They are gonna ask for local production.
Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator
- Thread starter RedSky
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That would be reasonable. I said it many times. FC-31 was always likely to be pitched to countries like Saudi and UAE.
Keep in mind the current US/Saudi relationship is quite contentious. Saudi Arabia is looking for a longer term security guarantee from America. If they don't get the terms they want, then China is at a position where it can provide these systems to Saudi Arabia.
There is certainly an element of Saudis using China to get better deal from America.
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Me too, and also suggested those countries, but since the war actually started now I wonder if there are other countries that might be considering asking for it too.
It’s a bit far fetched at the moment but Russia and Iran both have the talent, population, internal market and resources to pay for such a factory.
Each country can use as much of their own kit and weapons as they like in their own locally built versions, this is a nice and competitive market for other middle power countries to chooses from while allowing the PLA to keep all their best kit for themselves.
If cost and performance are good, it could very quickly rise to beat the F35 in new orders, this is really critical imo.
Iran is a no go. Iran and Saudis are fighting a proxy far right now in Yemen. Also, it would not be cool with Pakistan for China to sell something like FC-31 to Iran. At this point, they would not even sell J-10Cs to Iran. Russia will not be buying FC-31 when Su-57 has already started production builds.
I think these countries could be interested (assuming they don't get access to F-35) in some cases with ToT:
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Algeria
Brazil
South Africa
Egypt
Qatar
Oman
Kuwait
Yes, but I would watch out for Iran coming in from the cold.
Two things are happening right now..
One, US is trying to get Saudi to join Israel against Iran as the common enemy.
Two, China is trying to get all the countries in the region to settle their differences, and possibly unite in a pro-Palestinian coalition, with everyone signed up to the GSI and GDI.
What is more likely to happen? Saudi makes peace with Israel, and chooses the US and F35, or they become a sovereign nation, like Iran, make peace with their neighbors and unite for a just and popular cause, and choose China and the J31?
We may find out soon. Biden is there in a few days, let’s see who turns up from China after Biden leaves.
At some point, Xi needs to leave China and head to many of these countries. Either that or invite MBS to come.
btw, I personally want nothing to do with the Saudi regime. This is just what I think makes sense for China.
The problem is that this moment came a little too early. If this happened in 2026, you could see China having FC-31, GJ-11, 052D and a whole host item to offer to Saudi Arabia.
I don't see Iran and Saudis getting along. China will be wise to keep Iran at an arms length.
How's the weather at Tel Aviv?
Lol jokes aside china should not be selling any 5th gen fighters until 6th gen prototype(s) are at least flying.
A fc-31 developed in the side by foreign money, yeah fine okay. Off the shelf second rate equipment only. Mind you second rate is going to be pretty world leading these days. Plaaf 5th gen components are not for sale. No more than USAF F-35's.
J-35 is a naval fighter. A land based fc-31 turned export fighter is going to be different enough to j-35 and offer no security compromises even if it gets into the wrong hands... Well at most an insight into what would be the equivalent of plaaf 4.5 gen equipment at best, and probably (hopefully) not even the full variety of equipment.
Now who would want to buy that? Ones with money certainly wouldn't. Ones without won't see the value. Fighter aircraft sales isn't an easy market lol. Everyone wants the lucrative middle eastern markets because they have a near endless money pit and desire to buy in volume. Basically every other airforce has about a dozen or two fighters that are at least 1.5 gens behind. Are those going to be buying 5th gen anytime soon ? Nope so either Saudi Iran UAE whoever with the money choose to come and develop fc-31 with second tier and junior engineering teams from Avic and their own airforces/institutes or they end up buying some really watered down F-35s with a long wait.
Going by yourself means pouring hundreds of billions at least with no guarantee if any results. Usually requires at least Russia level of scientific and industrial capabilities which absolutely few countries have. Most wouldn't be able to develop a landing gear system give $100b and a decade. People underestimate the industrial competence required for even the most mundane things.
MwRYum
Major
More likely to squeeze Sleepy Joe in green lighting F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia.
Nonetheless, poor sod he is...how he has to swallow his pride to visit Saudi Arabia under such circumstances, MBS will be a fool to miss this opportunity...
There will likely be an economic recession for the next few years. Unless they have a war planned the only countries on that list who are likely to be interested are the Gulf Arab states.
This is pretty much it. The Saudis are getting tired of the Americans and are looking for a new "protector". Arabian weapons deals are massive cash cows for western defence companies, they literally throw millions in bribes to get them.
I would put a good deal on the table for them to look at, and remind them about all the rumours about "DRM" F-35s. Maybe a few "intercepted" telegrams picked up by PLA intelligence may sway them...
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