South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
I personally believe that the Obama administration did the same when the Lassen when she sailed by the islands.

Something on the order of diplomatic, back channel speak that said, in essence:

"We are coming on this date to demonstrate FON. This is what we are sending. There is no direct threat intended, nor will there be any unless hostilities are initiated on your side."

Then the US would have ensured that it had something close enough to lend support if necessary. That could have been anything from stealth aircraft (B-2 and/or F-22s) to a Virginia class sub nearby...and maybe a little further away, but close enough to help if it escalated, a US carrier strike group..
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
I personally believe that the Obama administration did the same when the Lassen when she sailed by the islands.

Something on the order of diplomatic, back channel speak that said, in essence:

"We are coming on this date to demonstrate FON. This is what we are sending. There is no direct threat intended, nor will there be any unless hostilities are initiated on your side."

Then the US would have ensured that it had something close enough to lend support if necessary. That could have been anything from stealth aircraft (B-2 and/or F-22s) to a Virginia class sub nearby...and maybe a little further away, but close enough to help if it escalated, a US carrier strike group..

Why the starkly different responses from China if the two did exactly the same thing? With all due respect to the fine service personnel and equipment of Austrialia, but they are not even in the same league as the US militarily, so it's not like China was cowed by Australian military might and decided America was the softer target to pick on.

I think the very different reactions is because of two main factors.

Firstly, Australia did its FON mission the right way.

Zero media fanfare beforehand, and no hysterical sound bites from prominent politicians.

They just sent an aircraft to fly close to the Chinese islands, announced that they are on a FON op when they got close, and waited to see how the Chinese would react. They most likely did not even inform China beforehand.

The second reason China's reaction to American FON was so much more server was because of the open secret that American FON ops were never really about FON.

The only consistent pattern anyone looking closely at what America is actually doing in Asia, as opposed to what it says it is doing, is that it is very much treating China as the enemy.

To that effect, America is expending great effort and resources playing spoiler to any and everything China does.

The automatic default response of the American government is that anything the Chinese does has to be opposed to resisted.

In 2010, China was actually fearly close to reaching a landmark deal with many ASEAN nations on the SCS territorial disputes until Hillary waded in.

More recently, we all saw how much effort the US put into resisting the AIIB, an initiative John Kerry said was a very good idea upon first hearing about it.

And those are only a few of the more prominent examples. There are countless other everyday examples wherever one cares to look.

I think that this is a grave strategic mistake.

China has been, and still is, extraordinarily willing to compromise and be accommodating and cooperative. But decades of having that goodwill spat back in your face will cool any heart.

The AIIB is a turning point, signalling that China is just about had enough of this poor treatment. If America is unwilling to be accommodating, China will do things its own way and damn America's hurt feelings.

If America continues with its current needlessly confrontational stance, it will start to see China make a stand on more and more issues. And then are will be in real dangerous times and territory.

China understands that America has its own national interests to stand up for, and has been going out of its way to try and not step on America's toes as it grows and rises. What it does not understand and cannot accept is America going out of its way to screw with China's business when it has little or nothing to do with real American interests.

All we can do is shine a spotlight on this so that peace loving Americans can see what is really going on, because the western media most certainly will do no such thing, in the hope that if enough people sees the truth, they can mount some pressure to stop this foolishness before we reach a point of no return.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Why the starkly different responses from China if the two did exactly the same thing? .
1st, we do not really know what Australia did before hand...any more than we know what the US did.

2nd, Australia did not send a warship by the island.

3rd, I believe part of the arrangement with China would have been precisely what both nations did. US does its FON without any overt direct reaction to the ship itself. China responds by loud protests in the international community, which they both knew the press would pick up.

Both nations end up getting what they want...and both recognize that short of conflict there is nothing either can do to stop the other.

China WILL perform reclamation on its holdings and then improve them. The US Navy will conduct FON exercises.

That's why...at least in my estimation.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Ambassador Chas Freeman is usually very balanced, so the linked article isn't surprising. Another well-balanced ex-diplomat is Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I think some people are reading both too little and too much into Vietnam's protest.

It is annoying and utterly useless, but it's the only thing they can do diplomatically. Just as China protests when other nations does anything of note on disputed islands in the SCS.

It's the standard game everyone plays to keep their claims active and avoid setting any precedents that might be used by others as examples of acquiescence.

I would be surprised if in the coming years, these sorts of protests might become so common that the relevant diplomatic personnel develop an unofficial short hand.

Something along the lines of both just taking out their phones and playing out loud recordings of their official government stance and messages rather than repeat it for the hundredth time.
 
US Navy & PLAN - South China Sea Situation News (Closed)
so I post here
SECDEF Carter Clarifies South China Sea Freedom of Navigation Operation in Letter to McCain
After two months, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter provided a clear explanation of an U.S. Oct. 27 South China Sea freedom of navigation operation (FON op) that both enraged China and left domestic maritime observers with lingering questions on American intentions.

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, Carter outlined the mission of USS Lassen (DDG-82) that tested territorial claims of not only China but Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Lassen transited “inside 12 nautical miles of five maritime features in the Spratly Islands — Subi Reef, Northeast Cay, Southwest Cay, South Reef, and Sandy Cay — which are claimed by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines,” wrote Carter.
“The FONOP involved a continuous and expeditious transit that is consistent with both the

right of innocent passage, which only applies in a territorial sea, and with the high seas freedom

of navigation that applies beyond any territorial sea.”

Innocent passage is a type of transit in which — under maritime law — a warship can enter a territorial sea of another country without warning but must refrain from any military action like activating radars, firing weapons, transmitting propaganda or conduct drills.

In particular, Carter explained why Lassen moved past Subi Reef — a Chinese-built artificial island in the Spratly Islands — in the manner of an innocent passage.

“We believe that Subi Reef, before China turned it into an artificial island, was a low-tide elevation and that it therefore cannot generate its own entitlement to a territorial sea. However, if it is located within 12 nautical miles of another geographic feature that is entitled to a territorial sea – as might be the case with Sandy Cay – then the low-water line on Subi Reef could be used as the baseline for measuring Sandy Cay’s territorial sea,” wrote Carter.
“In those circumstances, Subi Reef could be surrounded by a 12-nautical mile-territorial sea despite being submerged at high tide in its natural state. Given the factual uncertainty, we conducted the FONOP in a manner that is lawful under all possible scenarios to preserve U.S. options should the factual ambiguities be resolved, disputes settled, and clarity on maritime claims reached.”

Carter’s description confirms the account constructed in the trade and popular press in the weeks following the operation but not officially confirmed by the Pentagon on orders from the White House leading to “confusion that was completely unnecessary,” Gregory Poling with the Center for Strategic and International Studies Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative told USNI News on Tuesday.
“They should have released the statement a week after the operation not after two months of hand wringing.”
Another expert was critical of the innocent passage by Subi Reef and the ambiguity it might create.

“Observing innocent passage in the vicinity of Subi Reef was a bad idea,” James Kraska, professor in the Stockton Center for the Study of International Law at the Naval War College, told USNI News on Tuesday.
“The United States is making China’s — or some future claimant’s — far-fetched argument for them rather than protecting and promoting its own interests and asserting its long-standing liberal theory of navigational rights.”
source is the USNI:
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