Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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AndrewS

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So here's my take on the situation

1. The Chinese Navy is going with a bare minimum of 4 CATOBAR carriers which will require at least 100 J-35s + spares.
But I expect them to at least match the US Navy in terms of carriers, so it could be 300 + spares

Given that the J-35 will be fully developed and supported by the Chinese Navy, the additional cost of developing a land-based variant should be marginal.

2. Given Israel has 75 F-35 on order, I would expect Saudi to order at least 75 as well.

3. UAE has a deal for 50 F-35 which is on hold.

4. Pakistan would likely end up with at least a squadron as well.

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So that can be summarised as:

Chinese Navy: 100-300 + Spares
Saudi: 75+
UAE: 50+
Pakistan: 25+

EDIT
I also see other countries have requested a F-35 buy, but nothing has happened.
And I expect the Chinese Air Force will also end up buying some, because not every mission needs a J-20.
 
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iantsai

iantsai

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tphuang said:
Right, china will pick sunni nations over Iran any day of the week. There is a reason they have never exported anything significant to Iran. The market for fc31 is huge if they don't mess it up.
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I think China would not choose a side between the Sunni and Shia Islanmic countries. China always keeps itself away from the religious and political conflicts and tries to make friends to most countries.

But Iran is much a potential customer of FC-31 for China than Saudi Arabia, because SA has the possiblity to purchase F-35 from the US. They already bought F-15 and lots of other high-end tatical weapon systems form the US while Iran could not.
 
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defenceman

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Hi at the moment UAE (specially after exchanging diplomats with Iran ) won’t be getting F35
same is the case to some extent with KSA too as they both been or will be offered downgraded as compare to Israel F35 until unless some major war or serious conflict in Middle East
so their best bet is it’s J35 & ho knows UAE already order a squad or two when they are ready to roll out for export in advance buying and paying in the shape of other shinny armour
thank you
 
phrozenflame

phrozenflame

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Registered Member
AndrewS said:
So here's my take on the situation

1. The Chinese Navy is going with a bare minimum of 4 CATOBAR carriers which will require at least 100 J-35s + spares.
But I expect them to at least match the US Navy in terms of carriers, so it could be 300 + spares

Given that the J-35 will be fully developed and supported by the Chinese Navy, the additional cost of developing a land-based variant should be marginal.

2. Given Israel has 75 F-35 on order, I would expect Saudi to order at least 75 as well.

3. UAE has a deal for 50 F-35 which is on hold.

4. Pakistan would likely end up with at least a squadron as well.

---

So that can be summarised as:

Chinese Navy: 100-300 + Spares
Saudi: 75+
UAE: 50+
Pakistan: 25+

EDIT
I also see other countries have requested a F-35 buy, but nothing has happened.
And I expect the Chinese Air Force will also end up buying some, because not every mission needs a J-20.
Click to expand...
UAE went and bought 80 Rafales for $17bn = ~212m per plane.

GCC countries buying non-Western frontline fighters will be a major geopolitical shift. I dont think its going to happen over the short-term. They may negotiate for J-35 to push for and get F-35s.
 
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Abominable

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The Arab states have been waiting a long time to get an alternative to western platforms. Many of their pilots and instructors are Egyptian, Pakistanian or Turkish which operate western planes so it's natural they go for them. Being frozen out of the F-35 project is a blessing in disguise for them.

I wouldn't completely rule out Iranians getting J-31s either. Russia has been trying to get Iran and the sunni Gulf states to make peace with each other. It's been working very well so far, with the Yemen civil war having the longest ceasefire since it started. A sunni-shia alliance against Israel and the west is coming.

The biggest obstacle to Iranians getting J-31 is the Iranians themselves. They've been burnt once by the Russians, it may be that they won't trust the Chinese either. They seem content with their drones and domestic jet projects.
 
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AndrewS

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phrozenflame said:
UAE went and bought 80 Rafales for $17bn = ~212m per plane.

GCC countries buying non-Western frontline fighters will be a major geopolitical shift. I dont think its going to happen over the short-term. They may negotiate for J-35 to push for and get F-35s.
Click to expand...

I don't see Saudi or Egypt getting F-35s, because this poses a threat to Israel's military superiority.
And UAE has already decided that Huawei is more important than the F-35.

Remember that a stealth fighter like the F-35 or J-35 is a game-changer in terms of air superiority.
If you can't get a F-35, the J-35 is a good alternative.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
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iantsai said:
But Iran is much a potential customer of FC-31 for China than Saudi Arabia, because SA has the possiblity to purchase F-35 from the US. They already bought F-15 and lots of other high-end tatical weapon systems form the US while Iran could not.
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A short geopolitical opinion:
Saudi Arabia has been turning away from the US at an accelerated rate this year. I don't see SA picking up F-35 any time soon (if ever). As we all know, buying F-35 isn't about just buying an aircraft but becoming a full US "ally" (i.e. otherwise known as, servant). Saudi Arabia is about 100% against that.

We recently had a small trial run about something similar. Even with the relatively "weak" US demand that SA increase oil production, MBS basically told Biden to pound sand

In this case, I think SA is waiting for a genuine F-35 competitor. (Ground-breaking opinion here) I assess that SA will go towards the FC-31 with a certain degree of ToT depending on how big the SA order is going to be (or maybe even making a "group"-buy with the UAE to increase their leverage). Or who knows, maybe somewhat adapting the JF- 17-model where Saudi Arabia becomes the regional production/assembling hub of the FC-31.

It all depends on how much money (and strategic benefits) Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States can offer. The more they invest (resources and strategically), the more China will invest in them in return (localised production/assembly, ToT)
 
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sndef888

Captain
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Overbom said:
A short geopolitical opinion:
Saudi Arabia has been turning away from the US at an accelerated rate this year. I don't see SA picking up F-35 any time soon (if ever). As we all know, buying F-35 isn't about just buying an aircraft but becoming a full US "ally" (i.e. otherwise known as, servant). Saudi Arabia is about 100% against that.

We recently had a small trial run about something similar. Even with the relatively "weak" US demand that SA increase oil production, MBS basically told Biden to pound sand

In this case, I think SA is waiting for a genuine F-35 competitor. (Ground-breaking opinion here) I assess that SA will go towards the FC-31 with a certain degree of ToT depending on how big the SA order is going to be (or maybe even making a "group"-buy with the UAE to increase their leverage). Or who knows, maybe somewhat adapting the JF- 17-model where Saudi Arabia becomes the regional production/assembling hub of the FC-31.

It all depends on how much money (and strategic benefits) Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States can offer. The more they invest (resources and strategically), the more China will invest in them in return (localised production/assembly, ToT)
Click to expand...
How would that work though? Don't the arab states all look down on each other? I don't think they'll simply accept buying saudi-made j31s
 
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