South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

For a little over a year, between 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, Malaysia’s policy surrounding the South China Sea dispute hit a shroud of confusion. Taken aback by Chinese naval patrols around James Shoal (Beting Serupai in Malay), only 43 nautical miles off the coast of Sarawak State, the government responded with a baffling array of silence, denial, and nonchalance. Malaysian authorities had been caught off balance by China’s audacity, which they had not expected given Kuala Lumpur’s perceived special relationship with Beijing.

Now there is a growing sense of disquiet, if not wariness and exasperation, in Malaysia. There are more questions being asked about Chinese intentions and they are being asked more insistently. While elements of the special win-win relationship between Malaysia and China remain on the political and economic fronts, a very different reality exists in the South China Sea.

Until recently, a Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessel had been anchored near South Luconia Shoal (Beting Patinggi Ali), just 84 nautical miles off the coast of Sarawak, since September 4, 2013. Markers placed by the Malaysian government have mysteriously disappeared, replaced by those written in a “foreign language,” according to parliamentary proceedings. The CCG ship has also reportedly chased away Malaysian fishermen from the area and even threatened them, prompting complaints and a call to action by the Sarawak government and the fishermen’s association of Miri, the state’s second largest city.

Given the domestic political significance of Malaysian Borneo—Sarawak and neighboring Sabah State—if this keeps up the federal government will be compelled to rethink its options to respond in these waters. Malaysian naval and maritime enforcement vessels have already stepped up the frequency of patrols in the area, to 345 days in 2015 (as of December 14) from 269 in 2014. The government is also looking to boost the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency’s assets and capacity, including expanding its range of operations to 200 nautical miles from shore.

Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Shahidan Kassim first raised the matter of the CCG ship’s presence at South Luconia Shoal in Parliament in March 2014. In June 2015, he broke with convention by taking to Facebook to highlight the “intrusion.” His post, complete with aerial photos, marked a departure from the Malaysian government’s usually muted approach to the South China Sea disputes. Shahidan’s actions may have been anomalous given the quiet diplomacy that still prevails among the political and military leadership, but they reflected many Malaysians’ growing frustration at Chinese brazenness.

The CCG vessel left the area around South Luconia Shoal during the ASEAN Summit and related meetings held in Kuala Lumpur in late November 2015, perhaps as a matter of face. The intractability of the South China Sea issue had been highlighted earlier that month when no joint statement was issued by the 18 members of the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus due to bitter divisions over reference to the dispute. Nonetheless, Malaysia put to rest any concerns that it would be an obsequious chair vis-à-vis China.

The chairman’s statements of the ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summit each contained five paragraphs dedicated to the South China Sea, expressing concern about the possibility of militarization of outposts and the erosion of trust and confidence. The chairman’s statements of the ASEAN-China Summit and the ASEAN-U.S. Summit each contained two paragraphs referencing the South China Sea, though the former omitted any mention of land reclamation or militarization. All the statements affirmed the importance of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) and of concluding a binding Code of Conduct (COC), as well as the observance of international law. The East Asia Summit chairman’s statement even referenced the assurances given by President Xi Jinping during his earlier visit to the United States that China would not pursue militarization in the South China Sea.

Malaysian armed forces chief Zulkifeli Mohd Zin observed during the October 2015 Xiangshan Forum in Beijing that time will judge China’s—and every party’s—sincerity in the South China Sea. Time, however, is not a luxury all claimant states have. There is already doubt that the CCG vessel’s departure from South Luconia Shoal was permanent. And the scale and intensity of environmental destruction caused by China’s land reclamation work in the Spratly Islands means that marine resources may be substantially depleted by the time there is any effective and meaningful implementation of the DOC or COC.

Despite growing apprehension both internally and externally, the Malaysian government will continue to rely on diplomacy and restraint for its policy in the South China Sea. Instruments such as the DOC and COC, and proposals for an expanded Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea and an analogue for overflights, will remain highly valued by Malaysian officials. So too will adherence to international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Meanwhile the Malaysian government might be better off tempering its own expectations of a mutually recognized or reciprocal special relationship with China. If both sides were really placing stock in such a relationship, then it should be reflected across the board, including in the South China Sea. This does not mean that Malaysia should or will begin choosing sides between China and others in any conceivable future. But it means that in the face of rising Chinese assertiveness and a rapidly changing South China Sea landscape, Malaysia will no longer be as averse to recalibrating its policy as needed to protect, preserve, and advance its national interest.

Malaysia may, in fact, already be at that point.

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, Carter outlined the mission of USS Lassen (DDG-82) that tested territorial claims of not only China but Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Lassen transited “inside 12 nautical miles of five maritime features in the Spratly Islands — Subi Reef, Northeast Cay, Southwest Cay, South Reef, and Sandy Cay — which are claimed by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines,” wrote Carter.

“The FONOP involved a continuous and expeditious transit that is consistent with both the right of innocent passage, which only applies in a territorial sea, and with the high seas freedom of navigation that applies beyond any territorial sea.”

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The Navy is talking tougher about China than just a few months ago.

As the Navy’s top officer enters his fourth month on the job, a shift in tone is underway. In public remarks and his strategic guidance, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson has called China a competitor, grouping the country with Russia, and has talked openly of China’s development of weapons systems designed to counter the U.S. Navy.

That's a different tack than his predecessor, who advocated on building military-to-military relationships with China as a means of getting its rising military to be a responsible partner.

For nearly 25 years, since the fall of the Soviet Union, the U.S. Navy has ruled the seas, but not anymore, Richardson warned.

“That era is over,” Richardson said in a Monday speech at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. “Today, both Russia and China have advanced their military capabilities to be able to act as global powers. Their goals are backed by a growing arsenal of high-end war fighting capability … much of which is focused on our vulnerabilities.”

That theme was at the core of his new strategic vision, titled "Design for Maintaining Maritime Superiority," which stopped short of calling China a threat, but made clear that the Chinese are considered a competitor.

The tough tone from the new CNO caught the attention of observers, where debate continues about whether China is a growing threat to be countered or a rising maritime power to be engaged and influenced.

“I’d … welcome a bit more emphasis on how the Navy can ideally contribute to shaping China’s peaceful rise — using America’s military not just for old-fashioned deterrence or war fighting, but for helping to ensure that the rules of the global order are maintained and respected even as we look to acknowledge China’s new powers and prerogatives,” said Michael O’Hanlon, an influential security analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

The CNO is still in favor of engaging with China, but he also sees the need to counter China’s expanding capabilities and aggressive actions towardneighbors, said a Navy official familiar with Richardson’s outlook on China.

Those in Richardson’s camp note that while he uses more forceful rhetoric than his predecessor — Adm. Jon Greenert, who warned that it was unnecessarily antagonistic to talk openly about war with China — the shift in tone does not necessarily indicate a radical policy shift. China will likely still be participating in the biennial Rim of the Pacific Exercise, which brings together about two dozen nations in a massive military exercise.

China has been using its Coast Guard and paramilitary forces to harass and antagonize neighbors. It sent fishing boats and merchants to harass the destroyer Lassen last fall when it patrolled within 12 nautical miles of China’s man-made land masses in the Spratly Islands while the People’s Liberation Army-Navy vessels maintained a safe and respectful distance, according to a November report from Navy Times' sister publication Defense News. Afterward, China summoned the U.S. ambassador and warned the U.S. against doing it again, a move the U.S. has vowed to continue.

It’s that kind of tactic that Richardson has called “a gray area” and said needs to be countered in a creative way that stops short of hostilities.

Bryan Clark, a former top aide to Greenert and analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said the increased edge in Richardson’s tone doesn’t necessarily mean the two men have a different outlook, but is a response to sharper rhetoric coming from Beijing.

“As the new guy, he can take a slightly more confrontational position,” Clark said. “But in terms of what each thinks, I would say it’s about the same. They want to cooperate as much as possible with China, but want China to respect international norms and the sovereignty of its neighbors.”

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Zool said:

This should have been and should be going forward, the approach to take with all US Freedom of Navigation patrols, particularly in the SCS. IMO All press comments by State & DoD should be in the context of impartiality and not focused exclusively on China. My view is the same on commentary re: Chinese Island holdings/development. Remove the rhetoric and you go a long way towards reducing some of the regional tension.

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Blackstone said:

The single act US could take on PRC to dramatically reduce tensions in the SCS, ECS, and elsewhere around the world is to publicly announce in clear, concise, and unambiguous terms that it accepts the CCP as the legitimate government of China. Henceforth Washington will stop all efforts to destabilize China to affect regime change in the name of "democracy promotion."

The same statement should also say while it's the wish of free people everywhere to see China chart a course for government rule by consent of the governed, the free world also knows it's a long and painful process that the Chinese people and its leaders must embark on their own terms. Meanwhile instability and chaos in China is to be avoided at all cost, because the most likely alternatives aren't democracy and world peace, but things far, far worse.

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The Philippines is set to offer the US military use of eight bases, a military spokesman said Wednesday, after the country's supreme court upheld a security agreement with Washington forged in the face of rising tensions with China.
The facilities include the former US Clark airbase and air and naval facilities on the southwestern island of Palawan which faces the South China Sea, the focus of territorial disputes with China.

Military spokesman Colonel Restituto Padilla said the facilities would be used to store equipment and supplies.

He added that the offer had still to be finalised after the Philippine Supreme Court on Tuesday upheld a 10-year security accord.

The decision allows for the full implementation of the Enhanced Defense Co-operation Agreement (EDCA), signed in 2014 but not implemented due to legal challenges from groups opposed to US military involvement in the Philippines, a US colony from 1898 to 1946.

It will see more US troops rotate through the Philippines for war games and help Manila build military facilities.

"We have resumed talks now that there is a go-signal that EDCA is constitutional," Padilla said.

"We are continuing talks and we will finalise the agreement on the locations," he said without giving a timetable when the decision would be reached.

The Philippines hosted two of the largest overseas US military bases until 1992, when the senate voted to end their leases, a decision influenced by anti-US sentiment.

The new pact does not authorise a return of US bases.

China and the Philippines -- as well as Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan -- have conflicting claims to the South China Sea which is a major shipping lane, rich fishing ground and potential source of mineral resources.

The Philippines has been seeking closer defence ties with the United States, accusing China of increased aggressiveness in the South China Sea.

In April 2012, after a tense stand-off with Philippine ships, Chinese vessels took control of a shoal just 220 kilometres (135 miles) off the main Philippine island of Luzon.

Philippine President Benigno Aquino negotiated the EDCA to help the Philippines improve its military capabilities and draw the United States closer, partly to counter China's increasing presence.

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The Australian | January 21, 2016 12:00 AM
Scott Murdoch, China correspondent
Beijing
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India to build satellite tracking station in Vietnam that offers eye on China
Reuters By Sanjeev Miglani and Greg Torode
8 hours ago

NEW DELHI/HONG KONG (Reuters) - India will set up a satellite tracking and imaging centre in southern Vietnam that will give Hanoi access to pictures from Indian earth observation satellites that cover the region, including China and the South China Sea, Indian officials said.

The move, which could irritate Beijing, deepens ties between India and Vietnam, who both have long-running territorial disputes with China.

While billed as a civilian facility - earth observation satellites have agricultural, scientific and environmental applications - security experts said improved imaging technology meant the pictures could also be used for military purposes.

Hanoi especially has been looking for advanced intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technologies as tensions rise with China over the disputed South China Sea, they said.

"In military terms, this move could be quite significant," said Collin Koh, a marine security expert at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. "It looks like a win-win for both sides, filling significant holes for the Vietnamese and expanding the range for the Indians."

The state-run Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) will fund and set up the satellite tracking and data reception centre in Ho Chi Minh City to monitor Indian satellite launches, the Indian officials said. Indian media put the cost at around $23 million.

India, whose 54-year-old space programme is accelerating, with one satellite launch scheduled every month, has ground stations in the Andaman and Nicobar islands, Brunei, Biak in eastern Indonesia and Mauritius that track its satellites in the initial stages of flight.

The Vietnam facility will bolster those capabilities, said Deviprasad Karnik, an ISRO spokesman.

QUID PRO QUO

But unlike the other overseas stations, the facility will also be equipped to receive images from India's earth observation satellites that Vietnam can use in return for granting India the tracking site, said an Indian government official connected with the space programme.

"This is a sort of quid pro quo which will enable Vietnam to receive IRS (Indian remote sensing) pictures directly, that is, without asking India," said the official, who declined to be identified because he was not authorised to speak to the media.

"Obviously it will include parts of China of interest to Vietnam."

Chinese coastal naval bases, the operations of its coastguard and navy and its new man-made islands in the disputed Spratly archipelago of the South China Sea would be targets of Vietnamese interest, security experts said.

Another Indian official said New Delhi would also have access to the imagery.

India has 11 earth observation satellites in orbit, offering pictures with differing resolutions and areas, the ISRO said.

Indian officials had no timeframe for when the centre would be operational.

"This is at the beginning stages, we are still in dialogue with Vietnamese authorities," said Karnik.

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry confirmed the project, but provided few other details.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a regular briefing that Beijing hoped the facility "will be able to make a positive contribution to pushing forward relevant cooperation in the region". China's Defence Ministry said the proposed tracking station wasn't a military issue.

Vietnam launched its first earth observation satellite in 2013, but Koh said it was not thought to produce particularly high resolution images.

BLURRED LINES

Security experts said Vietnam would likely seek real-time access to images from the Indian satellites as well as training in imagery analysis, a specialised intelligence field.

"The advance of technology means the lines are blurring between civilian and military satellites," said Trevor Hollingsbee, a retired naval intelligence analyst with Britain's Defence Ministry. "In some cases, the imagery from a modern civilian satellite is good enough for military use."

Sophisticated military reconnaissance satellites can be used to capture military signals and communications, as well as detailed photographs of objects on land, capturing detail to less than a metre, Koh and other experts said.

The tracking station will be the first such foreign facility in Vietnam and follows other agreements between Hanoi and New Delhi that have cemented security ties.

India has extended a $100 million credit line for Hanoi to buy patrol boats and is training Vietnamese submariners in India while Hanoi has granted oil exploration blocks to India in waters off Vietnam that are disputed with China.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has shown a greater willingness to step up security ties with countries such as Vietnam, overriding concerns this would upset China, military officials said.

"You want to engage Vietnam in every sphere. The reason is obvious - China," said retired Indian Air Force group captain Ajay Lele at the New Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

Both India and Vietnam are also modernising their militaries in the face of Beijing's growing assertiveness, having separately fought wars with China in past decades.

Australian-based scholar Carl Thayer, who has studied Vietnam's military since the late 1960s, said the satellite tracking facility showed both nations wanted to enhance security ties.

"Their interests are converging over China and the South China Sea," he said.



(Additional reporting by Megha Rajagopalan in Beijing and Ho Binh Minh in Hanoi; Editing by Dean Yates)

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