Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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stannislas

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Blitzo said:
The point of tracking rumours is that they often evolve and change with time, and sometimes they can eventually be updated in a manner where previous plans and rumours are confirmed to be cancelled.


That's why it takes years of continuous rumour tracking for us to be able to build a degree of consensus.

In the case of J-20, there were so many different names for it initially like J-XX and J-13 and J-14, and then overtime it standardized more to J-XX, and it standardized to rumours that it would be a canard delta heavyweight stealth fighter from CAC powered by heavy thrust engines, and then in the lead up to 2010/11 the designation began to be rumoured as J-20.

Rumours are not static -- old rumours are always updated with new information either confirming that they are still on track, or that something has changed.
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uhmm, I think our memory regarding how J-XX rumor evolution are very different, canard delta heavyweight stealth fighter was just one of many guess works out there before J-20 finally appered, it was until the very last moment we finally got the confirmation.

Blitzo said:
You seem very much against SAC fanboys and actively not a fan of the idea of a "PLA FC-31"/"land based J-XY/35".
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Yes, i'm really tired of SAC fanboys or every type of fanboys, CAC fanboys as well.
But no, i have no issue with "PLA FC-31"/"land based J-XY/35", all i'm saying is at this moment, it's too early to make a quick judgement from current states to PLAAF is going to acquarie large number of this thing, and skip everything in the middle like, 1) more J-20, 2) quicker 6th gen 3) small number of J-XY. We don't want to be those fortune teller, bet on one of the possibility, and prey it to become reality, right?

Blitzo said:
But using the standard method of rumour tracking that has served us pretty damn well since the mid 2000s, at present we have no choice but to acknowledge that such a project is likely in the works and we have to factor it into our calculations.
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I beg the differ, in fact, I feel the general rumor tracking almost wasn't performed at all. What did we actually successfully forseed before the last moment or turn into something concreat?

Like I mentioned before,
  • many people were expecting 052E instead of 055 for next gen destoryer by then,
  • stealth JH-7 had physical model and CAD screenshots, and was almost became a real thing until we later saw J-16,
  • FC-31 was even more so, I still remember when FC-31 was first appered in the highway service station packed like a ‘zongzi’, someone wrote a long piece of work lambasting Lin Zuoming for his corruption and embezzlement of public funds, and SAC for unethical realtionship between government. It's purely none sence of course, but you can definately saw how people was reacted with this surprise.
  • the very existance of 002, until we saw the first block many people didn't even believe china will build such thing. of course it make sense now, but by then? who knows?
My point is, rumor tracking is good for analysis but bad at make prediction. We always realize something like 'ah, this is what it was in that rumor' after the real deal came out, but until then, we rarely draw any correct conclusion. So we should carefully figure out where we are at, and keep neutral, and make analysis in more comprehensive way.
 
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Blitzo

Blitzo

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stannislas said:
uhmm, I think our memory regarding how J-XX rumor evolution are very different, canard delta heavyweight stealth fighter was just one of many guess works out there before J-20 finally appered, it was until the very last moment we finally got the confirmation.


Yes, i'm really tired of SAC fanboys or every type of fanboys, CAC fanboys as well.
But no, i have no issue with "PLA FC-31"/"land based J-XY/35", all i'm saying is at this moment, it's too early to make a quick judgement from current states to PLAAF is going to acquarie large number of this thing, and skip everything in the middle like, 1) more J-20, 2) quicker 6th gen 3) small number of J-XY. We don't want to be those fortune teller, bet on one of the possibility, and prey it to become reality, right?


I beg the differ, in fact, I feel the general rumor tracking almost wasn't performed at all. What did we actually successfully forseed before the last moment or turn into something concreat?

Like I mentioned before,
  • many people were expecting 052E instead of 055 for next gen destoryer by then,
  • stealth JH-7 had physical model and CAD screenshots, and was almost became a real thing until we later saw J-16,
  • FC-31 was even more so, I still remember when FC-31 was first appered in the highway service station packed like a ‘zongzi’, someone wrote a long piece of work lambasting Lin Zuoming for his corruption and embezzlement of public funds, and SAC for unethical realtionship between government. It's purely none sence of course, but you can definately saw how people was reacted with this surprise.
  • the very existance of 002, until we saw the first block many people didn't even believe china will build such thing. of course it make sense now, but by then? who knows?
My point is, rumor tracking is good for analysis but bad at make prediction. We always realize something like 'ah, this is what it was in that rumor' after the real deal came out, but until then, we rarely draw any correct conclusion. So we should carefully figure out where we are at, and keep neutral, and make analysis in more comprehensive way.
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I think we probably see things differently then.

To me, all of these examples you listed -- J-XX/J-20's configuration, 052E vs 055, stealthy JH-7B, FC-31, 002 -- are all excellent examples of the rumour tracking system working as intended.

For all of those cases, we often had years of prior forewarning before the real thing emerged or telling us that something was cancelled.


I believe tracking rumours over time remains the most proven way for us to try to project out into the future.
 
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Overbom

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Egypt is reportedly close to finalising a deal for procurement and TOT of the FC-31
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Egypt, SAC, FC-31 procurement and TOT deal​

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The Egyptian Ministry of Military Production (MoMP) is reported to be close to finalizing a deal with the Chinese aircraft manufacturer Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) to procure the Shenyang FC-31 Gyrfalcon fighter.
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ACuriousPLAFan

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Overbom said:
Egypt is reportedly close to finalising a deal for procurement and TOT of the FC-31
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Rather unexpected and a major surprise if the news is true, considering that:

1. J-31/FC-31 comes after J-35, which means that J-31/FC-31 would only enter service (perhaps) several years after the J-35 does (albeit not much of a big deal, as deriving a land-based variant from its original carrier-based design is much easier than vice-versa);
2. Egypt is said to be one of the prospective customers for the Su-57 and/or Su-75; and
3. I thought Saudi Arabia and/or the UAE would be the first customer(s) of the J-31/FC-31?
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

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Michaelsinodef said:
Saudi's and GCC countries might be behind this though
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How? Saudi and GCC countries pay Egypt as a front to buy the FC-31s before collecting those FC-31s from Egypt for themselves?

If that's the case, I highly doubt that method wouldn't raise eyebrows in DC as soon as the number of procurement becomes clear.
 
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gelgoog

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Egypt is already balking at taking delivery of the Su-35s they ordered because of CAATSA. The aircraft might end up in either Iran or the Russian Air Force instead. I also do not see Russia exporting the Su-57 until Project Metropolis i.e. Su-57M is complete. Su-57M is in flight testing right now. Then the factory needs to expand production and it won't happen in less than two years I think. Right now they are building the new paint shop for the Su-57 which will take at least a year.

As for the FC-31 before it racks up any major sales China needs to a) manufacture it for themselves b) make their own engines for it c) export to someone else first like to Pakistan.
 
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minusone

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ACuriousPLAFan said:
How? Saudi and GCC countries pay Egypt as a front to buy the FC-31s before collecting those FC-31s from Egypt for themselves?

If that's the case, I highly doubt that method wouldn't raise eyebrows in DC as soon as the number of procurement becomes clear.
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They have been gradually increasing their trade with china by using RMB..... i doubt pissing off DC is a major concern for them.

Also, those american jets will not fly without DC consent, time to stock up some jets that will.
 
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