Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
While the news of these three deaths is tragic and suspicious, I doubt that there was actually fowl played involved, especially not from 'foreign intelligence agencies'.
For one thing, I just do not see why anyone would care enough to try, and even if there were hostile powers so inclined, there are more important projects they could be more interested in disrupting, things like the J20, WS10A, WS15 engines etc.
While project directors are critically important people and their deaths would no doubt set back the projects they are in charge of, no-one is irreplaceable, and there can be no question that the J16 or J31 programmes might collapse because of these deaths. Others will step up and the programme will survive and come to fruition.
Just look at the Y8 AWACS programme, a plane filled with experts and engineers, who are probably more important to the programme because they are actually responsible to doing the research and development rather than mainly managing, was lost, and the programme was still ultimately a success.
In addition, if there really was some conspiracy, it would be unlikely that anyone with the resources and access to assassinate top Chinese officials would be so stupid as to mount several assassinations in such a short period of time that even us - interested laymen, would become suspicious. I have no doubt that the relevant Chinese intelligence and counter-intelligence agencies are taking a another long hard look at these deaths again now.
This is not like Iran's nuclear programme where there is a ticking clock and where the target is effectively powerless to strike back. I cannot see any imminent time sensitive issues that would cause someone to throw caution to the wind and mount multiple assassinations in a matter of weeks rather than months or years; for another, the risk factor involved in green lighting such a mission is massive.
As already mentioned, it is almost a certain that these deaths are being scrutinised closely again, increasing the chances of detection of any fowl play, in addition, if China ever managed to get evidence of assassinations, China has all sorts of options to strike back hard, be it politically, diplomatically, economically or even militarily.
For one thing, I just do not see why anyone would care enough to try, and even if there were hostile powers so inclined, there are more important projects they could be more interested in disrupting, things like the J20, WS10A, WS15 engines etc.
While project directors are critically important people and their deaths would no doubt set back the projects they are in charge of, no-one is irreplaceable, and there can be no question that the J16 or J31 programmes might collapse because of these deaths. Others will step up and the programme will survive and come to fruition.
Just look at the Y8 AWACS programme, a plane filled with experts and engineers, who are probably more important to the programme because they are actually responsible to doing the research and development rather than mainly managing, was lost, and the programme was still ultimately a success.
In addition, if there really was some conspiracy, it would be unlikely that anyone with the resources and access to assassinate top Chinese officials would be so stupid as to mount several assassinations in such a short period of time that even us - interested laymen, would become suspicious. I have no doubt that the relevant Chinese intelligence and counter-intelligence agencies are taking a another long hard look at these deaths again now.
This is not like Iran's nuclear programme where there is a ticking clock and where the target is effectively powerless to strike back. I cannot see any imminent time sensitive issues that would cause someone to throw caution to the wind and mount multiple assassinations in a matter of weeks rather than months or years; for another, the risk factor involved in green lighting such a mission is massive.
As already mentioned, it is almost a certain that these deaths are being scrutinised closely again, increasing the chances of detection of any fowl play, in addition, if China ever managed to get evidence of assassinations, China has all sorts of options to strike back hard, be it politically, diplomatically, economically or even militarily.
ladioussupp
Junior Member
The news shown in the link is captured below. It dated at August 16 says that SAC delivered a new project (supposed as J-31) in mid of July. Colleagues of new aircraft R&D departments of SAC work hard and are united together. And four people including department head are mentioned in this news. I don't see any one pass away here. Is there something wrong with my eyes?
superdog
Junior Member
Indeed a sad news. However, he was not the project director of J-31. He was the deputy-director of the prototype manufacturing department which was responsible for making the J-31 prototype.
I don't expect any significant impact to the progress of the J-31 project.
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Equation
Lieutenant General
But still...any expert lost due to sudden illness or death can be a headache and some delays to the over all project.
Equation
Lieutenant General
I thought J-20 is CAC's baby? I figured it would be in CAC interest to develop a single engine of the J-20.
I agree. It is a setback and a loss. However it isnt crippling so the program won't be delayed too long.
I suspect both are victims of overworking and the stress and emotions from recent success probably caught up to them. RIP.
I wonder if the Chinese press ever suspected foul play. If this happened to western counterparts, no prizes for guessing who the western media will point their fingers at without concrete evidence.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Yeah one death even the heads of these programs aren't going to kill the program. Think about the contradiction of why bothering to secretly assassinate these people that will do nothing except make the trolls think their side is omipotent to kill at will anyone in China when history shows failure after failure of any clandestine act against China. They wouldn't be calling China to be transparent especially regarding the military if they were that deep into China.
Sure "they" (Whoever that may be.) would, depending on who the audience is. Making public calls for transparency helps sells the image of a secretive, (Evil!) China to their audience, regardless of whether it's true or not.
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