South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Can you guys please stop posting all kinds of discussions that has nothing to do with the subject of this thread. If you wish to demonstrate your intellectual capacity, please go and create your own thread and post until your heart contend.

I agree it is somewhat off-topic, but it does have very relevant point.

Many people in the USA don't realise that they are in relative decline in the world, as first China and then probably India will pass them in the coming years.

That view applies particularly to US policymakers, politicians and military personnel who are the ones in charge of formulating strategy in the SCS.

AndrewS said:

I agree it is somewhat off-topic, but it does have very relevant point.

Many people in the USA don't realise that they are in relative decline in the world, as first China and then probably India will pass them in the coming years.

That view applies particularly to US policymakers, politicians and military personnel who are the ones in charge of formulating strategy in the SCS.

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Sorry I don't buy your reasoning. You had spent a number of post arguing about relative decline or ascendency but not a single connector to SCS strategy. In other words, the last two pages of posts are but about the subject thread. Show me your connecting point.

You can see it in the attitudes of the US where they say they will go anywhere they please and do anything they want in the SCS. They think they can keep escalating and that it is China that will back down.

That is not the attitude of a country that believes it is in relative decline against China.

AndrewS said:

You can see it in the attitudes of the US where they say they will go anywhere they please and do anything they want in the SCS.

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The US said, it will sail and fly anywhere that the law permits it to do so. That right comes with legal boundaries but nevertheless is accorded to every nation by a rule based order. As to the statement that "the US will do anything they want in the SCS" is not something I remember seeing as a statement of intent but it does describe rather appropriately Chinese actions in the SCS.

AndrewS said:

They think they can keep escalating and that it is China that will back down.

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That is such a false narrative of US actions that one has to suspend reason and ignore facts to believe in it. FONOP is a program that has been ongoing since UNCLOS was instituted, more than 30 years ago. It is a program that conforms to the provisions of UNCLOS. In contrast China, has been escalating its activities in the SCS with actions that are destabilising, and changing status quo using highly contentious and questionable legal rationale. Your statement might have propaganda value but please don't insult our intelligence.

AndrewS said:

That is not the attitude of a country that believes it is in relative decline against China.

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You made a bunch of statements and conclude with relativity of state and you think you are being coherent? The US is acting within the rules and China is undermining them and that speaks of the legitimacy or lack of it in these actions. Relative state do not dictate nor is even a consideration. Basic reasoning needs to conform to principles of sufficient reason and in that it needs to address the causative nature between actions and reasons. Simply declaring it does not mean it is true. There is logic between reason and mindless statements.

The original point is that the US doesn't believe it is in relative decline and believes it is always right.

You can see this from the studies and the public statements issued by policymakers, politicians and military personnel. That is not an opinion. That is fact.

But we all know that the US is actually in decline, and can make terrible mistakes as a jealous power. See the AIIB fiasco, the constant wars and the previous analysis on US relative economic decline.

Now, let's accept that there is such a thing as international law. China is no saint in this regard, but at least China hasn't gone around regime-changing in contravention of international law, and leaving millions of people in failed states where they are worse off than before.

So it's obvious that both China and the US only follow the law WHEN it suits them. Then the law simply becomes a tool for hypocritical nations to pursue their own interests.

Here is an authoritative Foreign Affairs essay on the topic

AndrewS said:

No it isn't. You're making up this fact.

US growth is projected at 2.6% for both 2016 and 2017.
Overall World growth is projected at 3.4% for 2016 and 3.6% for 2017

If I take the IMF data below and do a rough calculation, the rest of the world (excluding China and the USA) is projected to grow by at least 2.88% in 2016 and we can see the 2017 projection will be a significantly higher number.

Hence the US is in a sustained relative decline with regard to the rest of the world even if China is excluded from the comparison.

This should not be a controversial point as the USA is already very wealthy, but the vast majority in the rest of the world is a lot poorer, so they can sustain a much higher growth rate.

IMF report with the numbers below

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The US isn't in "sustained" relative decline, and using two years projections to make that claim is weak. Also, near-term GDP growth only tells part of the story, because the coming demographic problems in China and reform-resistant governance in India cast doubts on sustainability of their mid and long-term growth. In other words, will China and India plateau or grow old before they grow rich? These are issues US doesn't have to deal with, because US demographic and national rejuvenation pictures look great over short and long terms due to strong immigration into its world-leading innovative society.

AndrewS said:

The original point is that the US doesn't believe it is in relative decline and believes it is always right.

You can see this from the studies and the public statements issued by policymakers, politicians and military personnel. That is not an opinion. That is fact.

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Your claims are demonstrably false. No policymaker, politician, or military personnel say US is "always right," nor do they say US isn't in relative decline to its main competitors.

But we all know that the US is actually in decline, and can make terrible mistakes as a jealous power. See the AIIB fiasco, the constant wars and the previous analysis on US relative economic decline.

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This fragmented phrase is misleading. US isn't "actually in decline," it is still ascending and reach new zeniths with each passing mark. It's more accurate to say US is in relative decline to some of its competitors. We agree US is a jealous power, and we also agree the AIIB fiasco was a strategic blunder of the first order.

Now, let's accept that there is such a thing as international law. China is no saint in this regard, but at least China hasn't gone around regime-changing in contravention of international law, and leaving millions of people in failed states where they are worse off than before.

So it's obvious that both China and the US only follow the law WHEN it suits them. Then the law simply becomes a tool for hypocritical nations to pursue their own interests.

Here is an authoritative Foreign Affairs essay on the topic

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

We agree all nations pursue their interests, and great powers cause bigger ripples while pursuing their national interests.[/quote][/quote]

Blackstone said:

The US isn't in "sustained" relative decline, and using two years projections to make that claim is weak. Also, near-term GDP growth only tells part of the story, because the coming demographic problems in China and reform-resistant governance in India cast doubts on sustainability of their mid and long-term growth. In other words, will China and India plateau or grow old before they grow rich? These are issues US doesn't have to deal with, because US demographic and national rejuvenation pictures look great over short and long terms due to strong immigration into its world-leading innovative society.

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What does immigration has to do with strategic long term sustainable economic growth? The US has such a large national and international debt ($18 Trillion and still growing) along with incompetent economic policies and racial and other social divide. If you are going to mark China social ills as it's only impetus to growth, than you have to do the same for the US or anybody. You are only basing China's GDP growth "problems" by popular bias studies by some writers as legit. Like I said it's all about the leadership, NOT the system alone to make a country prosperous for as many citizens as possible. China has a growing middle class while the opposite is happening in the US.