-democratic countries because the politicians know their job wouldn't last beyond the next election if they let the food problem continue.

No, I did not say elections are meaningless, I said they are not the only measure of popular support. I also made no mention of South Vietnam's legitimacy, but rather I said that the idea the US military was in Vietnam to defend its freedom was ludicrous because the US helped scuttle the general elections that would have seen the communists win. How can the US claim to be defending Vietnam's freedom when it opposed the will of the Vietnamese people?

Contrary to what you think, Mao's policies and actions are widely known in mainland China. It is the height of hubris to think that people who actually lived under Mao's reign do not know as much about Mao's policies as people who never experienced it.

Mao is not the most respected figure in modern China. Only those whose knowledge of China comes from non-Chinese sources think that. Mao is a legendary figure comparable to the First Emperor: someone who united the country after a long age of war and turmoil, and thus providing the foundation for stability and growth, but also someone who was ruthless in his exertion of power. He is a gray figure, someone who did both great good and great evil. In contrast, Zhou Enlai is far more respected. You will find plenty of Chinese who are more than willing to criticize Mao, but you will find few who would criticize Zhou.

Finally, the idea of holding free elections in the midst of the GLF or Cultural Revolution is like asking what the world would be like if everyone farted rainbows. You can only have free elections if you have a stable social structure where power rests with institutions instead of individuals. It is mere fantasy to think that such institutions can be built overnight just through the goodwill of those individuals in power.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Wow, you need to get real and cut the crap. Your precious post-WW2 order and Bretton Woods are part and parcel of colonial and neo-colonial history.

Bretton Woods was essentially an agreement by the Western European colonial powers and those under their influence/control to consolidate forces under US leadership.

Movements and wars for independence from the various colonial powers were all the rage across the world during and after WW2 including in most of Asia. French intervention in Vietnam was to maintain its colonial system and the US not only supported the effort but took it over.

Direct territorial ambitions are not required for neo-colonialism nor various stages of colonialism. The US may have partially ended Japanese colonialism, but maintained/supplanted it in places like the Ryukyus and in Japan proper, and actively pursued colonialist/neo-colonialist policies in destroying countries/governments around the world such as in Iran and in Pan-Arab countries not compliant enough towards the new colonial/neo-colonial master.

Communists vs anti-communists civil conflicts were used in many instances to rope about-to-be or newly independent states into the US or Soviet neo-colonialist systems respectively. Thereby the birth of the Non-Aligned Movement in an attempt to assuage as well as play both sides.

Mao and Nixon came to an agreement for China to openly team up with the US against the Soviets in exchange for the US integrating China into the US-led neo-colonial system somewhere between boss and subject. To frame it as "China accepting US primacy in exchange for protection" is utter BS.
US being imperialists I buy, but neo-colonialist...? What a joke! Get that straight out of the little red book? The gulf is too far between us on this topic, so we'll just have to agree to disagree.

Finally the Middle Kingdom is not "re-emerging after 150 years of decline", it has been re-emerging since the founding of the PRC and the ROC settling in Taiwan after 100 years of bottoming out.
China didn't reemerge till Deng opened the nation to outside world in late 1979-1980, and only after the fires burned out through Great Leap Backwards, Cultural Wreckvolution, and the Gang of Four. That's after about 150 years (I'll accept 140 years) of decline from the first opium war 1839/1840 to 1980.

The US happens to be enjoying the pinnacle of its hegemonic power when it suffered different kinds of blowback on 911 then in the late 2000's financial crisis, just as the PRC happens to be reaching the pinnacle of the easy stage of their re-emergence and dared to question then attempt to change the system. Shocked pride meets newfound pride, shocked power meets newfound power, rubbing each other the wrong way regardless of actual intent.
US at zenith? Not in your wet dreams! US is definitely NOT in decline, quite to the contrary. It's still ascending, relative to the rest of the world, but reemerging powers like China and India are closing the gap. The bottom line is US hasn't reached the pinnacle of its comprehensive power because it is still rising.

We agree on the reemerging great power rubbing against the established great power, and while the two learn to live with each other, there will be friction, competition, and confrontations. Hopefully, there will be no conflicts, because nobody wins in those scenarios.
 

solarz

Brigadier
China didn't reemerge till Deng opened the nation to outside world in late 1979-1980, and only after the fires burned out through Great Leap Backwards, Cultural Wreckvolution, and the Gang of Four. That's after about 150 years (I'll accept 140 years) of decline from the first opium war 1839/1840 to 1980.

Wrong. Life expectancy and standards of living in China were steadily improving from 1950 to 1980, so it's pretty ridiculous to term those decades "decline".
 
US being imperialists I buy, but neo-colonialist...? What a joke! Get that straight out of the little red book? The gulf is too far between us on this topic, so we'll just have to agree to disagree.


China didn't reemerge till Deng opened the nation to outside world in late 1979-1980, and only after the fires burned out through Great Leap Backwards, Cultural Wreckvolution, and the Gang of Four. That's after about 150 years (I'll accept 140 years) of decline from the first opium war 1839/1840 to 1980.


US at zenith? Not in your wet dreams! US is definitely NOT in decline, quite to the contrary. It's still ascending, relative to the rest of the world, but reemerging powers like China and India are closing the gap. The bottom line is US hasn't reached the pinnacle of its comprehensive power because it is still rising.

We agree on the reemerging great power rubbing against the established great power, and while the two learn to live with each other, there will be friction, competition, and confrontations. Hopefully, there will be no conflicts, because nobody wins in those scenarios.

Your inability or unwillingness to see beyond the lens of the Cold War does not make me some sort of commie. Rather your presumption and accusation is exactly the kind of false dichotomy of choice used by both the US and Soviet camps to undermine and co-opt independence movements and unaligned countries. Have fun jerking off at the little red book you are so obsessed with. Agreed to disagree.

I count 1839, first opium war as well, to 1949 as China's bottoming out because though development wasn't perfect after 1949, either in the PRC or the ROC, at least development as the top priority became possible without having to compete for attention with fighting each other or foreign invaders in the homeland.

Note that I did not say the US is in decline but that it was at the pinnacle of its hegemonic power from 1991, the Soviet implosion, to the late 2000's financial crisis because the whole world had more faith in and were more eager to co-operate with the US during this period than at any other time including right now, because during that period the US took a series of unilateral actions at others' expense of dubious necessity and apparent net negative consequences for others so far.

However I certainly believe the US will continue rising on its own for a long time in absolute power terms, stay on top in relative power terms even if possibly not as hegemonic at times, and can earn back more faith and co-operation from others than before.

Back to the topic at hand it is apparent that the US is choosing further containment and brinksmanship with China both directly and by proxy. It is perfectly reasonable for the US to preserve its supremacy, but I think the degree of hostility and dishonesty it is deliberately generating is neither necessary nor becoming of the ideals it continually trumpets. The US can still win taking a higher road and making less of a mess around the rest of the world.
 
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