Just saved this amazing post for future reference, thanks for the effort.
I also agree that there is a high possibility that Xi will bring back the position of Chairman
If Xi, brings back the position what role will he play? Can you have a different Chairman, President and Premier?
The thing is term limits or not, Party Elders (老同志) have a lot of say in country and party affairs even though they've retired out of the Central Committee. Case and point Deng picked Hu Jintao as Jiang's successor back in the day, and Hu-Wen managed to retain two picks on the current Standing Committee (Li Keqiang, who's ranked number 2 in the party, and Wang Yang, who's ranked number 4... in other words high level positions). Even if term limits weren't waived, there would be a 110% chance Xi still keeps his influence in party affairs much like Jiang did - the difference here is that Xi is so much more influential and contributed so much more to the country than Jiang ever did. Becoming Chairman of the CCP would give Xi more "legitimacy" and "clout" than being a Party Elder, whilst more importantly also keeping him in the forefront of party affairs instead of leading things from behind the scenes like Jiang did during the Hu-Wen Administration. It is also a two way relationship whereby the party and country benefits from the stability of being led by a proven steady hand, whilst mitigating drama and dirty laundry that tends to get aired out when administrations get turned over.
The whole reason the position of Chairman of the CCP was abolished was to prevent a single leader from rising above the party. Given the circumstances the country is dealt with as it rises as a global superpower and a historic position to rewrite the global order as we know it, I truly believe there is precedent and support from not only the party, but more importantly the masses to provide Xi the one-off opportunity to become Chairman. I'd imagine as Chairman of the CCP, Xi would still have a General Secretary as some sort of a right hand man to run the day-to-day operations of the party, as well as a separate Premier to run the overall bureaucracy of the State Council and Government. In essence the party benefits not from Xi's management skills, but rather his leadership and foresight whilst his General Secretary and Premier execute his plan.... I mean after all Xi spent a whole decade placing people he trusts throughout the Central Committee and especially in key positions, he doesn't need to be that hands on as a leader. Leaders from the 7th generation will occupy crucial positions such as Party Secretary of key provinces and regions, ministerial positions in the State Council, Director of the General Office, as well as Head of the Party Organization Department as a form of grooming towards higher positions in the standing committee later on.... I mean ultimately that's how a meritocracy is supposed to work - you put high performers from the party in positions to gain valuable experience, and then see if they have the goods to make it to one of the top jobs.
I could also see Xi retaining the position of General Secretary and title of President next year, then "taking a step back" in the 21st Party Congress by ascending to Chairman while concurrently maintaining the title of the Presidency and allowing the people he's groomed from the 6th generation of leaders to take on a more hands on role. Depending on where the country/party is at and whether it still requires a personality such as Xi in the 21st Party Congress (Xi would be 74, that's how old Trump would be now if he won instead of Biden) and the 22nd (Xi would be 79, almost the same age Biden is now), Xi steps down as Chairman and the party abolishes the positions unless future circumstances call for it to be brought back... Wang Huining might keep his position as Central Secretariat in the 20th Party Congress, and he'll be succeeded in the 21st Party Congress by someone groomed from the 7th generation leadership who follows the current status quo by ascending to the position of General Secretary as Xi's successor in the subsequent Party Congress. The same logic applies where someone the party thinks is Premiership material from the 7th generation leadership becomes First Ranked Vice Premier, and he/she ultimately promotes to Premier.
In summary I think Xi occupies the following positions and titles next year:
- Chairman or General Secretary of the CCP
- Gives him control of the party
- President of China
- Gives him control of the state
- Chairman of the CMC
- Gives him control of the military
How will they differentiate their roles? Who will the foreign leaders meet (unlikely to be the Premier), what responsibilities will the president have and what will the chairman?
So Chairman/General Secretary leads the party and the Premier runs the Central Government... But the President is the de facto head of the Central Government, so the Premier answers to him. That's why if Xi becomes Chairman, the General Secretary would seemingly be level with the Premier (party rankings typically still sees General Secretary being the more senior position over Premier).
Foreign leaders will meet Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, which is also a Politburo position. The position is currently occupied by Yang Jiechi, who will be age restricted (he'll be 72) next year. I'd love to see current Foreign Minister and State Councillor Wang Yi promoted to that position for all the work he's done for China on the Foreign Affairs front over the years... I think it wouldn't be far fetched at all to include the Director of the Foreign Affairs Commission into the Standing Committee, as the country rises as a superpower and foreign affairs takes up an increasingly important role alongside domestic policy, especially with BRI taking shape. The promotion is much deserved, except Wang Yi just so happens to also be age restricted by a few days lol.... Wang turns 68 at the beginning of October and the new Party Congress comes into session mid to late October.
The position of Premier is regarded as a head of state position, so foreign heads of states will still meet the Premier on foreign visits. Case and point Li Keqiang virtually met with Western business leaders just this week, and he's also made foreign visits meeting heads of states throughout his Premiership... all be it doesn't get as much coverage as Xi's foreign visits. I do think someone like Liu He, who has experience negotiating with foreign leaders (I'd say he's done well with trade talks with the US given the growing post-talk trade deficits lol), as well as Wang Yang (who also has extensive experience dealing with foreign dignitaries during his time as Vice Premier and comes across incredibly savvy and well spoken) could do really well as Premier when it comes to foreign affairs. Like I said both have extensive experience as well as accomplishments on the economic and commerce front, with Wang Yang being a bit more "liberal" and "free market thinking" than the typical Xi ally. While I'd ideally prefer the party grant Liu an exception to the age rule so that he can ascend to the Premiership next year, the party could absolutely benefit from Wang's differing views (but proven views, given what he's done during his tenure as Party Secretary of Guangdong where he transformed Shenzhen from a manufacturing powerhouse into an innovation hub) as a way of preventing the Politburo from becoming a complete echo chamber. It also helps that while Wang might offer differing views, he's still highly loyal to the party as well as the cause of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, and he won't (or historically hasn't anyway) directly challenge Xi's leadership.
